What events could maximize the number of swing states?

[CheapDollarEra?]

Discuss

[robocop]

What do you mean? Put more states in play than the "Magnificent Seven" that are regarded as such.

If anything a significant third and even fourth party candidate that has potential to turn some very red states and very blue states competitive similar to Perot in 1992.

[mjba257]

Third parties - RFK is already polling at Perot '96 levels - if he continues growing his movement, he could be at Perot '92 levels and that could fundamentally change the map:

- Alaska - the state is already favorable to third parties and with RCV, this is a state RFK could outright win
- Maine - ditto Alaska. Remember, Trump only narrowly lost the state in 2016 and I could see this being a true 3-way race with Biden, Trump, and RFK getting over 30%.
- Hawaii - after seeing the recent Dem caucus coupled with Biden's poor response to the Maui wildfires, there is ample evidence that the state will swing against him this time around. If RFK picks Tulsi as his running mate, that could boost him and put the state in play.
- Utah - Trump is unpopular here, RFK could appeal to anti-Trump conservatives just like McMullin in 2016.
- Colorado - once a purple state now has shifted to safe blue territory, but it's also been favorable to third parties in the past. You have areas like Denver, Boulder, the ski resorts that are full of white liberals who are angry at Biden and with the impression that CO is no longer competitive, they may feel "free" to cast a protest vote. Assuming Trump is able to keep his '2020 floor, that could put the state in play
- Minnesota - another state that is favorable to third parties. Trump almost won it in '16 and the state tends to shift against incumbents, so perfectly reasonable to assume it will right-shift this year. The results of the recent primary here show Biden has some serious problems, so this state may actually be in play this year.
- New Hampshire - same as Minnesota
- Kansas - the state's been shifting leftward in recent years, but right now, only a strong third party performance would make the state competitive. KS was one of Perot's best states in '92 and made it quite close. You could see a similar situation this time around.