Trump 2020 States = Biden 2024

[2016]

Which Trump 2020 States can President Biden realistically win in November?

[seskoog]

Realistically, only NC

[GAinDC]

North Carolina -- Definitely possible on a good night for Biden, especially if Mark Robinson's extreme views drive up Democratic turnout. However, in a close election nationwide, or a Trump win, NC will likely be Tilt or Lean R as it has been for years. Too much room for Dems to fall in rural areas and too many "countrypolitan counties"

Texas -- Dems shouldn't get their hopes up here. I do think Texas will turn blue at some point, but I don't think it will be this election, unless Biden is winning by Obama-08 levels. However, I do expect it to trend Dem based on the polling we've gotten so far

Ohio -- Biden's focus on unions and manufacturing should stop some of the bleeding in rust belt areas of the state. I also think Columbus and Cincy will swing left a good bit. So, that will keep it closer than many might expect, but I think Trump still wins comfortably. If Tim Ryan can't even beat JD Vance in places like the Mahoning Valley, it's clear to me that the rightward shift there is more about cultural issues than economic issues, and Biden can't really change that.

Florida -- I think we'll see some weird swings in Florida. I can see another big shift toward Trump in SE Florida -- maybe even winning Miami Dade and Palm Beach on a good night. However, in areas that are less culturally Cuban or Hispanic, I can envision notable shifts to Biden over issues like social security and medicare, abortion, and those controversial "anti woke" laws. However, this still means a solid Trump win in almost all scenarios.

Iowa -- LOL!

[Redban]

Alaska

RFK Jr will get 25-30%, opening the door for a quirky fluke win for Biden

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Alaska

RFK Jr will get 25-30%, opening the door for a quirky fluke win for Biden

Alaska has RCV though, and its possible RFK takes away from Biden as well. Alaskan Dems aren't particularly partisan.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Only North Carolina.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

None. If Democrats want a chance to flip another state, they need to nominate someone other than Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Depends on how far you stretch "realistic". All are "realistic" in a fringe scenario. However, from this list I'd say NC, TX, and AK are "realistic" on a good night.

NC just because it was already pretty close in 2020 and there's no signs it will lurch hard right - Biden basically just needs to repeat 2020 and growth in metro Raliegh and Charlotte put him over the edge.

TX - the demographics are there, but the state party and investment aren't. I'd argue if Dems actually took TX seriously in 2024, it could vote to the left of NC. It's realistic only if Dems choose to invest.

AK - The state has enough oddities and quirks that make it really hard to pin down - I don't think a Biden win is impossible, but the median outcome is still a decent Trump win. This is a state where the range of realistic outcomes is pretty wide, especially because of RCV.

[Dwarven Dragon]

NC > TX > OH > AK > IA > NE > KS > UT > FL

[CheapDollarEra?]

NC: The path would be reaching some white suburbans, Lumbee natives and CHIPS Act beneficiaries while keeping Biden 2020 voters.

[robocop]

Order of likelihood

NC - TX - FL - OH - IA.

Realistically only NC looks possible and as for TX and FL something extraordinary needs to happen. Ohio is a lost cause now if the "best" Dem candidate Tim Ryan could not even win in 2022.

[TDAS04]

NC and AK.

North Carolina is stilll lean Trump though. State elections tend by be close but rigid, so it may be a tough (but by no means impossible) state for Biden to actually flip.

Alaska’s a much more elastic, swingy state that’s hard to predict. Biden could end up pulling off a squeaker of an upset. Alaska could also just end up as a not-that-close Republican state (as it often does). In any case, Alaska is independent-minded enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if the state bucked the national trend by more than just a little (like when it swung towards Obama by more than any other state in 2012. Or during Carter’s national victory in 1976, when Carter only barely outperformed McGovern’s showing in Alaska from the previous election).

Biden is not winning any of the other states that he failed to carry the first time (barring some truly unforeseen circumstances, of course).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NC and AK.

North Carolina is stilll lean Trump though. State elections tend by be close but rigid, so it may be a tough (but by no means impossible) state for Biden to actually flip.

Alaska’s a much more elastic, swingy state that’s hard to predict. Biden could end up pulling off a squeaker of an upset. Alaska could also just end up as a not-that-close Republican state (as it often does). In any case, Alaska is independent-minded enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if the state bucked the national trend by more than just a little (like when it swung towards Obama by more than any other state in 2012. Or during Carter’s national victory in 1976, when Carter only barely outperformed McGovern’s showing in Alaska from the previous election).

Biden is not winning any of the other states that he failed to carry the first time (barring some truly unforeseen circumstances, of course).

Did you see the AK poll it was Biden +12

[DS0816]

Which Trump 2020 States can President Biden realistically win in November?

If any of those states were to switch from the 2020 Republican to the 2024 Democratic column…that would result in a 2024 Democratic hold for U.S. President.

Established pattern is this: When the opposition party wins a pickup for U.S. President, it is that opposition party’s pickup winner who flips states to win over the map.

You have to go back to the second half of the 19th century to find a pickup winning party which actually lost at least one state from the prior cycle (when they were the losing party).

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President…everything in their 2020 column will end up 2024 Republican holds. And what will flip are states from the 2020 Democratic column.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Which Trump 2020 States can President Biden realistically win in November?

If any of those states were to switch from the 2020 Republican to the 2024 Democratic column…that would result in a 2024 Democratic hold for U.S. President.

Established pattern is this: When the opposition party wins a pickup for U.S. President, it is that opposition party’s pickup winner who flips states to win over the map.

You have to go back to the second half of the 19th century to find a pickup winning party which actually lost at least one state from the prior cycle (when they were the losing party).

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President…everything in their 2020 column will end up 2024 Republican holds. And what will flip are states from the 2020 Democratic column.

Tell that to New Hampshire 2004.

[President Johnson]

North Carolina, total no brainer.

In order, I'd say: North Carolina > Texas > Florida

Florida is not realistic though. Iowa and Ohio are totally out of reach for Biden. It's like asking whether Trump could win Virginia and Coloroda. The answer is no.

[Utilitarian Governance]

None of them are likely, but North Carolina is possible if Biden regains his popularity and invests a lot of resources into it.

[Zohranism is OUR future]

Alaska

RFK Jr will get 25-30%, opening the door for a quirky fluke win for Biden

Why do you do this to yourself?