March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

NYT calls GA for Trump.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

82-16 Trump/Haley now.

I think Haley keeps doing well and gets closer to 20 when Atlanta reports.

A lot of votes were cast before she dropped out.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

5% in:

95 Biden
  3 Williamson
  2 Phillips

[Lief 🗽]

I would be very worried if I were the Trump campaign seeing these numbers. I do think the polls in this state are very off right now; they don’t pick up the black vote until late in the cycle (and sometimes not at all, as we saw in 2022).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I would be very worried if I were the Trump campaign seeing these numbers. I do think the polls in this state are very off right now; they don’t pick up the black vote until late in the cycle (and sometimes not at all, as we saw in 2022).

At this point in 2020, the most recent poll in Georgia was...Trump+8.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Extrapolating from primaries again lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let's remember to keep it civil, please.  It's not like there's anything exciting enough tonight to get worked up over.

[dspNY]

I would be very worried if I were the Trump campaign seeing these numbers. I do think the polls in this state are very off right now; they don’t pick up the black vote until late in the cycle (and sometimes not at all, as we saw in 2022).

I certainly think the polls that had Trump up high-single digits in GA were off. The Emerson poll with Trump +4 and the CBS poll today with Trump +3 seem accurate to me. I also think the big 3 in the Midwest (and Arizona, which is trending left quickly), are dead heats if those GA polls are right

[Ferguson97]

I would be very worried if I were the Trump campaign seeing these numbers.

The biggest thing that the Trump campaign should be worried about is Haley is pretty consistently getting about 15-25% of the vote in most states. The reason that this is different from protest votes against Biden in the primaries is that there is no real risk of the uncommitted voters switching to Trump in November (they'll stay home, leave it blank, or vote third party), but there's a very real risk of Haley voters swapping to Biden in the general.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obviously Trump and Biden win Georgia

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I would be very worried if I were the Trump campaign seeing these numbers.

The biggest thing that the Trump campaign should be worried about is Haley is pretty consistently getting about 15-25% of the vote in most states. The reason that this is different from protest votes against Biden in the primaries is that there is no real risk of the uncommitted voters switching to Trump in November (they'll stay home, leave it blank, or vote third party), but there's a very real risk of Haley voters swapping to Biden in the general.

Most Haley voters were already Biden 2020 voters though. Trump doesn't lose anything if they choose to back Biden again.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Trump not there?

[Holmes]

Why is Trump not there?

He'll clinch later tonight.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why is Trump not there?

Trump technically hasn't won enough delegates to clinch it yet until a few more hours.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is Trump not there?

Trump technically hasn't won enough delegates to clinch it yet until a few more hours.

What contest will put him over the top?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why is Trump not there?

Trump technically hasn't won enough delegates to clinch it yet until a few more hours.

What contest will put him over the top?

Washington I believe.

[Ferguson97]

What contest will put him over the top?

Pretty sure it's Guam lmao

[Pres Mike]

Damn thats satisfying

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There's a county called "Clinch" in GA, that's funny.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

The only thing I would read into that is that despite those numbers there is NOT a Republican turnout surge in heavily black areas, which kind of puts another damper on the "Black people love Trump" theory. Especially as this is the state of his mugshot.

[Gass3268]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

You going to say that when there is almost zero vote out of the Atlanta area?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump and Biden win Mississippi

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1767708114751549843