March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

And we're back!

Uncommitted is flopping pretty hard in Washington right now. Biden's in the 80s in King county.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/alexanderao/status/1767736500165267892

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The reason the Wikipedia page keeps going back and forth between having the images in the infobox and not, is there is a dispute whether RFK should be included or there isn't going to be one at all.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

You going to say that when there is almost zero vote out of the Atlanta area?

Everything is now counted in Georgia (almost)... and R turnout is still twice the D turnout in these uncompetitive races.

[NOVA Green]

And we're back!

Uncommitted is flopping pretty hard in Washington right now. Biden's in the 80s in King county.

Well I was just about getting ready to post something similar but perhaps from another perspective.

Biden is only at 85% in King County and I believe his current lowest place is Whitman County (Uni DEM PRIM vote).

Whatcom County also stands out a bit.

From way back in the dayz would have thought Skagit County would also be on that list...

Still it looks like Biden is generally performing quite well not only the larger metro areas, but also places perhaps which were more receptive to Bernie Sanders in the '16 and '20 DEM PRIMs.

But seriously Biden is doing quite well across the board in WA, regardless of a low TO election

[Crumpets]

Biden currently winning 55.9% of the two-way Biden-Trump vote in Washington State. Seems to track pretty smoothly with where the election seems to stand right now (same figure was 59.9% in November 2020).

[Dwarven Dragon]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

You going to say that when there is almost zero vote out of the Atlanta area?

Everything is now counted in Georgia (almost)... and R turnout is still twice the D turnout in these uncompetitive races.

Part of it is the early voting period was before Haley dropped out.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I was expecting Uncommitted and Williamson to do much better in Washington.

[Leipverse member] — Today at 8:30 PM
Looking at the Washington State results, it looks like uncommitted is doing very well in the most liberal counties, unsurprisingly, but is under-performing in Whitman County where WSU is, implying it's more a left thing than a young thing to vote uncommitted. Meanwhile, Phillips is doing the best in places with the highest number of Hispanics, except for Yakima, where he is still over-performing, but not by as much as you would expect if it were purely down to % Hispanic.

[NOVA Green]

Just checking out the WA PUB PRIM numbers...

Perhaps not surprisingly King County is currently #2 (34% Haley).

San Juan is naturally the obvious candidate for #1 (35% Haley).

What is up with Jefferson County (31% Haley).

[Iowa+3]

Three counties in WA and Fulton are still not decided, as is Washington state, but it's very unlikely that Haley takes anything.

Will Haley pick up any delegates in WA? She's over the cutoff at present, though might drop.

[Iowa+3]

CD7 is at 61, as is CD9. Still lots of votes left out there. Unlikely that Haley takes a delegate.

[Iowa+3]

Trump has swept Georgia. He can only be caught in King and San Juan counties in WA. That's just two counties.

[oldtimer]

Biden currently winning 55.9% of the two-way Biden-Trump vote in Washington State. Seems to track pretty smoothly with where the election seems to stand right now (same figure was 59.9% in 2020).

It's an indicator of the direction of the popular vote, translated for the small drift of the State over time you could say small Trump P.V. lead.

All in all in Washington State looks similar or marginally better than 2022 for republicans.

The Georgia picture looks like Texas, a catastrophy for Biden.
Opinion polls don't look wrong in Georgia at this moment.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden currently winning 55.9% of the two-way Biden-Trump vote in Washington State. Seems to track pretty smoothly with where the election seems to stand right now (same figure was 59.9% in 2020).

It's an indicator of the direction of the popular vote, translated for the small drift of the State over time you could say small Trump P.V. lead.

All in all in Washington State looks similar or marginally better than 2022 for republicans.

The Georgia picture looks like Texas, a catastrophy for Biden.
Opinion polls don't look wrong in Georgia at this moment.

Trump is currently beating the Dem field + Haley combined by a margin of over 15 points in Georgia.   He lost that by around 7 points in 2020.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Your liberal media at work.

https://twitter.com/ok_post_guy/status/1767732874944405890

[Steve from Lambeth]

I'm not sure why NYT and others have not awarded Trump the 8 delegates from Vermont yet, when it's pretty clear that Haley is far below 50 percent (49.3):

https://electionresults.vermont.gov

May I just say that Copeland Hanzas is an absolutely banging name for a politician?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it (said one of my high school history teachers...)

It has been the case in multiple elections that making conclusions about a general election based on primary turnout is a fool's errand. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia primary takeaways from the AJC's (very good) political reporters: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/pg-am-takeaways-from-georgias-presidential-primaries/4MGY7UIGX5CTDA542O45YJALS4/

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/CV__Politics/status/1767834999678750769?s=20

[Compuzled_One]

Oof, Palmer lost. Seems Biden didn't want to be embarased again.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/CV__Politics/status/1767834999678750769?s=20

Unless uncommitted was an option for Republicans here, and it doesn't look like it was, I don't see how this is a fair comparison. Everyone knew Haley and DeS were out of the race. Anyone who may have wanted to support them against Trump knew it would be a pointless trip. Whereas uncommitted works as a protest vote even if there's only 1 candidate in the race.

[wbrocks67]

There's still some vote to count in Washington so Uncommitted may end up gaining a point or two, but yeah, given the continued amount of stories around it, it flopped pretty hard in one of the states where it should've theoretically been doing better.

GA - not too many surprises here, it's wild that the black voter narrative keeps taking hold while they are Biden's strongest soldiers in these primaries, with 96% in SC and 95% in GA.

I'll also say, yes, most of Haley's voters were pre-election day, but let's be honest, even when GA early voting started, it was clear Haley was not winning and it was essentially a Trump protest vote. The fact that even with election day vote being largely for Trump, that Haley still got nearly 15% is kind of telling. The fact that that is being tampered down by many in the press while Uncommitted at single digits in most states continues to be propped up is completely unsurprising.

[wbrocks67]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

[Sir Mohamed]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

The media coverage is getting tiresome, imho.

[Senator Incitatus]

Just going to cross-post from the primary comparison thread:

Absolutely no way to spin the Georgia results as a positive for Biden. If he can’t turnout primary voters to even remotely keep pace with Trump, what hope does he have with lower-propensity general election voters, who we know favor Trump by greater margins?

Not sure who decided to suddenly invent this “primary turnout doesn’t matter” myth. It was the strongest early predictor of Obama’s win in 2008 and was superior to polling in predicting 2020, once both races were uncontested.

I don’t think caucuses are the same, or primaries on different dates or in different environments should be compared, but Georgia isn’t that, and Biden got flattened. He has an evident enthusiasm gap with every type of voter and is the underdog.