Predict the following candidates’ vote shares in the popular vote.
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Predict the following candidates’ vote shares in the popular vote.		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Predict the following candidates’ vote shares in the popular vote.  (Read 651 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: March 08, 2024, 03:06:28 PM »
-Joe Biden
-Donald Trump
-RFK Jr.
-Jill Stein
-Cornel West
-Libertarian
-No Labels
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Coconut Decider
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2024, 05:38:46 PM »
Right Now:

Biden 47.5%
Trump 46.5%
RFK 3%
Stein 1%
West .5%
Libertarian 1.5%
No Labels 0% (Doesn't run anybody)
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2024, 06:48:19 PM »
Biden: 49%.
Trump: 45%.
RFK: 3%.
Stein: 1%.
Libertarian: 1.5%.
Everyone else: 0.5%.
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Redban
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2024, 06:57:35 PM »
Trump 40
Biden 38
RFK Jr 17
Stein 1.5
West 0.5
Libertarian 2
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2024, 06:58:55 PM »
Trump: 48
Biden: 44
Other: 8
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Redban
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2024, 06:59:49 PM »
FYI for the RFK Jr doubters-

RCP Average

Trump 41
Biden 38
RFK Jr 13
West 3
Stein 2

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2024, 07:07:54 PM »

It won't last. Third party support will crater by November.
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CheapDollarEra?
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2024, 07:16:55 PM »
Biden 49
Trump 47
RFK 2%
Libertarian 1%
Green 1%
Rest 1%
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Redban
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« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2024, 07:28:46 PM »

let me guess, “People just need to learn more about RFK Jr, and his support will crater”? … that’s like the silly notion that Trump is ahead because “people don’t realize he will actually be the nominee”

RFK Jr has been in the spotlight for almost a full calendar year. He has name recognition, people have seen and heard him, and they have had time to think about him. Gary Johnson in 2016 did drop by about 6% (he was polling around 10% in May-June 2016, and he finished around 3.5%). But he didn’t become the Libertarian party nominee until  late May (and he didn’t really get on voter’s radars until April or so). So Johnson dropped as the election got nearer because people learned about him. If RFK Jr were going to drop the same way, he would have done so already

Since he may be on the debate stage, his support is more likely to rise actually
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2024, 09:16:05 PM »
Biden: 49%
Trump: 46%
RFK: 1%
Libertarian: 1%
West: <1%
Stein: <1%
No Labels: <1%
Other: <1%
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Coconut Decider
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« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2024, 09:43:50 PM »
Quote from: Redban on March 08, 2024, 07:28:46 PM

let me guess, “People just need to learn more about RFK Jr, and his support will crater”? … that’s like the silly notion that Trump is ahead because “people don’t realize he will actually be the nominee”

RFK Jr has been in the spotlight for almost a full calendar year. He has name recognition, people have seen and heard him, and they have had time to think about him. Gary Johnson in 2016 did drop by about 6% (he was polling around 10% in May-June 2016, and he finished around 3.5%). But he didn’t become the Libertarian party nominee until  late May (and he didn’t really get on voter’s radars until April or so). So Johnson dropped as the election got nearer because people learned about him. If RFK Jr were going to drop the same way, he would have done so already

Since he may be on the debate stage, his support is more likely to rise actually


This is not why Gary Johnson's vote share dropped. 3rd Party vote shares drop because at it gets closer to the election, people realize they don't want to waste their vote on somebody who doesn't have a chance at winning, so they pick somebody who does (or don't vote at all).

RFK will likely get under 5% when everything is said and done.
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Harry
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« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2024, 09:52:40 PM »
RFK was Tweeting out anti-vaxx stuff even today. He's a COMPLETE nut job. His absolute ceiling is 5%, and he probably doesn't get half that.
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xavier110
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« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2024, 10:23:09 PM »
-Joe Biden 49%
-Donald Trump 47%
-RFK Jr. 3%
-Jill Stein .3%
-Cornel West .1%
-Libertarian .5%
-No Labels nonfactor
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2024, 10:25:04 PM »
Quote from: Redban on March 08, 2024, 07:28:46 PM

let me guess, “People just need to learn more about RFK Jr, and his support will crater”? … that’s like the silly notion that Trump is ahead because “people don’t realize he will actually be the nominee”

RFK Jr has been in the spotlight for almost a full calendar year. He has name recognition, people have seen and heard him, and they have had time to think about him. Gary Johnson in 2016 did drop by about 6% (he was polling around 10% in May-June 2016, and he finished around 3.5%). But he didn’t become the Libertarian party nominee until  late May (and he didn’t really get on voter’s radars until April or so). So Johnson dropped as the election got nearer because people learned about him. If RFK Jr were going to drop the same way, he would have done so already

Since he may be on the debate stage, his support is more likely to rise actually


He's not on the ballot in 50 states how many times we have to tell you
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Redban
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2024, 10:36:55 PM »
Quote from: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on March 08, 2024, 10:25:04 PM
Quote from: Redban on March 08, 2024, 07:28:46 PM

let me guess, “People just need to learn more about RFK Jr, and his support will crater”? … that’s like the silly notion that Trump is ahead because “people don’t realize he will actually be the nominee”

RFK Jr has been in the spotlight for almost a full calendar year. He has name recognition, people have seen and heard him, and they have had time to think about him. Gary Johnson in 2016 did drop by about 6% (he was polling around 10% in May-June 2016, and he finished around 3.5%). But he didn’t become the Libertarian party nominee until  late May (and he didn’t really get on voter’s radars until April or so). So Johnson dropped as the election got nearer because people learned about him. If RFK Jr were going to drop the same way, he would have done so already

Since he may be on the debate stage, his support is more likely to rise actually


He's not on the ballot in 50 states how many times we have to tell you


Because he’s in the process of gathering signatures, and he has to announce his running mate before he can petition in some states. He already has the signatures for AZ, GA, NV, and soon MI
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here2view
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2024, 02:43:38 PM »
Biden 49.5%
Trump 46.5%
RFK Jr. 3%
Jill Stein <0.25%
Cornel West <0.25%
Libertarian/Others <1%
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Mr. Third-Wayist
Liam
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2024, 02:52:47 PM »
Biden - 49%
Trump - 46%
RFK - 3%
Libertarian - 1%
Green/no labels/others - <1%
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2024, 02:58:05 PM »
--Joe Biden (46.1%)
--Donald Trump (46.8%)
--RFK Jr. (3.3%)
--Green (0.6%)
--Cornel West (0.3%)
--Libertarian (0.9%)
--No Labes (0.4%)
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