What if Haley had been the only non-Trump candidate to run in the first place?

[AltWorlder]

Whether you view her campaign as a success or not, ultimately she did beat initial expectations, in at least getting some delegates and being able to rise among the pack at the debates.

My question is, is that rise based on her own merits in terms of her candidacy's ability to beat Trump, or was this more due to climbing over the trash heap of the other failed candidacies?

Chris Christie being in the race probably helped to energize the small minority of Never Trumpers who later switched to her, her beating up on Vivek Ramaswamy helped her image, and Ron DeSantis imploding probably had some sort of effect- she also outperformed him in their respective pre-primary expectations.

So would this change if she was Trump's sole target the entire time? I find it unlikely that she would be the only one running against Trump, you could at least expect Pence to stubbornly to be in the race, as well as odd ducks like Burgum or Hutchinson. But DeSantis could have easily decided not to make a go for it, which would have changed the formula. And if Christie didn't run, either his anti-Trump energy goes to her- or it doesn't arise at all, she wasn't aggressively making the cable news circuits attacking Trump like he did.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Around the same. The GOP is Donald Trump. It doesn't even have a platform anymore. It's platform is whatever Trump wants.

[Redban]

My question is, is that rise based on her own merits in terms of her candidacy's ability to beat Trump, or was this more due to climbing over the trash heap of the other failed candidacies?

^ Her own merits. She is an excellent candidate and politician: well spoken, alluring background, and physically presentable. When she first announced, people on this site (i.e. Biden stooges) mocked her campaign as a run for VP or a book deal. But long-time Republicans knew better. Back in 2012,  she had a prime speaking spot at the RNC Convention. I remember watching Bill O'Reilly on Fox News every night in 2012, and he hyped up Haley big time: it was recognized that she could be a major name for Republicans in the future. Christie was the top prospect for Republicans, but Haley might've been #2 (she and Jindal). People might've forgot, I guess, because Haley left public service for a few years before she ran for president, and the party shifted away from the Romney / McCain / Dubya / Karl Rove platforms. But she was known to be a A+ candidate for the GOP; people shouldn't have been so surprised to see her end up as the runner-up

Even if she had been Trump's sole target the whole time, she would have withstood him and finished just the same. DeSantis would have even survived Trump's attacks if he weren't so awkward, didn't bob his damn head all over the place, and could actually smile with grace.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Worst, she would have been the focused of all of Trump's attacks. I doubt she would have stayed in by Iowa

[Coldstream]

Probably about the same but it’d have been perceived as worse because part of her success was stepping over the more hyped up DeSantis.

[Rat]

She wouldn't have had any debates to give her media exposure, so she would've done far worse.

[AltWorlder]

She wouldn't have had any debates to give her media exposure, so she would've done far worse.

Maybe I should've focused on the fewer opponents instead of none, since it's more interesting to consider, but also hard to construct a consensus counterfactual to discuss about because anyone can say "okay DeSantis is there but Ramaswamy isn't or Christie is there but DeSantis isn't" etc.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Around the same. The GOP is Donald Trump. It doesn't even have a platform anymore. It's platform is whatever Trump wants.

Literally this.

[Averroës]

A+ poll design

[Iowa+3]

Trump would have won 80+% in Iowa, and her funding would have been pulled then.