Will we know the result on Election Night?

[oldtimer]

Those who know what to look for in the first Indiana and Kentucky returns have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go.

Not entirely sure how this works. McConnell swept the floor with his highly promoted D opponent in 2020. Meanwhile, Vigo County, IN was wrong for the first time in several decades.

Urban vs Rural counties, for example Fayette County vs Harlam County in Kentucky, or just Hardin County.

If you see the margins move you'll know which direction it's going, but only the direction not the magnitude.

[GoTfan]

Probably will be called before California closes for Trump.

Biden is already comfortably down and the economy is getting worse.

You've really stepped up your apocalyptic posts since the SOTU.

[2016]

When we know the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election will depend heavily if Arizona becomes decisive or not.

This Map here is entirely possible:



Trump taking WI & GA back while Biden takes MI & PA makes the most sense. If that happens and everything else stays the same compared to 2020 then Arizona is going to decide the 2024 Election.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If Trump takes PA, it will be a very early night. Biden realistically cannot win without PA.

[It's Time.]

AZ/NV are trash at counting votes but if the election doesn't come down to those two then I would say yes.

For the house though...It will probably take a few days because California sucks.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Probably will be called before California closes for Trump.

Biden is already comfortably down and the economy is getting worse.

You've really stepped up your apocalyptic posts since the SOTU.

SOTU made it clear Biden will be the nominee, even if it probably hurt him in the GE. Post-Hur and pre-SOTU I had some hope Biden would not be the nominee (which I prefer even if Trump’s chances of winning drops a lot from facing a stronger Democrat).

[pbrower2a]

Presidential elections are generally close -- or they aren't. You might expect a random scatter of electoral votes around the mean that lies between 57% ahd 65% of the electorl vote, bot since 100 that zone has had but one such result: 2012.

I'd place my bet againt a result near the median.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

When we know the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election will depend heavily if Arizona becomes decisive or not.

This Map here is entirely possible:



Trump taking WI & GA back while Biden takes MI & PA makes the most sense. If that happens and everything else stays the same compared to 2020 then Arizona is going to decide the 2024 Election.

WI isn't R Lean R with Baldwin

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Presidential elections are generally close -- or they aren't. You might expect a random scatter of electoral votes around the mean that lies between 57% ahd 65% of the electorl vote, bot since 100 that zone has had but one such result: 2012.

I'd place my bet againt a result near the median.

It won't be close the J6 thing will hurt Trump when people go vote not necessarily in the polls as I have said this many things mes to Redban

Due to fact polls arent permanent but Votes are

[pbrower2a]

Presidential elections are generally close -- or they aren't. You might expect a random scatter of electoral votes around the mean that lies between 57% ahd 65% of the electorl vote, but since 100 that zone has had but one such result: 2012.

I'd place my bet againt a result near the median.

It won't be close the J6 thing will hurt Trump when people go vote not necessarily in the polls as I have said this many things mes to Redban

Due to fact polls aren't permanent but Votes are

Electoral results are of course definitive. How one gets to them matters little in the end. We have had elections in which the eventual loser had no chance (Mondale in 1984), the loser's campaign collapsed late (Dukakis 1988), and of course when the loser was roundly depicted as a dangerous extremist and voters believed that. Republicans might want to see scandals or disasters hitting Biden... but that is their Hail Mary pass.

I see Democratic themes already. Trump is being shown as a dangerous radical who violates principles that most of us consider precious. Democrats are hitting Trump from the Right on foreign policy and support for the military.   

Polls do not predict electoral collapses. They can't predict scandals which gut a nominee' support or measure the result beforehand.

[Joe Biden 2028]

When we know the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election will depend heavily if Arizona becomes decisive or not.

This Map here is entirely possible:



Trump taking WI & GA back while Biden takes MI & PA makes the most sense. If that happens and everything else stays the same compared to 2020 then Arizona is going to decide the 2024 Election.

AZ was called before NV in both 2020 and 2022, so I expect AZ to be called first

Hot take, I expect NV to be closer than AZ

[ProgressiveModerate]

Well I feel like most people knew Biden would win in 2020 once the dem dumps started coming in Wisconsin, which iirc was the day after.

Yeah, and unless the election actually hinges on some swing state being within 0.1%, enough states should dump enough by midnight to have a pretty clear picture of who's winning.

Much of the slow counting was thanks to COVID. In 2022, WI and PA were much, much faster from what I remember.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Likely, since every election since 2004 has been that way, with the exception of 2020.

Then again, I'm not automatically using the Atlanticist/East Coast viewpoint to measure because it's silly to measure by the first time zone to leave to the next day.

This means it has to be at least 5 AM EST before it's truly the next day afaic.

And I suspect it'll be called around 4 AM EST, which is 11 PM in Hawaii.

I mean the Obama elections were won by a landslide and a pretty decent win respectively. Only 1 of the last 4 close-ish elections have been called on the election night itself and that was 2016. If Trump or Biden win a strong margin then we will get the call relatively quickly but most people expect another razor thin battle again.

[Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump takes PA, it will be a very early night. Biden realistically cannot win without PA.

Pennsylvania will take at least five hours to call no matter who wins it, which puts us to 1 AM ET

[2016]

If Trump takes PA, it will be a very early night. Biden realistically cannot win without PA.

Pennsylvania will take at least five hours to call no matter who wins it, which puts us to 1 AM ET

Yes, I think you are right on this. The Fetterman vs Oz Race wasn't called until just before 1am and Biden vs Trump will likely end up closer compared to that 2022 Senate Race.

[emailking]

I think the election should've been formally called Thursday night when Biden winning Pennsylvania went from very likely to obvious and locked in but the networks held off to Saturday morning for suspense, drama, and ratings.

First of all, that's conjecture. Second, it makes no sense. If the NBC decision desk reports Thursday night that they're calling PA, the network can get higher ratings that night than CNN & Fox who are planning to wait until Saturday morning to report they know that too.

[TodayJunior]

Yes. Georgia puts Biden over the top around 11:15pm EST.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Biden will win WI, PA and Mi

[Del Tachi]

Likely similar to 2016 and 2020:  we will have a clear indication of who's won, even if they haven't officially crossed 270 based on state calls.

[DS0816]

In every election this century except for 2008 and 2012, the election wasn't known known for 5 weeks (2000), 4 days (2020), early hours of the next morning (2016) and the next day (2004). We knew Obama would win at 11:00pm on the dot in 2008 as soon as CA, WA, OR and HI all finished voting and his re-election in 2012 at approximately 11:15pm ET.

When will we know who won in 2024?

My guess is … during the hour of 12:00 a.m. ET in the early hours of Wednesday 11.06.2024.

That is, my guess, when “270”—with a Republican pickup of Michigan—will become reached.

Right now, I am thinking: R+3, with 31 carried states, and 312 electoral votes. (2024 Republican pickups: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada.)

Map of “Timeline”:

[Cayahougac]

I think it’ll be pretty clear who will win even if no network has called it by midnight.

Great point, I'll have a good idea of whos gonna win when indiana starts getting 95% in counties. I miss when Vigo county would tell us the winner before 7PM EST stupid rural shift.

[BigVic]

Comes down to AZ, PA, NV