Will we know the result on Election Night?

[BigVic]

In every election this century except for 2008 and 2012, the election wasn't known known for 5 weeks (2000), 4 days (2020), early hours of the next morning (2016) and the next day (2004). We knew Obama would win at 11:00pm on the dot in 2008 as soon as CA, WA, OR and HI all finished voting and his re-election in 2012 at approximately 11:15pm ET.

When will we know who won in 2024?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Well I feel like most people knew Biden would win in 2020 once the dem dumps started coming in Wisconsin, which iirc was the day after.

[TheTide]

Those who know what to look for in the first Indiana and Kentucky returns have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I maintain that Europeans will know the outcome of the election on Friday afternoon.

I also remember my parents literally waking me up to news of Trump's win at 7:45am on Wednesday the 9th. Glorious.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Yes

[Dwarven Dragon]

Those who know what to look for in the first Indiana and Kentucky returns have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go.

Not entirely sure how this works. McConnell swept the floor with his highly promoted D opponent in 2020. Meanwhile, Vigo County, IN was wrong for the first time in several decades.

[Roll Roons]

Those who know what to look for in the first Indiana and Kentucky returns have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go.

Not entirely sure how this works. McConnell swept the floor with his highly promoted D opponent in 2020. Meanwhile, Vigo County, IN was wrong for the first time in several decades.

Yes, but rural IN and KY swung much less to the right in 2020 than they did in 2016, while Hamilton and Oldham, as the richest and most educated counties in their respective states, swung left by double digits.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't know about election "night" per se, but I think a 2004 situation where we get the race call the next morning is probable. I will watch Georgia on Tuesday, but Michigan counted ballots relatively fast. The only problem is if it comes down to Arizona/Nevada, then that's going to be literal hell for a week.

[CheapDollarEra?]

I think teh result will be know by the next day.

[The Mikado]

Unless the combo of Arizona and Nevada are decisive, we'll know by Wednesday at the latest.

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Please don't let Arizona and Nevada be decisive.

[Roll Roons]

If at least four of GA, MI, NC, PA, WI can be called for the same candidate, then yes. Those five states breaking 3-2 in either direction is how AZ and/or NV could become decisive.

Unless one of the first five states is Florida 2000-level close, they should all be callable by noon on Wednesday at worst.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would count 2016 as knowing the result on Election night given Trump was declared the winner before it became midnight here on the west coast. In 2004 NBC/FOX had Bush had 269 before it was midnight on the west coast as well and Bush would be reelected with 269

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

We know the broad result now: the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, attempts to overthrow the Constitution and destroy the United States of America. The only questions remaining are what excuse they use to try and justify their treason, and whether or not we allow them to succeed.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I would count 2016 as knowing the result on Election night given Trump was declared the winner before it became midnight here on the west coast. In 2004 NBC/FOX had Bush had 269 before it was midnight on the west coast as well and Bush would be reelected with 269

2016 was absolutely election night. I would coin the term election "night" to be any time between the Kentucky poll closings and sunrise the next morning. But once people start preparing for work/school the next day then you are now onto Day 2.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Probably the next day it won’t be like 2020

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Probably will be called before California closes for Trump.

[Rand]

Probably will be called before California closes for Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Probably will be called before California closes for Trump.

Biden is already comfortably down and the economy is getting worse.

[Ferguson97]

I think it’ll be pretty clear who will win even if no network has called it by midnight.

[Mr. Smith]

Likely, since every election since 2004 has been that way, with the exception of 2020.

Then again, I'm not automatically using the Atlanticist/East Coast viewpoint to measure because it's silly to measure by the first time zone to leave to the next day.

This means it has to be at least 5 AM EST before it's truly the next day afaic.

And I suspect it'll be called around 4 AM EST, which is 11 PM in Hawaii.

[The Mikado]

Well I feel like most people knew Biden would win in 2020 once the dem dumps started coming in Wisconsin, which iirc was the day after.

Literally dozens of people here were calling the final map by Wednesday morning, with Arizona being the biggest question mark (my hot take is that Fox News was wrong to call AZ for Biden early and it was legit too close to call for several days).

I think the election should've been formally called Thursday night when Biden winning Pennsylvania went from very likely to obvious and locked in but the networks held off to Saturday morning for suspense, drama, and ratings.

[7,052,770]

In the sense that we basically knew that Trump had won before midnight in 2016 and that Biden had won before midnight in 2020, yes, probably.

[oldtimer]

In the sense that we basically knew that Trump had won before midnight in 2016 and that Biden had won before midnight in 2020, yes, probably.

In 2016 the winner was obvious by 9:30pm EST.

In 2020 it was obvious when the first counties from Indiana and Kentucky came in that it was going to be a nailbiter, it took a bit longer then.

[7,052,770]

In the sense that we basically knew that Trump had won before midnight in 2016 and that Biden had won before midnight in 2020, yes, probably.

In 2016 the winner was obvious by 9:30pm EST.

In 2020 it was obvious when the first counties from Indiana and Kentucky came in that it was going to be a nailbiter, it took a bit longer then.

The NYT needle was pointing Georgia toward Biden before midnight. Also the Economist remaining-votes model (G. Elliot Morris I believe) had Biden at 95% of winning (or 98% if you locked in Arizona for him, which Fox News had but the Economist wasn't ready to do yet) before midnight.

[7,052,770]

For the record, I just read through some excerpts of the 2020 Election Night thread (fun times!), and my memory was correct - many of knew that Biden was a very strong favorite before midnight, with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin looking good, and Pennsylvania being a complete mystery. There were some Democratic posters still dooming, but most of that had died off in the last few hours of the day.