How does the SOTU affect the 2024 election

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It doesn't directly affect everything, but it should give a lot of relief to Democrats who were sincerely wondering if he still capable of a performance like this or not.

This is basically the right answer.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Hurts Biden. Biden got the worst marks in SOTU history in the CNN flash poll. Only 64% of watchers had a positive impression. It was 72% last year and was between 70 and 78% under Trump.

64% positive=hurts Biden?  What are you smoking?

[TheTide]

This is a key point. Of course there probably also weren't too many Democrats watching Trump's SOTUs.

https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/1765911317590798817?s=20
I'd be interested to know if a SOTU has ever gotten negative ratings. I'm not sure it's possible in such a highly polarised era. It's going to have a disproportionately high number of people who like the President, whoever it is.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hurts Biden. Biden got the worst marks in SOTU history in the CNN flash poll. Only 64% of watchers had a positive impression. It was 72% last year and was between 70 and 78% under Trump.

64% positive=hurts Biden?  What are you smoking?

The audience is mostly Democrat. Biden should get over 70% as he did the last 2 years.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Hurts Biden. Biden got the worst marks in SOTU history in the CNN flash poll. Only 64% of watchers had a positive impression. It was 72% last year and was between 70 and 78% under Trump.

64% positive=hurts Biden?  What are you smoking?

The audience is mostly Democrat. Biden should get over 70% as he did the last 2 years.

To say it hurts him is wild though.  You could claim lack of enthusiasm, people who should be his audience aren't watching, etc.  But that doesn't meant he speech is a net negative/hurts him.  Very weird take, but I shouldn't be surprised.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

In the CNN flash poll, 45% came into the speech saying they felt Biden's policies helped them. After the speech, 62% said his policies would help them. But sure, disastrous night for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

In the CNN flash poll, 45% came into the speech saying they felt Biden's policies helped them. After the speech, 62% said his policies would help them. But sure, disastrous night for Biden.

Yeah, unsurprisingly, people are ignoring the actual data. I have no idea what the actual composite of viewing audience was (likely skewed D as it usually does for party in power), however CNN's flash poll was not super Democrat at all.

36% D, 33% I, 30% R, so only a +6D on Republicans. If you're wondering why his margin was down a bit from 2023's (the 72% from last year), it's because more Democrats were in their flash poll. Their poll last year was 41% D, 31% R, 28% I, so D+10 on margin.

And like you said, what matters is the original # too. Take for example last year, 52% came into the poll with a positive impression, while this year was only 45%. So he was starting at a lower point; gaining 17% from that initial audience is nothing to sneaze at!

[wbrocks67]

Also, some in this thread are also unsurprisingly being pretty dense about all this. The SOTU itself doesn't matter much for the election; but the event and Biden showing the opposite of 'Senile Joe' is probably one of the biggest developments thus far. It changes the entire narrative around him, and that's a pretty huge affect on the campaign.

Honestly the handwringing over Biden's age looks very dumb in hindsight now. Yes, he's still old, but no one can honestly say the man last night is incapable of handling the job.

[Ferguson97]

It helps because he spoke for over an hour in a completely lucid manner. It’ll help fight against the nonsensical dementia narrative.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

In the CNN flash poll, 45% came into the speech saying they felt Biden's policies helped them. After the speech, 62% said his policies would help them. But sure, disastrous night for Biden.

Yeah, unsurprisingly, people are ignoring the actual data. I have no idea what the actual composite of viewing audience was (likely skewed D as it usually does for party in power), however CNN's flash poll was not super Democrat at all.

36% D, 33% I, 30% R, so only a +6D on Republicans. If you're wondering why his margin was down a bit from 2023's (the 72% from last year), it's because more Democrats were in their flash poll. Their poll last year was 41% D, 31% R, 28% I, so D+10 on margin.

And like you said, what matters is the original # too. Take for example last year, 52% came into the poll with a positive impression, while this year was only 45%. So he was starting at a lower point; gaining 17% from that initial audience is nothing to sneaze at!

A 4 point differential in party ID. This does not explain a 8 point drop in favorability ratings.

[Illiniwek]

I have a new, slightly more negative thought this morning.

The SOTU helps Biden in the sense that if that is the Biden we get the rest of the year, then I have a good amount of confidence that Biden will overcome this narrative of him not being fit and able for the job. However, that is only going to help Biden on one flank. I think the campaign will start bringing moderates in the political center home as Biden appears more capable than the low expectations led many to believe, and as trump is more in the spotlight with his regular nonsense.

However, a problem still exists on the other flank. Unless Biden changes course and starts being actually anti-Israel, the children voters that believe Biden is "Genocide Joe" just will not budge. They will not come out to vote for him. It is going to be written in stone by the fall that these voters are going to rather stay at home and there is no convincing the to come out and vote for the better option if he is supposedly not good enough for them. They are so dug in that it doesn't matter if Biden can paint himself as an objectively better candidate.

I'm still invigorated after last night. But unfortunately, we have to accept the fact that these online radicals are just not ever going to come around. How many of them are there? Will this sink the campaign? I'm not sure.

[wbrocks67]

In the CNN flash poll, 45% came into the speech saying they felt Biden's policies helped them. After the speech, 62% said his policies would help them. But sure, disastrous night for Biden.

Yeah, unsurprisingly, people are ignoring the actual data. I have no idea what the actual composite of viewing audience was (likely skewed D as it usually does for party in power), however CNN's flash poll was not super Democrat at all.

36% D, 33% I, 30% R, so only a +6D on Republicans. If you're wondering why his margin was down a bit from 2023's (the 72% from last year), it's because more Democrats were in their flash poll. Their poll last year was 41% D, 31% R, 28% I, so D+10 on margin.

And like you said, what matters is the original # too. Take for example last year, 52% came into the poll with a positive impression, while this year was only 45%. So he was starting at a lower point; gaining 17% from that initial audience is nothing to sneaze at!

A 4 point differential in party ID. This does not explain a 8 point drop in favorability ratings.

The sample going from 41% D to 36% D can absolutely produce a result like that. It was also a 6% overall drop - 71% last year, 65% this year.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hurts Biden a lot.

[wbrocks67]

I have a new, slightly more negative thought this morning.

The SOTU helps Biden in the sense that if that is the Biden we get the rest of the year, then I have a good amount of confidence that Biden will overcome this narrative of him not being fit and able for the job. However, that is only going to help Biden on one flank. I think the campaign will start bringing moderates in the political center home as Biden appears more capable than the low expectations led many to believe, and as trump is more in the spotlight with his regular nonsense.

However, a problem still exists on the other flank. Unless Biden changes course and starts being actually anti-Israel, the children voters that believe Biden is "Genocide Joe" just will not budge. They will not come out to vote for him. It is going to be written in stone by the fall that these voters are going to rather stay at home and there is no convincing the to come out and vote for the better option if he is supposedly not good enough for them. They are so dug in that it doesn't matter if Biden can paint himself as an objectively better candidate.

I'm still invigorated after last night. But unfortunately, we have to accept the fact that these online radicals are just not ever going to come around. How many of them are there? Will this sink the campaign? I'm not sure.

I mean I think we have to realize that while these voters exist, they are not a huge bloc, and young voters writ large will likely still come home to Biden. At this point, I think there's a balance between not completely ignoring them, but also realizing that a lot of them are just not going to be swayed no matter what. It is what it is. The only thing you/we/he can do is focus on the people who are participating in good faith and can be swayed. A lot of these online far leftists types should just be ignored at this point.

[Duke of York]

Hurts Biden a lot.

how?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hurts Biden a lot.

how?

He alienated the middle. It was a good speech if he wanted to win a competitive primary.

[wbrocks67]

Hurts Biden a lot.

how?

He alienated the middle. It was a good speech if he wanted to win a competitive primary.

idk why i'm even bothering but once again: Independents liked the speech according to that CNN poll, so no, you're wrong. again.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hurts Biden a lot.

how?

He alienated the middle. It was a good speech if he wanted to win a competitive primary.

I thought it was alright.  Certainly didn't feel alienated, anyway. 

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hurts Biden a lot.

how?

He alienated the middle. It was a good speech if he wanted to win a competitive primary.

idk why i'm even bothering but once again: Independents liked the speech according to that CNN poll, so no, you're wrong. again.

Biden got the lowest ratings in SOTU history. That is bad.

[Beet]

All we're asking is that Biden take the same stance on Israel as Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush Sr., Reagan, and every other president-- be willing to stand up to it, and the same stance as Bernie, Warren, dozens of members of Congress, and his own vice president and call for an immediate cease-fire, and that this cease-fire be permanent. That is not some radical extreme position. I don't need to be won over. I've already endorsed Biden. I'm going to support him, because of the alternative.

But I also happen to be opposed to the slaughter of innocent children, who are being slaughtered with weapons Biden is providing. A million flowery SOTU speeches given with the vigor of a 20-year old wont change that. If that makes me some kind of silly radical, so be it. When we propose Biden to push for a cease-fire, we are told that if America, supposedly the leader of the free world, the world's sole superpower, and head, as Biden said last night, of the greatest military alliance in the world, chooses of its own free will not to provide weapons for an immoral slaughter, that a tiny nation surrounded by enemies of less than 10 million people, is going to blackmail us by going even harder against the Palestinians. I find this to impugn upon the honor of the U.S. If Israel chooses to commit war crimes, that is on them, not on America. We can stop defending them at yhe UN and see how they do. They keep saying they are our ally, but they aren't. We have been their ally since 1947 and saved them again and again from the Arabs. We recognized them in '47. We saved them in '67. We saved them in '73. We've saved them for their entire existence at the UN. But they've never caused anything but headaches for the U.S.

Nonetheless, Israel is a great democracy that has a right to exist. We should still be their ally. And of course, anti-Semitism must be stamped out in our politics where ever it is found. But we do not owe them support or weapons for an endless slaughter- a wanton murder, of over 30,000 people and counting.

Ending support is morally the right thing to do. It's the right thing in terms of America's interests. And it's the right thing for Biden's chances. The only way it looks wrong os from the standpoint of the Israeli Likud party. But the president of the United States ought to look out for America as the top priority.

And even though I'm supporting Biden though he refuses to call for a cease fire, I can't guarantee that millions of others who care about this issue will. You keep saying its a small minority. Sure. But elections are won on the margins. When the returns are coming in on election night in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, and that NY Times meter is swinging, you can bet you're going to be praying for every vote Biden can get. The under 30 group of voters that this Forum loves to attack and bash went foe him by 24 points last time and if it wasn't for them, your precious Biden would never be president in the first place.

Biden was right last night. American democracy is on the line in this election. International order is on the line. Women's rights are on the line. But when he flubs it all up and loses, the one group of people I won't feel sorry for are his hacks on this Forum. You guys will truly deserve it.

[oldtimer]

I watched it.

1. Biden didn't die on stage.
2. Biden threw lots of red meat to the base.
3. It was the poorest received SOTU speech in polling history.

So I guess it helped, but not much.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Is there a way riverwalk can be banned or something?

[wbrocks67]

All we're asking is that Biden take the same stance on Israel as Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush Sr., Reagan, and every other president-- be willing to stand up to it, and the same stance as Bernie, Warren, dozens of members of Congress, and his own vice president and call for an immediate cease-fire, and that this cease-fire be permanent. That is not some radical extreme position. I don't need to be won over. I've already endorsed Biden. I'm going to support him, because of the alternative.

But I also happen to be opposed to the slaughter of innocent children, who are being slaughtered with weapons Biden is providing. A million flowery SOTU speeches given with the vigor of a 20-year old wont change that. If that makes me some kind of silly radical, so be it. When we propose Biden to push for a cease-fire, we are told that if America, supposedly the leader of the free world, the world's sole superpower, and head, as Biden said last night, of the greatest military alliance in the world, chooses of its own free will not to provide weapons for an immoral slaughter, that a tiny nation surrounded by enemies of less than 10 million people, is going to blackmail us by going even harder against the Palestinians. I find this to impugn upon the honor of the U.S. If Israel chooses to commit war crimes, that is on them, not on America. We can stop defending them at yhe UN and see how they do. They keep saying they are our ally, but they aren't. We have been their ally since 1947 and saved them again and again from the Arabs. We recognized them in '47. We saved them in '67. We saved them in '73. We've saved them for their entire existence at the UN. But they've never caused anything but headaches for the U.S.

Nonetheless, Israel is a great democracy that has a right to exist. We should still be their ally. And of course, anti-Semitism must be stamped out in our politics where ever it is found. But we do not owe them support or weapons for an endless slaughter- a wanton murder, of over 30,000 people and counting.

Ending support is morally the right thing to do. It's the right thing in terms of America's interests. And it's the right thing for Biden's chances. The only way it looks wrong os from the standpoint of the Israeli Likud party. But the president of the United States ought to look out for America as the top priority.

And even though I'm supporting Biden though he refuses to call for a cease fire, I can't guarantee that millions of others who care about this issue will. You keep saying its a small minority. Sure. But elections are won on the margins. When the returns are coming in on election night in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, and that NY Times meter is swinging, you can bet you're going to be praying for every vote Biden can get. The under 30 group of voters that this Forum loves to attack and bash went foe him by 24 points last time and if it wasn't for them, your precious Biden would never be president in the first place.

Biden was right last night. American democracy is on the line in this election. International order is on the line. Women's rights are on the line. But when he flubs it all up and loses, the one group of people I won't feel sorry for are his hacks on this Forum. You guys will truly deserve it.

It feels like you're just looking for reasons to be annoyed.

A) The US has not sent Israel military aid since December. It's now been 4 months.
B) Biden and Harris have both called for cease-fires. It may not be the exact verbiage that you specifically want, but they have. It's an irrefutable fact

The discourse around Gaza/Israel is just getting absurd, I'm sorry. We're approaching levels of delusion where people are simply not listening to what Biden/Harris are saying and just making things up.

It's weird that you care more about "owning" Biden "hacks" on this forum than about actual legitimate issues that would be in peril if Trump won.

[wbrocks67]

I watched it.

1. Biden didn't die on stage.
2. Biden threw lots of red meat to the base.
3. It was the poorest received SOTU speech in polling history.

So I guess it helped, but not much.

You guys keep saying this without the context and it comes off incredibly disingenuous, but I should not be surprised, so alas

Also didn't realize issues like abortion, democracy, immigration, economy were 'red meat' to only Democrats - that seems pretty naive and delusional

[oldtimer]

I watched it.

1. Biden didn't die on stage.
2. Biden threw lots of red meat to the base.
3. It was the poorest received SOTU speech in polling history.

So I guess it helped, but not much.

You guys keep saying this without the context and it comes off incredibly disingenuous, but I should not be surprised, so alas

Also didn't realize issues like abortion, democracy, immigration, economy were 'red meat' to only Democrats - that seems pretty naive and delusional

Things that Democrat voters consider common sence are red meat for them as much as what Republican voters consider common sence for them is red meat for them.