Rate Virginia if Trump picks Youngkin as VP
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Rate Virginia if Trump picks Youngkin as VP		 « previous next »
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Question: Your rating?
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Tilt D		  
#6
Lean D		  
#7
Likely D		  
#8
Safe D		  
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Author Topic: Rate Virginia if Trump picks Youngkin as VP  (Read 476 times)
Woody
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« on: March 07, 2024, 05:45:50 PM »
title. Will the ticket flip any counties from 2020?
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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2024, 06:54:05 PM »
Still Likely D. VPs don't move the needle that much.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2024, 07:00:27 PM »
Lean D (to Likely D)
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2024, 07:13:11 PM »
Still safe D.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2024, 08:01:12 PM »
Safe D, Biden is gonna win AZ so WI, CO, PA, NV, MI and PA equals 270 without GA and NC. Keep in mind Gallego and Kaine are still gonna win
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Duke 🇺🇸
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2024, 08:21:55 PM »
Likely D
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2024, 10:50:05 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2024, 11:03:33 PM by Steve from Lambeth »
Lean D.

Quote from: Woody on March 07, 2024, 05:45:50 PM
Will the ticket flip any counties from 2020?
Chesterfield, Prince Edward, Montgomery, Stafford and James City Counties; and Lynchburg, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach Cities - all of which were won by Trump in 2016 and Youngkin in 2021, but were narrow Biden wins in 2020 (and are in fact the only Trump-Biden-Youngkin counties, unless I've gotten my sums wrong) - would be good shouts.

If Trump doesn't flip at least the latter two cities, I don't see him winning the state. If he does, for how big they are (they represented 8% of votes cast in 2020), there's a chance but it would depend on bipartisan turnout elsewhere.

For instance, Youngkin '21 pretty consistently outran Trump/Pence '20 by ~7% in the NoVa metro; a Trump/Youngkin '24 ticket would come at least a couple of percentage points closer, but I'm not sure whether it would go the whole nine yards or not. Ergo, Lean D (and almost - almost - Likely).
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2024, 10:54:37 PM »
Likely Democratic. Considering that Republicans lost the House of Delegates and didn't State Senate last year despite Youngkin's campaigning it is clear he holds little appeal. His win was more than likely a fluke.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2024, 11:28:05 PM »
D Kaine is still on the ballot
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2024, 11:32:27 PM »
It would just destroy Youngkin's reputation among Dem-leaning voters.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2024, 03:20:43 AM »
Likely D; any Trump win would likely require a high turnout scenario where juiced rural turnout can actually outvote places like NoVa which tend to be at showing up. Youngkin on the ticket won’t bring NoVa back to 2012 numbers, but could be enough to prevent another cycle of shifting left.
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