Why are people ignoring the fact that Nikki Haley massively overperformed?

[Mr. Ukucasha]

The online discourse about Haley's recently-suspended campaign might lead you to believe she only got 5% of the vote. In reality, despite running against the most popular figure in the Republican Party with inter-party approval ratings greater than any former President, Haley got approximately 1/3 of the vote! That's insane! Why isn't anyone discussing how this does not bode well for Donald Trump? Haley overperformed all things considered. 

[Joe Biden 2028]

A good portion of her support are Democrats crossing over to vote in the Republican Primary. Another portion are anti-Trump protest voters, not folks who actually like Nikki Haley

[AltWorlder]

I had previously wanted to make a thread like "What if Haley had been the only non-Trump candidate to run in the first place?" and I can't decide if she would have done better or worse than she did. Chris Christie being in the race probably helped to energize the small minority of Never Trumpers who later switched to her, her beating up on Vivek Ramaswamy helped her image, and Ron DeSantis imploding probably had some sort of effect. (She also outperformed him in terms of pre-primary expectations, that's significant.)

I guess what I'm saying is I don't know if her success was solely her own (in terms of success against Trump), but being helped by climbing over the trash heap of the other failed candidacies.

[SWE]

The media's desperation to pretend there's a horse race when neither party was ever going to provide it created a narrative where expectations were that Haley should have given Trump a run for his money, so winning one state and a third of the vote looks like a flop. In reality, this was a delusional expectation, and one state and a third of the vote is an insane over performance. But because of how it's framed, people are treating it like she was expected to get Bernie 2020 numbers but got Tim Ryan numbers, when the reality is closer to the opposite of that

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

The media's desperation to pretend there's a horse race when neither party was ever going to provide it created a narrative where expectations were that Haley should have given Trump a run for his money, so winning one state and a third of the vote looks like a flop. In reality, this was a delusional expectation, and one state and a third of the vote is an insane over performance. But because of how it's framed, people are treating it like she was expected to get Bernie 2020 numbers but got Tim Ryan numbers, when the reality is closer to the opposite of that

It's kind of worth noting there's not just a Trump underperformance but a HUGE Haley overperformance, imagine telling someone a year ago how much better she would do than Ron DeSantis.

[2016]

The online discourse about Haley's recently-suspended campaign might lead you to believe she only got 5% of the vote. In reality, despite running against the most popular figure in the Republican Party with inter-party approval ratings greater than any former President, Haley got approximately 1/3 of the vote! That's insane! Why isn't anyone discussing how this does not bode well for Donald Trump? Haley overperformed all things considered. 

You are wrong on this one.

EXIT POLLS
NH: Trump wins Republicans over Haley 74-24
SC: Trump wins Republicans over Haley 70-30
And in VA, NC, CA Trump won over 80 % of Republicans + beat her among Independents in CA, NC.

That is not an overperforming Campaign when you can't win over core Republican Voters.

[President Johnson]

A good portion of her support are Democrats crossing over to vote in the Republican Primary. Another portion are anti-Trump protest voters, not folks who actually like Nikki Haley

More independents than Democrats I would assume. But overall a fair point. I think there's also junk of standard conservatives who like Trump's policies, not his personality though. Some of them will absolutely fall in line and vote for him in November.

[SWE]

The media's desperation to pretend there's a horse race when neither party was ever going to provide it created a narrative where expectations were that Haley should have given Trump a run for his money, so winning one state and a third of the vote looks like a flop. In reality, this was a delusional expectation, and one state and a third of the vote is an insane over performance. But because of how it's framed, people are treating it like she was expected to get Bernie 2020 numbers but got Tim Ryan numbers, when the reality is closer to the opposite of that

It's kind of worth noting there's not just a Trump underperformance but a HUGE Haley overperformance, imagine telling someone a year ago how much better she would do than Ron DeSantis.

Eh, if someone a year ago told me someone other than DeSantis would fill the expected DeSantis role I'd absolutely buy it

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

The online discourse about Haley's recently-suspended campaign might lead you to believe she only got 5% of the vote. In reality, despite running against the most popular figure in the Republican Party with inter-party approval ratings greater than any former President, Haley got approximately 1/3 of the vote! That's insane! Why isn't anyone discussing how this does not bode well for Donald Trump? Haley overperformed all things considered. 

Because this is an ultra-high-stakes horserace, damn it! Now stop posting (or thinking) and go watch CNN/FOX News while re-subscribing to the NYT and posting about all of it on X/Meta from now until next February, so they can all get that sweet revenue from reselling access to your eyeballs.

/s

[Beet]

Because Trump's raw vote is incredibly high. He has more votes than Biden in virtually every state, even though Biden is an incumbent president.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Because Trump's raw vote is incredibly high. He has more votes than Biden in virtually every state, even though Biden is an incumbent president.

That's...completely normal?

Romney received double as many votes as Obama did in the 2012 primary in Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Massachusetts

[wbrocks67]

Because Trump's raw vote is incredibly high. He has more votes than Biden in virtually every state, even though Biden is an incumbent president.

exactly... read that again and then realize the point you're trying to make isn't doing what you're thinking it is

[Beet]

Because Trump's raw vote is incredibly high. He has more votes than Biden in virtually every state, even though Biden is an incumbent president.

That's...completely normal?

Romney received double as many votes as Obama did in the 2012 primary in Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Massachusetts

That's because its his home state. Romney received about 158,000 votes in Virginia, for example. Trump received over 350,000 votes there.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Because a bunch of Democrats and Biden 2020 voters showed up for her in open primaries like NH, and Vermont. Among actual Republicans she got destroyed outside of Utah (which has a uniquely mormon anti-Trump flair to it). I will admit she did well enough up to South Carolina. But after Michigan, she lost a bunch of key counties she was supposed to win like Loudon, Travis, Mecklenburg, and even San Francisco!

The question we should be asking isn't how many Haley voters will vote Biden, but rather how many voted Biden in 2020. Because if they are Biden-Biden, Trump isn't losing ground with them.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Because Trump's raw vote is incredibly high. He has more votes than Biden in virtually every state, even though Biden is an incumbent president.

That's...completely normal?

Romney received double as many votes as Obama did in the 2012 primary in Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Massachusetts

That's because its his home state. Romney received about 158,000 votes in Virginia, for example. Trump received over 350,000 votes there.

And in Illinois Romney received 2/3 of Obama's vote with under 50% and there were more votes cast in the R primary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Illinois

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because ultimately the voters she got are beyond miniscule in the grand scheme of things.

[Iowa+3]

The media's desperation to pretend there's a horse race when neither party was ever going to provide it created a narrative where expectations were that Haley should have given Trump a run for his money, so winning one state and a third of the vote looks like a flop. In reality, this was a delusional expectation, and one state and a third of the vote is an insane over performance. But because of how it's framed, people are treating it like she was expected to get Bernie 2020 numbers but got Tim Ryan numbers, when the reality is closer to the opposite of that

It's kind of worth noting there's not just a Trump underperformance but a HUGE Haley overperformance, imagine telling someone a year ago how much better she would do than Ron DeSantis.

The magical genie tells me that "Haley will do better than 2004 Ron Paul". Umm. Sure. Thanks magical genie. 

[Cassius]

Is it an overperformance? Sure, because she stayed in the race for long enough to be the only non-Trump option on the ballot, she was able to corral the non-insignificant anti-Trump/Trump sceptic Republican vote (whilst Trump has enjoyed a comfortable lead in all polling, the polling has also always shown a significant appetite for a non-Trump candidate amongst a good chunk of the Republican primary vote) and top it up with some independents and Democrats crossing over in order to give her non-derisory scores. She still lost almost right across the board, Trump is still cruising to the nomination, and the overwhelming majority of Haley voters will go on to vote for him in November (as did the 55% of Republican primary voters who didn’t back Trump in 2016). In the grand scheme of things her performance doesn’t alter the dynamics of the race one iota.

[DS0816]

Re: Why are people ignoring the fact that Nikki Haley massively overperformed?

I don’t find this compelling.

The people who are trying to make Nikki Haley happen are Democrats, their allies in media, and Never Trump people.

The former governor of South Carolina did not “massively [overperform].” Donald Trump is not the current president. She did get wins in District of Columbia and Vermont, the two best-performed in Election 2020 as carried by now-Democratic incumbent Joe Biden.

[pbrower2a]

Maybe Trump popularity isn't as high as it was.