Hawaii Democratic caucus results

[Eraserhead]

RATINGS CHANGE:

Hawaii: Safe D >>> Likely D

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a late Republican push here, like in 2004.

It'd ultimately be a waste of money like it was back then. That said Trump having the best showing here for a Republican since Bush '04 is very possible.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Oh boy, here we go. Guys, please keep in mind that there are over 760K registered voters in Hawaii, and only 1.5K showed up for this—a turnout of 0.2% (Hawaii does not have party registration)

Please keep it in your pants.

*rapidly taps sign*

It seems that some of you have missed this.

[ottermax]

It's very difficult to make sense of these results. I attended the caucus in 2008 which was a blowout for Obama to no surprise.

Because turnout was so low I suspect the main reason for the high uncommitted vote is just very liberal  and pacifist voters showing up. Tulsi Gabbard had a genuine base of anti-war voters here (lots of white hippie types who are very politically engaged in Hawaii), so it wouldn't be too surprising for them to show up to a low turnout caucus.

However I also wonder if there is a protest vote by conservative Democrats in urban Honolulu as we saw a massive red shift in Filipino and Native Hawaiian and other working class Asian areas - I doubt they would show up to the caucuses however, but it is a possibility.

Overall low turnout in the general doesn't really help Trump because he thrives on low propensity, low information voters which are plentiful in Hawaii but historically do not vote... plus the high turnout type of voter in Hawaii is generally very liberal or in the Biden coalition. Small possibility that a third party vote makes this close, but unless we get turnout similar to 2020 for Trump it should remain in Biden's corner barring some odd combo of events (massive drop in Dem turnout combined with unusually high Trump turnout).

[Woke Frenzy]

So, no county results? ☹