Is Minnesota a Michigan 2016 waiting to happen?

[heatcharger]

Many people are saying this.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No, and Biden is gonna win MI, Craig is out of the S race

[ProgressiveModerate]

No for several reasons, the big one being MI 2016 was a huge upset basically no one expected - by nature of so many people talking about MN that same shock factor just wouldn't be there.

I also think MI 2016 made Dems much more cautious about the rust belt states in general including MN. If the Biden team starts to have any unease around the state, they will start investing there. In 2016, Clinton largely took a MI win for granted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. Entirely because the Biden campaign looks to not be taking anything for granted out of safe-keeping, whether the primary results suggest danger or not.

Michigan in 2016 was pretty much taken for granted.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

No Republican has won statewide in Minnesota in almost 20 years and Donald Trump, in a rematch of a race he lost by seven points, is not going to be the one to break that streak.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

MI was due to the state genuinely wanted Trump. If MN flips it would be because of 3rd party vote share.

[Redban]

You’re asking this question on the wrong site. All the Biden supporters on here believe that every state either trends towards Biden or remains the same as 2020.

MI was due to the state genuinely wanted Trump. If MN flips it would be because of 3rd party vote share.

Trump won Michigan 2016 by about 11k. Johnson got 172k, Stein got 51k, and Castle got 16k. You can’t revise history by saying third party wasn’t there in 2016

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

You’re asking this question on the wrong site. All the Biden supporters on here believe that every state either trends towards Biden or remains the same as 2020.

MI was due to the state genuinely wanted Trump. If MN flips it would be because of 3rd party vote share.

Trump won Michigan 2016 by about 11k. Johnson got 172k, Stein got 51k, and Castle got 16k. You can’t revise history by saying third party wasn’t there in 2016

Yeah Ds should be so worried about Trump AVERAGING 3 PTS WHEN PROVISIONS BALLOTS IN CLOSE STATES LAST TIME WENT TO Biden not Trump

[kwabbit]

Minnesota 2016 was almost a Michigan 2016 waiting to happen. Minnesota 2024 will be on the table if Biden is losing bad, but not otherwise. Trump's coalition was optimized for the upper Midwest in 2016 but has gotten less so now, especially in the most educated upper midwest state of Minnesota. The Twin Cities suburbs are just too anti-Trump.

[wbrocks67]

It's wild that Trump performed worse in Minnesota on Tuesday and yet the doom is over Biden in that state.

[Ljube]

Maybe.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

MI was due to the state genuinely wanted Trump. If MN flips it would be because of 3rd party vote share.

Trump won Michigan 2016 by about 11k. Johnson got 172k, Stein got 51k, and Castle got 16k. You can’t revise history by saying third party wasn’t there in 2016

For once, Redban actually makes a decent-ish point. Although context is important: third party performance in Michigan in 2016 was about on par with that nationwide.

It's true that Minnesota has a strong third party performance often, but a big factor is that Minnesota law makes it easy for random candidates to hijack third party ballot lines and serve as a protest vote. For example if you remember the Independence Party from Jesse Ventura (that Ventura had f[inks] all to do with ever since he left office), it was regularly running both far-left whackjobs and far-right whackjobs for state legislative elections because it was easier to just file as the IP candidate and win the primary unopposed if no one else ran than run as an independent or setting up a new party. Same thing with those weed parties which as I've explained many times the votes for was clearly a generic protest vote thing and didn't have much to do with weed or anything ideological.

Now it's true that third party performance will no doubt be stronger in Minnesota than in 2020 because evidence indicates that will be the case basically everywhere, there's plenty of voters who don't want Biden vs. Trump again, but to draw the conclusion that the primary results mean that Biden is in unique trouble I think requires answering some other questions, most notably what percentage of the uncommitted vote won't vote for Biden in November. Because uncommitted received fewer votes than the total third party vote in 2020, and it's pretty absurd and flying against all evidence and even media coverage to assume that all or even most won't vote for Biden in November. One also needs to ask what share of Haley voters won't vote for Trump, yes, many aren't really Republicans anymore and some (like my brother) never were to begin with, but that's still a number that's double that of uncommitted. This is sort of an interesting case where people are both overthinking and underthinking the situation, overthinking in reading too much into the primary numbers, and underthinking in not considering all these other questions or also the raw numbers and not just the percentages.

[heatcharger]

This is sort of an interesting case where people are both overthinking and underthinking the situation

Oh.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You’re asking this question on the wrong site. All the Biden supporters on here believe that every state either trends towards Biden or remains the same as 2020.

MI was due to the state genuinely wanted Trump. If MN flips it would be because of 3rd party vote share.

Trump won Michigan 2016 by about 11k. Johnson got 172k, Stein got 51k, and Castle got 16k. You can’t revise history by saying third party wasn’t there in 2016

I believe every Stein vote cost Hillary a net 0.25 votes. So Stein had just enough to flip MI (but not WI or PA), but you have to look at the other 3rd party candidates as well.

[robocop]

Minnesota 2016 was a golden opportunity that just missed out, same with New Hampshire. But not in 2024.