In what states will Biden-won precincts be a majority of the population?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  In what states will Biden-won precincts be a majority of the population?
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Author Topic: In what states will Biden-won precincts be a majority of the population?  (Read 170 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: March 06, 2024, 01:25:49 PM »

Basically if you add up the population of all the Biden won precincts, is it a majority of the states population? I did this for 2020 Pres, splitting tied precincts and no-vote precincts population evenly between Biden and Trump (generally very few precincts are actually tied in any given state, and no-vote precincts tend to have 0 people)

Here were the results:
 


Notably, Trump precincts had more population in MI, WI, PA, and GA despite being won by Biden - the opposite was true in Texas where Biden won precincts won a majority of the population suprisingly easily.

Here were states where both candidates received above 40%:

Trump%-Biden%

IA: 58.7% - 41.3%
AK: 55.5 - 44.5
WI: 54.1 - 45.9
FL: 53.7 - 46.3
NC: 52.4 - 47.6
MI: 52.0 - 48.0
PA: 50.7 - 49.3
GA: 50.4 - 49.6
AZ: 48.7 - 51.3
TX: 45.8 - 54.2
ME: 44.4 - 55.6
NH: 42.7 - 57.3
MN: 42.3 - 57.6

Another notable state is NV; despite being close presidentially Biden precincts account for over 2/3rds of the states population.

This would be my personal prediction: safe >99% confidence candidate's precincts will be worth a majority of the population, likely >85%, lean > 65%, and tilt >50%:


 
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