ProgressiveModerate
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Posts: 18,520

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« on: March 06, 2024, 01:25:49 PM » |
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Basically if you add up the population of all the Biden won precincts, is it a majority of the states population? I did this for 2020 Pres, splitting tied precincts and no-vote precincts population evenly between Biden and Trump (generally very few precincts are actually tied in any given state, and no-vote precincts tend to have 0 people)
Here were the results:
Notably, Trump precincts had more population in MI, WI, PA, and GA despite being won by Biden - the opposite was true in Texas where Biden won precincts won a majority of the population suprisingly easily.
Here were states where both candidates received above 40%:
Trump%-Biden%
IA: 58.7% - 41.3% AK: 55.5 - 44.5 WI: 54.1 - 45.9 FL: 53.7 - 46.3 NC: 52.4 - 47.6 MI: 52.0 - 48.0 PA: 50.7 - 49.3 GA: 50.4 - 49.6 AZ: 48.7 - 51.3 TX: 45.8 - 54.2 ME: 44.4 - 55.6 NH: 42.7 - 57.3 MN: 42.3 - 57.6
Another notable state is NV; despite being close presidentially Biden precincts account for over 2/3rds of the states population.
This would be my personal prediction: safe >99% confidence candidate's precincts will be worth a majority of the population, likely >85%, lean > 65%, and tilt >50%:
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