Who wins Minnesota?

[Eraserhead]

Good lord there is a lot of stupidity on this thread.

- Most of uncommitted vote came from the most liberal areas of the state. There were a few Minneapolis based state house districts where it got the majority. These people will piss and moan about everything but they are not voting Trump and they will not stay home. 95%+ of them will vote Biden and then bitch about it to everyone they meet.

- Turnout was miniscule on both sides. Democratic turnout was worse because a large number Democrats who will vote for Biden in the fall voted for Haley (more accurately against Trump) because it was an open primary with no drawback. I had two family members who did this.

- Dean Phillips is an embarrassment but he is a homestate embarrassment so he drew more votes than he would elsewhere.

This is a great example of how at my job a lot of people really f[inks] themselves up by doing weird things that make no sense because of how much they overthink their loan accounts while people who don't pay much attention to their student loans and just do things like consolidate old ones or hand in PSLF applications as soon as they hear it's an option are actually better off. The fact that we pay closer attention to the details is leading to overthinking that normies wouldn't do. No one outside of Atlas is making a fuss over the uncommitted vote, and all local talk I read is basically like "well yeah I voted uncommitted but I'm sure voting for Biden over Trump in November."

There's been a decent amount of national coverage of the Uncommitted vote in Michigan and now Minnesota. If you want to argue that it isn't justified, that's fine but it is out there.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win MN 52/45 just like Tina Smith and Klobuchar won their races, it's a 303 map with wave insurance

But what Ds are gonna turnout in a Boring TX, IL and MN S primary but hardcore Ds that's why turnout in IL will be low

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Good lord there is a lot of stupidity on this thread.

- Most of uncommitted vote came from the most liberal areas of the state. There were a few Minneapolis based state house districts where it got the majority. These people will piss and moan about everything but they are not voting Trump and they will not stay home. 95%+ of them will vote Biden and then bitch about it to everyone they meet.

- Turnout was miniscule on both sides. Democratic turnout was worse because a large number Democrats who will vote for Biden in the fall voted for Haley (more accurately against Trump) because it was an open primary with no drawback. I had two family members who did this.

- Dean Phillips is an embarrassment but he is a homestate embarrassment so he drew more votes than he would elsewhere.

This is a great example of how at my job a lot of people really f[inks] themselves up by doing weird things that make no sense because of how much they overthink their loan accounts while people who don't pay much attention to their student loans and just do things like consolidate old ones or hand in PSLF applications as soon as they hear it's an option are actually better off. The fact that we pay closer attention to the details is leading to overthinking that normies wouldn't do. No one outside of Atlas is making a fuss over the uncommitted vote, and all local talk I read is basically like "well yeah I voted uncommitted but I'm sure voting for Biden over Trump in November."

There's been a decent amount of national coverage of the Uncommitted vote in Michigan and now Minnesota. If you want to argue that it isn't justified, that's fine but it is out there.

I mean it's fine to cover it, but numerically how much does it matter? Like what percentage of those uncommitted voters won't vote for Biden in November? Even if it was 100% that'd still be a pretty miniscule portion of his margin of victory, and I think it's going to be much closer to 10% than 100%.

Admittedly Hillary's margin of victory was slightly lower than the uncommitted vote total, but again that's only a major issue if we assume that almost all of it doesn't vote for Biden in November, which is something even if the national coverage is admitting isn't true, I read an article recently with some interviews with uncommitted voters who all emphasized "but yes I'm voting for Biden over Trump."

I'm even willing to bet that the percentage of uncommitted voters who vote for Biden is significantly than the percentage of Haley voters who vote for Trump. (Yes that is largely because a good chunk of those Haley voters were essentially RINOs, but still.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is this a joke thread?

No. Just typical overreaction on this forum.

[Beet]

When the RCP average was at +7.2 Biden nationally in 2020, Biden won Minnesota by +7.1. That suggests the winner in Minnesota is the winner of the RCP average.

The RCP average is currently +2.2 Trump. Therefore, if the election were held today, Trump becomes the first Republican to win Minnesota since Richard M. Nixon in 1972. He is also just as corrupt as Nixon was, ironically.

[mjba257]

MN has been close in every election in the 21st century that Republicans won. Also keep in mind, third parties tend to do well here. So if Trump wins nationally and RFK gets over 5%, absolutely MN is in play.

[Eraserhead]

When the RCP average was at +7.2 Biden nationally in 2020, Biden won Minnesota by +7.1. That suggests the winner in Minnesota is the winner of the RCP average.

The RCP average is currently +2.2 Trump. Therefore, if the election were held today, Trump becomes the first Republican to win Minnesota since Richard M. Nixon in 1972. He is also just as corrupt as Nixon was, ironically.

RCP averages are sh**t/Republican propaganda. That said if the election were held today, Trump would probably win by a few points and if he did I don't think him carrying Minnesota by a very narrow margin is out of the question.

[Tekken_Guy]

When the RCP average was at +7.2 Biden nationally in 2020, Biden won Minnesota by +7.1. That suggests the winner in Minnesota is the winner of the RCP average.

The RCP average is currently +2.2 Trump. Therefore, if the election were held today, Trump becomes the first Republican to win Minnesota since Richard M. Nixon in 1972. He is also just as corrupt as Nixon was, ironically.

Well Biden only won by 4.5 points.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When the RCP average was at +7.2 Biden nationally in 2020, Biden won Minnesota by +7.1. That suggests the winner in Minnesota is the winner of the RCP average.

The RCP average is currently +2.2 Trump. Therefore, if the election were held today, Trump becomes the first Republican to win Minnesota since Richard M. Nixon in 1972. He is also just as corrupt as Nixon was, ironically.

This is a bad strawman argument. Polling errors could be different and MN could easily trend to the left or right of the nation. There is also logically no inherent connection between the national RCP average and how MN votes.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Biden wins by 7

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

This also kind of vaguely reminds me of another notable example where more informed people ended up being stupider in analysis: After Feinstein died some people were putting out some bizarre galaxy brain scenarios that involved Newsom appointing Kamala Harris to the seat. Now if you asked any normie about that scenario and its likeliness their thoughts would be "Haha what? LOL no, never happening", but there were still plenty of people on Elections Twitter and a few here (and to emphasize it was far more a thing on the former, but not unheard of here) insisting it was a realistic possibility because *ridiculously contrived scenario*. More information leads to overthinking leads to stupid conclusions at times.

[Mr. Smith]

Still Biden.