Who wins Minnesota?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who do you think wins Minnesota in 2024?

[Move Forward]

Joe “Brandon” Biden

[TechbroMBA]

I’ll give it to Brandon, but definitely possible. I feel much better about it than Virginia for going on offense.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still Biden - while the primary results showed some not great signs for him, Minnesota was still a state he carried by 7%, and I just don't see where Trump gains enough to close that margin. Basically all the areas of the state Trump is relying on are shrinking.

MN has always felt like a demographic whack-a-mole for the GOP. As soon as they start improving in one part of the state, they develop a problem in another part - they come close a lot of the time but never have a winning coalition.

[Red Willow]

Biden 49-46.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden+5.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Klobuchar is on the Ballot Biden won it by 6 pts last time and Klobuchar will win by 7, this isn't 2004

Again comparing IA right turn to MN and WI is silly Reynolds won by 30 in 22 and Walz and Evers won by 4

Biden/Klobuchar 52/45
Biden/Smith 52/45 2020

Reynolds +30 Dejear and Gov Evers +4 in 22

[seskoog]

Biden

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

The one who likes ice cream more.

[Crumpets]

Harold_Stassen_Jeb_meme.jpeg

[oldtimer]

Since it's the only big surprise of the Primaries, I have to go with Trump on that.

[Tekken_Guy]

Since it's the only big surprise of the Primaries, I have to go with Trump on that.

You think it’s enough to erase a 7 point deficit?

[oldtimer]

Since it's the only big surprise of the Primaries, I have to go with Trump on that.

You think it’s enough to erase a 7 point deficit?

It starts to make sense with the Selzer Iowa poll + the Primary, that something is going on in that area that is unusual.

[President Johnson]

Biden: 50.2%
Trump: 44.5%

I think third party vote share will be higher in the state than usual, even of the national vote here is just slightly up from 2020.

[DrScholl]

The problem with oldtimer's deranged logic is that uncommitted in Minnesota is almost entirely over a single issue and that doesn't at all correlate with any poll out of Iowa. Biden won the Iowa primary by more than he did Minnesota so clearly the dynamics were much different there (Uncommitted got only 3% there).

[Eraserhead]

The problem with oldtimer's deranged logic is that uncommitted in Minnesota is almost entirely over a single issue and that doesn't at all correlate with any poll out of Iowa. Biden won the Iowa primary by more than he did Minnesota so clearly the dynamics were much different there (Uncommitted got only 3% there).

Think it was a mail-in caucus where most of the voting was done a while ago so not sure I'd directly compare them.

Of course, Minnesota and Iowa are very different states anyway, especially these days.

[oldtimer]

The problem with oldtimer's deranged logic is that uncommitted in Minnesota is almost entirely over a single issue and that doesn't at all correlate with any poll out of Iowa. Biden won the Iowa primary by more than he did Minnesota so clearly the dynamics were much different there (Uncommitted got only 3% there).

Think it was a mail-in caucus where most of the voting was done a while ago so not sure I'd directly compare them.

Of course, Minnesota and Iowa are very different states anyway, especially these days.

Well if Trump wins Iowa by 15 it should show in Minnesota, and the Primary does indeed suggest that something is up.

[DrScholl]

The problem with oldtimer's deranged logic is that uncommitted in Minnesota is almost entirely over a single issue and that doesn't at all correlate with any poll out of Iowa. Biden won the Iowa primary by more than he did Minnesota so clearly the dynamics were much different there (Uncommitted got only 3% there).

Think it was a mail-in caucus where most of the voting was done a while ago so not sure I'd directly compare them.

Of course, Minnesota and Iowa are very different states anyway, especially these days.

Well if Trump wins Iowa by 15 it should show in Minnesota, and the Primary does indeed suggest that something is up.

Can you not read? Uncommitted was clearly driven by single issue voting on Gaza. The more rural areas like Iowa didn't even show much protest vote against Biden.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden 52/45 just like Klobuchar will win and so will Schiff

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The state has been traumatized by George Floyd it's a D WC state like Iowa

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I don't think all of the Uncommitted votes were over Gaza primarily, a lot of people I've seen posting indicated they just voted that as a generic protest vote even if just for reasons like "Biden's too old", they probably got the idea from Gaza protesters but regardless. And they always emphasize they'll still vote for Biden in the general election.

The biggest impact from it might come from who wins those Uncommitted delegates at the state and congressional district conventions and possible impact on the party platform, but even that doesn't mean much.

[Minnesota Mike]

Good lord there is a lot of stupidity on this thread.

- Most of uncommitted vote came from the most liberal areas of the state. There were a few Minneapolis based state house districts where it got the majority. These people will piss and moan about everything but they are not voting Trump and they will not stay home. 95%+ of them will vote Biden and then bitch about it to everyone they meet.

- Turnout was miniscule on both sides. Democratic turnout was worse because a large number Democrats who will vote for Biden in the fall voted for Haley (more accurately against Trump) because it was an open primary with no drawback. I had two family members who did this.

- Dean Phillips is an embarrassment but he is a homestate embarrassment so he drew more votes than he would elsewhere.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Good lord there is a lot of stupidity on this thread.

- Most of uncommitted vote came from the most liberal areas of the state. There were a few Minneapolis based state house districts where it got the majority. These people will piss and moan about everything but they are not voting Trump and they will not stay home. 95%+ of them will vote Biden and then bitch about it to everyone they meet.

- Turnout was miniscule on both sides. Democratic turnout was worse because a large number Democrats who will vote for Biden in the fall voted for Haley (more accurately against Trump) because it was an open primary with no drawback. I had two family members who did this.

- Dean Phillips is an embarrassment but he is a homestate embarrassment so he drew more votes than he would elsewhere.

This is a great example of how at my job a lot of people really f[inks] themselves up by doing weird things that make no sense because of how much they overthink their loan accounts while people who don't pay much attention to their student loans and just do things like consolidate old ones or hand in PSLF applications as soon as they hear it's an option are actually better off. The fact that we pay closer attention to the details is leading to overthinking that normies wouldn't do. No one outside of Atlas is making a fuss over the uncommitted vote, and all local talk I read is basically like "well yeah I voted uncommitted but I'm sure voting for Biden over Trump in November."

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Good lord there is a lot of stupidity on this thread.

- Most of uncommitted vote came from the most liberal areas of the state. There were a few Minneapolis based state house districts where it got the majority. These people will piss and moan about everything but they are not voting Trump and they will not stay home. 95%+ of them will vote Biden and then bitch about it to everyone they meet.

- Turnout was miniscule on both sides. Democratic turnout was worse because a large number Democrats who will vote for Biden in the fall voted for Haley (more accurately against Trump) because it was an open primary with no drawback. I had two family members who did this.

- Dean Phillips is an embarrassment but he is a homestate embarrassment so he drew more votes than he would elsewhere.

Turnout among Ds is low all around because there is no D Prez Primary, but it was a S primary in CA Klobuchar is gonna win like Tina Smith by 7,, so didn't bother to vote in MN D S primary

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

IL D primary iny home state is gonna be down on 3/19 no Senate race this year