Why did Biden underperform in the MN primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When all is said and done, it looks like he'll end up with 70% which is by far his worst primary.

His underperformance mostly comes from metro MSP. Some of this can be explained by Somali protest voters in MSP. However, this is nowhere near enough to explain his larger underperformance. At face value, MN is otherwise a state that's a pretty good demographic fit for him - very white, decently college educated, older, highly politically engaged, ect. I would've thought large margins in MSP suburbs would easily cancel out any Somali and Arab protest votes simillar to what happened with the rest of Wayne County, MI outvoting heavily Arab Dearborn.

Also unlike MI there was no serious effort to have people vote "uncommitted"

What happened?

I feel like precinct results for some of the core MSP counties would really help answer this question so plz post if you find them.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If you are implying he is gonna lose MN in fall, no he won't Klobuchar is on the ballot. I have it 90 D, of course he won't win it by that much but he won't underperforming Rs are using IA as a measurement of MN and WI which is silly Grassley won by 12 and Reynolds by 30 and Gov Evers won WI by 4

[ProgressiveModerate]

If you are implying he is gonna lose MN in fall, no he won't Klobuchar is on the ballot. I have it 90 D, of course he won't win it by that much but he won't underperforming Rs are using IA as a measurement of MN and WI which is sill Grassley won by 12 and Reynolds by 30 and Gov Evers won WI by 4

I would still rate MN as Lean/Likely D. I really want to try and understand what happened here to evaluate if Biden could actually be in trouble in MN.

[The Mikado]

When all is said and done, it looks like he'll end up with 70% which is by far his worst primary.

His underperformance mostly comes from metro MSP. Some of this can be explained by Somali protest voters in MSP. However, this is nowhere near enough to explain his larger underperformance. At face value, MN is otherwise a state that's a pretty good demographic fit for him - very white, decently college educated, older, highly politically engaged, ect. I would've thought large margins in MSP suburbs would easily cancel out any Somali and Arab protest votes simillar to what happened with the rest of Wayne County, MI outvoting heavily Arab Dearborn.

Also unlike MI there was no serious effort to have people vote "uncommitted"

What happened?

I feel like precinct results for some of the core MSP counties would really help answer this question so plz post if you find them.

Strong suspicion that the biggest difference here vs Michigan is that Michigan had national fixation on "test for Biden" etc and an actual visible campaign that ended up countermobilizing turnout among Biden supporters. See the relative sky high turnout in Michigan.

Minnesota was much more under the radar so ordinary Biden supporters just didn't show up. MN's Dem side turnout is dismal tonight. The Uncommitted people got their people out without the Biden voters realizing they needed to countermobilize.

Will be interesting to see Washington State next week, the last Dem primary in a left-coded state with Uncommitted a factor. (Kentucky might have a really strong Uncommitted performance but those...won't be left wing protest votes)

I kind of suspect Uncommitted will underperform in Washington for a similar reason it has in Colorado tonight, another state people might assume Uncommitted would do really well in: mailing ballots to every voter greatly increases turnout and will basically mobilize the normie side of the party that might not even really realize there's a primary afoot.

[7,052,770]

His only credible opponent is from there, for starters. Give him an extra 5% or so to account for the people who really do like Biden but also wanted to vote for their Congressman, whom they also like.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When all is said and done, it looks like he'll end up with 70% which is by far his worst primary.

His underperformance mostly comes from metro MSP. Some of this can be explained by Somali protest voters in MSP. However, this is nowhere near enough to explain his larger underperformance. At face value, MN is otherwise a state that's a pretty good demographic fit for him - very white, decently college educated, older, highly politically engaged, ect. I would've thought large margins in MSP suburbs would easily cancel out any Somali and Arab protest votes simillar to what happened with the rest of Wayne County, MI outvoting heavily Arab Dearborn.

Also unlike MI there was no serious effort to have people vote "uncommitted"

What happened?

I feel like precinct results for some of the core MSP counties would really help answer this question so plz post if you find them.

Strong suspicion that the biggest difference here vs Michigan is that Michigan had national fixation on "test for Biden" etc and an actual visible campaign that ended up countermobilizing turnout among Biden supporters. See the relative sky high turnout in Michigan.

Minnesota was much more under the radar so ordinary Biden supporters just didn't show up. MN's Dem side turnout is dismal tonight. The Uncommitted people got their people out without the Biden voters realizing they needed to countermobilize.

Will be interesting to see Washington State next week, the last Dem primary in a left-coded state with Uncommitted a factor. (Kentucky might have a really strong Uncommitted performance but those...won't be left wing protest votes)

I kind of suspect Uncommitted will underperform in Washington for a similar reason it has in Colorado tonight, another state people might assume Uncommitted would do really well in: mailing ballots to every voter greatly increases turnout and will basically mobilize the normie side of the party that might not even really realize there's a primary afoot.

This is definitely a fair point in terms of counter-mobilization; uncommitted didn't win that many raw votes either.

Still somewhat surprising given how MN tends to be very politically engaged and often has some of the best turnout all else being equal.

[Devils30]

When all is said and done, it looks like he'll end up with 70% which is by far his worst primary.

His underperformance mostly comes from metro MSP. Some of this can be explained by Somali protest voters in MSP. However, this is nowhere near enough to explain his larger underperformance. At face value, MN is otherwise a state that's a pretty good demographic fit for him - very white, decently college educated, older, highly politically engaged, ect. I would've thought large margins in MSP suburbs would easily cancel out any Somali and Arab protest votes simillar to what happened with the rest of Wayne County, MI outvoting heavily Arab Dearborn.

Also unlike MI there was no serious effort to have people vote "uncommitted"

What happened?

I feel like precinct results for some of the core MSP counties would really help answer this question so plz post if you find them.

Strong suspicion that the biggest difference here vs Michigan is that Michigan had national fixation on "test for Biden" etc and an actual visible campaign that ended up countermobilizing turnout among Biden supporters. See the relative sky high turnout in Michigan.

Minnesota was much more under the radar so ordinary Biden supporters just didn't show up. MN's Dem side turnout is dismal tonight. The Uncommitted people got their people out without the Biden voters realizing they needed to countermobilize.

Will be interesting to see Washington State next week, the last Dem primary in a left-coded state with Uncommitted a factor. (Kentucky might have a really strong Uncommitted performance but those...won't be left wing protest votes)

I kind of suspect Uncommitted will underperform in Washington for a similar reason it has in Colorado tonight, another state people might assume Uncommitted would do really well in: mailing ballots to every voter greatly increases turnout and will basically mobilize the normie side of the party that might not even really realize there's a primary afoot.

The moderate white college grads seemed to choose Republican ballots. Haley got 44-45% in Hennepin and Ramsey and 30s in Carver, Dakota. Had these people voted in the Dem primary, uncommitted is probably lower.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Phillips had a bit of a home state boost and I don't think the threat of an Uncommitted campaign was taken as seriously here as it was in the crucial battleground of Michigan.

At the same time, Uncommitted got over 10% in Tennessee without what appears to be a strong Muslim presence or dedicated campaign for it.

[The Mikado]

Phillips had a bit of a home state boost and I don't think the threat of an Uncommitted campaign was taken as seriously here as it was in the crucial battleground of Michigan.

At the same time, Uncommitted got over 10% in Tennessee without what appears to be a strong Muslim presence or dedicated campaign for it.

Did you mean North Carolina (Uncommitted at 13%)? Tennessee has Uncommitted at 8%.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

As noted, Biden did a bit of a GOTV campaign in Michigan. He didn't here. I received no mailers, nothing, no signs on anything on the ground. The Uncommitted people were running a bit of a campaign.

Also to put things into perspective, Haley received over double the number of votes Uncommitted did. In fact, Vivek+DeSantis+Christie all received over 15%. There was no massive swell of support for Uncommitted, just low turnout for a pretty much meaningless election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Phillips had a bit of a home state boost and I don't think the threat of an Uncommitted campaign was taken as seriously here as it was in the crucial battleground of Michigan.

At the same time, Uncommitted got over 10% in Tennessee without what appears to be a strong Muslim presence or dedicated campaign for it.

Did you mean North Carolina (Uncommitted at 13%)? Tennessee as Uncommitted at 8%.

Yes, my bad. It's interesting to me because that's just slightly less than how it did in Michigan, and I'm not sure why.

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

Phillips had a bit of a home state boost and I don't think the threat of an Uncommitted campaign was taken as seriously here as it was in the crucial battleground of Michigan.

At the same time, Uncommitted got over 10% in Tennessee without what appears to be a strong Muslim presence or dedicated campaign for it.

Did you mean North Carolina (Uncommitted at 13%)? Tennessee as Uncommitted at 8%.

Yes, my bad. It's interesting to me because that's just slightly less than how it did in Michigan, and I'm not sure why.

All three have a significant amount of black voters, but Colorado “non”committed got around 7% so that just might be the floor.

[The Mikado]

As noted, Biden did a bit of a GOTV campaign in Michigan. He didn't here. I received no mailers, nothing, no signs on anything on the ground. The Uncommitted people were running a bit of a campaign.

Also to put things into perspective, Haley received over double the number of votes Uncommitted did. In fact, Vivek+DeSantis+Christie all received over 15%. There was no massive swell of support for Uncommitted, just low turnout for a pretty much meaningless election.

Another way of thinking about it: Massachusetts' population is larger than Minnesota's but only by a little bit. Pretty similar.

In MN Uncommitted got about 45k votes and got 19% off of that.
In MA No Preference got about 50k votes and got 9% off of that.

Much lower Biden turnout in MN is the culprit, as BRTD points out, not Uncommitted's vote total being sky high.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

As noted, Biden did a bit of a GOTV campaign in Michigan. He didn't here. I received no mailers, nothing, no signs on anything on the ground. The Uncommitted people were running a bit of a campaign.

Also to put things into perspective, Haley received over double the number of votes Uncommitted did. In fact, Vivek+DeSantis+Christie all received over 15%. There was no massive swell of support for Uncommitted, just low turnout for a pretty much meaningless election.

Another way of thinking about it: Massachusetts' population is larger than Minnesota's but only by a little bit. Pretty similar.

In MN Uncommitted got about 45k votes and got 19% off of that.
In MA No Preference got about 50k votes and got 9% off of that.

Much lower Biden turnout in MN is the culprit, as BRTD points out, not Uncommitted's vote total being sky high.

Massachusetts is a semi-closed primary isn't it? Haley might've poached more than a few Democrats here, almost all who would've voted for Biden.

I gave the examples my brother who voted for Haley and had no interest in voting either Biden or Uncommitted and literally only voted so he could get 2 paid hours off work.

[henster]

I think NC's uncommitted vote comes down to residual conservadems mostly. Just look at Robeson County uncommitted got 37% of the vote and the county is not remotely a liberal bastion and has a negligible Arab population.

[Sir Mohamed]

I wonder how much that is related to Gaza? I really don't get why there are so many young people of non-Arab descent engaged in this and not over Ukraine or other conflicts?

[EastwoodS]

I wonder how much that is related to Gaza? I really don't get why there are so many young people of non-Arab descent engaged in this and not over Ukraine or other conflicts?

Because the really trendy thing of today is to fight "colonialism" and "White on brown oppression".
Most of the young people see Russia on Ukraine as "white on white crime." They see Israel on Palestine as "White oppressor on poor, brown apartheid victims" so go figure. It's not really hard to see the shallow thought and skewed priorities of the left, it is quite predictable. honestly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I guess one thing uncommitted people got right was keeping Omar at arm's length from their campaign, unlike in Michigan where a toxic Hamas supporter like Tlaib hijacked their effort and was very vocal about it.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I wonder how much that is related to Gaza? I really don't get why there are so many young people of non-Arab descent engaged in this and not over Ukraine or other conflicts?

Is it really that hard to understand? Almost every day for 5 months now, I get to open my phone and watch neighborhoods get flattened and kids getting blown to pieces. You don't have to be some internet-poisoned pro-Hamas leftist to be upset about this.

[GAinDC]

I wonder how much that is related to Gaza? I really don't get why there are so many young people of non-Arab descent engaged in this and not over Ukraine or other conflicts?

Is it really that hard to understand? Almost every day for 5 months now, I get to open my phone and watch neighborhoods get flattened and kids getting blown to pieces. You don't have to be some internet-poisoned pro-Hamas leftist to be upset about this.

I think everyone is horrified to see this. The better question is: “why do some people see this and decide that they’re ok risking another Trump Administration, which would be infinitely worse on this issue and so many others they claim to care about?”

[RGM2609]

He underperformed because a lot of morons voted in the MN primary. Period. There is absolutely no ing reason to do these stunts when the opponent is fascist and in the name of the propaganda of a terrorist group. (Also Phillips being from MN did give him a boost and take Biden down a bit).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

He underperformed because a lot of morons voted in the MN primary. Period. There is absolutely no ing reason to do these stunts when the opponent is fascist and in the name of the propaganda of a terrorist group. (Also Phillips being from MN did give him a boost and take Biden down a bit).

Biden underperformed because Minnesota Democratic voters are smart.

[RGM2609]

He underperformed because a lot of morons voted in the MN primary. Period. There is absolutely no ing reason to do these stunts when the opponent is fascist and in the name of the propaganda of a terrorist group. (Also Phillips being from MN did give him a boost and take Biden down a bit).

Biden underperformed because Minnesota Democratic voters are smart.

I have a hunch someone with a Libertarian avatar wouldn't like most of those people who voted uncommitted. But something something horseshoe theory.

[Crumpets]

Will be interesting to see Washington State next week, the last Dem primary in a left-coded state with Uncommitted a factor. (Kentucky might have a really strong Uncommitted performance but those...won't be left wing protest votes)

I kind of suspect Uncommitted will underperform in Washington for a similar reason it has in Colorado tonight, another state people might assume Uncommitted would do really well in: mailing ballots to every voter greatly increases turnout and will basically mobilize the normie side of the party that might not even really realize there's a primary afoot.

Super anecdotal, but my mom is a loyal Dem who is voting for Biden in November, no question. But she supports the "uncommitted" campaign, and is currently undecided between voting Biden, uncommitted, or for Haley in Washington State because "I don't want people to associate Washington with Trump."

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

He underperformed because a lot of morons voted in the MN primary. Period. There is absolutely no ing reason to do these stunts when the opponent is fascist and in the name of the propaganda of a terrorist group. (Also Phillips being from MN did give him a boost and take Biden down a bit).

Biden underperformed because Minnesota Democratic voters are smart.

I have a hunch someone with a Libertarian avatar wouldn't like most of those people who voted uncommitted. But something something horseshoe theory.

Anyone who votes against Biden is on my side until November.