Yeah Biden +7 is a legitimately shocking result. I thought Trump would do well in Miami-Dade but I thought that meant Biden +15 not 7. Florida might actually be a lean R default state now.
1. Miami-Dade 2020 was partly a COVID-19 fluke, but riverwalk3 is also correct on the FLGOP squandering their 2018-2022 gains (which might not have been 100% sustainable to begin with).
Re: Will Trump get 20% or over of the Black vote?
Can't see him winning decisively enough for that big of a R swing among Black voters. I can still see him losing with 15%, but a collapse in overall turnout or R surge beyond that probably means he's favored.
2. 2024-PRES #Blexit was real, but given points 3 and 4 it's unclear if this manifested as an actual surge in R turnout among Black voters, despite continued post-Obama drop off in raw D turnout.
GA is a good example of what will win out, polls or trends? If Biden ends up beating his polling, I can see GA being ground zero for this.
3. Trends won out over polls in the Peach State
-Houston metro swings simillarly to Dallas/Austin/San Antonio metros.
4. Trump probably still won TX but Cruz may not have won reelection. Metro Houston almost certainly trended D relative to the state as a whole. Biden gets >55% in both Williamson and Hays Counties, holds Tarrant County, and probably flips Collin County.
Trump is leading in WI and MI, Biden is leading in NV, and AZ. Biden narrowly wins reelection despite big swings against him (raw margin wise) in Metro NYC, Los Angeles County, Chicagoland, and the Bay Area.
