Pew Research: polls showing inexplicable right-shift amongst young people are bogus

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

It was pretty obvious from the start, but a big win for the “Biden hacks”, nonetheless.

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1765109659403276773?s=46

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1765110861591413103?s=46

[wbrocks67]

There's been a lot of under discussion about opt-in panels vs. probability-based. I believe that young voter poll that had the whack crosstabs from Axios and had the weighting issues was opt-in too.

[Redban]

OP is getting excited. Pew isn’t saying that “all polls that show a big rightward shift among young people are wrong” (which the thread title implies). Pew is saying that online opt-in polls are likely to be wrong because people will give thoughtless or untrue answers in order to get paid: that would merely mean that a few pollsters like Activote and Premise may be suspect. The main pollsters (Siena, Fox, CNN, Morning Consult etc) have nothing to do with the alleged error that Pew has discovered

[Progressive Pessimist]

The problem with young voters is getting them to turn out for Biden at all versus staying at home or voting third party.

Them considering Trump is a joke, and always has been.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

OP is getting excited. Pew isn’t saying that “all polls that show a big rightward shift among young people are wrong” (which the thread title implies). Pew is saying that online opt-in polls are likely to be wrong because people will give thoughtless or untrue answers in order to get paid: that would merely mean that a few pollsters like Activote and Premise may be suspect. The main pollsters (Siena, Fox, CNN, Morning Consult etc) have nothing to do with the alleged error that Pew has discovered

So, you honestly, sincerely think that Gen Z has shifted 30+ points to the right since the midterms? And towards a man who stands in diametric opposition to everything they value?

[Randy Marsh]

OP is getting excited. Pew isn’t saying that “all polls that show a big rightward shift among young people are wrong” (which the thread title implies). Pew is saying that online opt-in polls are likely to be wrong because people will give thoughtless or untrue answers in order to get paid: that would merely mean that a few pollsters like Activote and Premise may be suspect. The main pollsters (Siena, Fox, CNN, Morning Consult etc) have nothing to do with the alleged error that Pew has discovered

So, you honestly, sincerely think that Gen Z has shifted 30+ points to the right since the midterms? And towards a man who stands in diametric opposition to everything they value?

Young people generally think poorly of dinosaurs in office

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

OP is getting excited. Pew isn’t saying that “all polls that show a big rightward shift among young people are wrong” (which the thread title implies). Pew is saying that online opt-in polls are likely to be wrong because people will give thoughtless or untrue answers in order to get paid: that would merely mean that a few pollsters like Activote and Premise may be suspect. The main pollsters (Siena, Fox, CNN, Morning Consult etc) have nothing to do with the alleged error that Pew has discovered

So, you honestly, sincerely think that Gen Z has shifted 30+ points to the right since the midterms? And towards a man who stands in diametric opposition to everything they value?

Young people generally think poorly of dinosaurs in office

That’s anecdotal and still doesn’t explain it.

I’ve not heard a single blue av on this website give a good argument for such a shift.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The problem with young voters is getting them to turn out for Biden at all versus staying at home or voting third party.

Them considering Trump is a joke, and always has been.

This 100%.

It applies to other groups beyond young voters. I don't buy Trump winning 30% of the black vote or a majority of the Hispanic vote, but I can buy Biden struggling with turnout in both groups.

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

The problem with young voters is getting them to turn out for Biden at all versus staying at home or voting third party.

Them considering Trump is a joke, and always has been.

It’s worth noting that it has been nine years since Trump’s first candidacy. There are millions of Americans who have only known politics with Trump in it. What “young people” are has changed a lot since 2015.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The problem with young voters is getting them to turn out for Biden at all versus staying at home or voting third party.

Them considering Trump is a joke, and always has been.

It’s worth noting that it has been nine years since Trump’s first candidacy. There are millions of Americans who have only known politics with Trump in it. What “young people” are has changed a lot since 2015.

Speaking as someone who is currently 18, my age cohort has no sense of a pre-Trump Republican Party. The idea of Mitt Romney style Republicanism just doesn't exist to most of us.

At the same time, because we don't have that pre-Trump reference, I think Trump seems a bit more "normal" to some in my age cohort than he does to older people - they care less about his aggressive rhetoric and violations of norms because to us, those just are the norms.

For these reasons, I think many on the left in my age cohort struggle to recognize just how much of a unprecedented threat Trump is to our institutions, which is why the "democracy" campaign messaging isn't as effective for us.

Most I know also believe President Biden holds a lot more power than he actually does and are frustrated that he hasn't been able to deliver on his key promises because they think it's just him being lazy. I really believe everyone needs to take a civics/government course so they can better understand the nuances of our system.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

I mean, yeah, the turnout is the real problem. I agree with that. I just find it comical that many people on here (blue, green AND red avs) are taking the cross tabs at face value and sincerely believe that the biggest realignment since the the civil rights act is occurring, despite the lack of any real evidence. Elections, fundraising, political messaging, etc. are all completely out of line with what the polls are showing. I’ve not heard any good arguments so far and it’s baffling that so many people on this website continue to believe them regardless.

I don’t doubt that Biden is currently losing, but if you seriously think young people have shifted to the right 30+ points since the midterms, and in favor of a man who stands in diametric opposition to everything our generation values and stands for, then I don’t know what to tell you. It’s total nonsense and pure stupidity, and it’s wishful thinking by those who oppose Biden and the Dems.

[TML]

I mean, yeah, the turnout is the real problem. I agree with that. I just find it comical that many people on here (blue, green AND red avs) are taking the cross tabs at face value and sincerely believe that the biggest realignment since the the civil rights act is occurring, despite the lack of any real evidence. Elections, fundraising, political messaging, etc. are all completely out of line with what the polls are showing. I’ve not heard any good arguments so far and it’s baffling that so many people on this website continue to believe them regardless.

I don’t doubt that Biden is currently losing, but if you seriously think young people have shifted to the right 30+ points since the midterms, then I don’t know what to tell you. It’s total nonsense and pure stupidity.

For similar reasons, I also don't buy the narrative being promoted by some people that the voters under 30 in 2008 have shifted significantly rightward by 2020. Even though exit polls on the surface seem to suggest that about 20% of 2008 Obama voters under 30 appear to have voted for Trump in 2020, I'd argue that this "shift" is more the result of many young Obama voters from 2008 sitting out subsequent elections because (1) they felt Obama did not meet their expectations once he got into office (and with good reason, since he clearly could have done more than what he actually did, especially in his first two years) and (2) subsequent Democratic presidential nominees haven't been nearly as inspiring as Obama was in 2008.

[BlueSwan]

My own anecdotal evidence as a high school teacher suggests that there is internationally a pretty hard right wing swing amongst young men - many still below voting age - and that this swing is driven primarily by the hysterical gender debates.

[Mercenary]

How in the world could there possibly be a rightward shift when the left controls both the entertainment industry and tbe education industry? Influence matters and the left knew how to play the long term game better. Bet on future generations and control the organizations that influence them. Each generation sets a new standard and them you can shift the standard of influence more for the mext generation. The area of focus tends to be more on social issues than others, which is quite apparent when you look at any form of media or so called education and then look at the beliefs of each generation. Alpha will be even more "socially liberal" than Z, if thay is possible. If you wanted to prevent that, conservatives would need to somehow gain control over the entertainment and education industries, good luck with that. Peoples thoughts and beliefs are just a combination of the influences throughout their life. Of course any poll that contradicts this id going to be based in bogus answers. That has as much likelihood of accuracy as a poll showing Gen Z looking forward to working in an office from 8-5 every day for the next 40 years and enjoy the hour long commutes as it gives them a chance to listen to pod casts or some other nonsense.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My own anecdotal evidence as a high school teacher suggests that there is internationally a pretty hard right wing swing amongst young men - many still below voting age - and that this swing is driven primarily by the hysterical gender debates.

This. Some on social media have been very good at equating right-wing/conservative politics to ones sense of masculinity. In order to be a "real" or "alpha" male, you need to be Conservative. Def seen this with a few folks I knew in HS - they made being Conservative/Trump supporter part of their social identity but had no clue what Trump/Rs actually supported when it came to policy.

I haven't really seen liberal/Dems make much of an effort to reach out to younger men and combat these narratives.

The good news for Dems though is young men tend to be a very low turnout demographic, even compared to young women.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Not to belabor the point, but I’m asking for solid empirical evidence for why I should believe the cross-tabs. So far, I’m still only getting information that can be considered anecdotal and theoretical at best, with nothing based on hard evidence and data

And again, I’m not doubting the top lines showing Biden losing, but everything so far, including elections, fundraising numbers, Biden’s strength in a lot of minority precincts so far, and political messaging by both parties are completely and undeniably incongruous with the shifts being shown in the cross tabs. You are all very intelligent people, but it’s so weird to see so many of you treating these polls with very little skepticism.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Just like the so called shift of minorities to the GOP, I'll believe young people are shifting to the GOP when actual results show that.