Besides the polls what other indicators point to Trump winning?

[Tekken_Guy]

Besides the polls, what other indicators point to Trump winning in 2024?

[Respect and Compassion]

-Biden got much lower raw vote totals in the 2024 Nevada Presidential primary than CCM did in the 2022 Nevada Senate primary

-His raw vote total in Michigan was underwhelming compared to Trump's 2020 raw vote total and the 2016 turnout in the Michigan Democratic primary. The "not-Biden" vote got ~14 times the amount the not-Obama vote did in the 2012 primary

-Tens of millions of lower income Americans are experiencing more financial hardship now than they did under Trump. They also feel threatened by increased immigration.

-When turnout is higher, the R candidate overperforms. Take a look at how R's did in NE-01 General in 2022 compared to NE-01 special. Take a look at how R's did in NY in November in the same area that comprised the NY-19 special. Turnout will definitely be higher for the general in 2024 than it was in 2022, and much higher compared to special elections

-Figures like John Cornyn are ok with openly endorsing Trump, indicating that the Republican establishment is ok with funding Trump who they seem to view as the "lesser of two evils" compared to Biden

-Eric Adams, Katie Hobbs, other Democrats are signaling their disapproval of Biden on the border. Fetterman and Casey apparently counter-signaled Biden on energy. Fetterman commented that he feels Trump is still strong enough to take PA.

-Trump is taking stances that make him appear more moderate on abortion and similar issues compared to 2022 R's

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Foreign conflicts, the economy getting worse, Biden aging, migrant crisis, etc.

[Progressive Pessimist]

-Biden's age/dissatisfaction with him/media narratives.
-Third parties.
-False equivalence/short-term memories of Americans.

Those kind of things gave Trump a win in 2016, and could again. Nothing about them are affirmative for Trump. However, Biden does have his own advantages that counter some of these more than Clinton could. It's all going to come down to how good of a campaign he has behind him.

[cg41386]

Turnout will definitely be higher for the general in 2024 than it was in 2022, and much higher compared to special elections

Surprise! But that doesn’t mean Rs are going to automatically overperform.