What Democratic Senate candidates will outperform Biden by 4+ points in November? March edition

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Now that we know AZ won't be a three way race I think this poll is appropriate.

There has been a lot of talk of crossover voting for the Senate this year so I wanted to see where everyone's head is at.

I did not include Tester and Brown as most people think they will do more than 4 points better. Similarly did not include Maryland as most people think the nominee will underperform Biden.

[Spectator]

Baldwin, Casey, Gallego, and Allred were my guesses, but I think Alllred will be on the cusp of about 4 points.

Rosen and Slotkin no, but I think they’ll do 1-3 points better than Biden which might be enough for them to win.

[seskoog]

Baldwin and Casey do for sure, and maybe Gallego as well. Slotkin, Rosen, and Allred run within one point of Biden in either direction.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Why would Gallego outrun Biden by five points? Lol. Kelly won 51 percent of the vote in 2022 when Hobbs took 50, and I assume we would get a similar result this time around. I do think he will outperform Biden, however, largely due to stronger Mexican support.

Baldwin is iffy but may do it; otherwise no to all the others.

[Spectator]

Why would Gallego outrun Biden by five points? Lol. Kelly won 51 percent of the vote in 2022 when Hobbs took 50, and I assume we would get a similar result this time around. I do think he will outperform Biden, however.

Kari Lake went the Stacey Abrams route pretending she is Governor and Gallego is a hispanic Marine. Not that hard to see why this race will be a lot tougher for Lake than the gubernatorial race. It’s easy to imagine Trump/Gallego voters. Biden/Lake probably non-existent.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

My personal thoughts

Casey clearly will, maybe by a good margin over 4. The polls show a consistent large crossover number. That may shrink as the election goes forward but won't come close to going below 4.


Baldwin- Tough for me I think she ends up in the 4-5 range- which probably puts her seat off the map regardless of Biden potentially losing her state.

AZ- the state I expect the most disagreement on. I just don't see who Trump-Gallego voters are. If Lake is to out there for you, Trump is as well.

I do not think Michigan or Nevada will have a 4+ point difference.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I think just Casey on that list, but Klobauchar should also.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Why would Gallego outrun Biden by five points? Lol. Kelly won 51 percent of the vote in 2022 when Hobbs took 50, and I assume we would get a similar result this time around. I do think he will outperform Biden, however.

Kari Lake went the Stacey Abrams route pretending she is Governor and Gallego is a hispanic Marine. Not that hard to see why this race will be a lot tougher for Lake than the gubernatorial race. It’s easy to imagine Trump/Gallego voters. Biden/Lake probably non-existent.

But five percent? Tragic GOP candidates like McSally and Finchem did not lead to such an outperformance for Ds vs other major statewide candidates. The vote was similar for Biden/Kelly in 2020 and Kelly/Hobbs/Fontes/Mayes/Hoffman in 2022, and I fail to see how Gallego will capture such a large pie of Trump voters when all the other Ds ran within a couple points of each other (50-52%), re: vote share.

Barring something very strange, I fail to see Gallego getting 51% of the vote while Biden musters just 46%.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Thought this would be a good thread to revisit

People were most sure about Casey over performing.....

In the end the only swing state senate candidate to  outperform Harris by 4 was Gallego.

[Accordion Hazard]

In the end the only swing state senate candidate to  outperform Harris by 4 was Gallego.

So did Rosen and Allred, albeit not as much:

AZ=Trump+5.5 vs Gallego+2.4 (7.9)
TX=Trump+13.9 vs Cruz+8.6 (5.3)
NV=Trump+3.1 vs Rosen+1.7 (4.