What early election results will tell us whether Biden or Trump wins?

[Tekken_Guy]

What early indicators on election night will tell us whether Biden or Trump are on track to win?

[mjba257]

Fayette County, KY, home of Lexington, my hometown. It's usually one of the first counties to report results on election night. Lexington is a mid-sized city, with a large university and multiple suburbs. Biden should win this county, but the margins make all the difference in the world. If Trump is able to get above 40%, that could be signs of a Biden underperformance in suburban areas across the country, which would be very bad for him.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There will be 3 keys i will be looking at :

- How do the early Loudon numbers look like . This will tell us how Biden is performing in the suburbs

- The early numbers around atlanta metro as they will tell us how high African American turnout is

- Whether or not Miami Dade Flips . If it does then it tells that Trump is performing pretty well with Hispanics that he will definitely need for the sunbelt .

[Mopsus]

If Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia, or Florida are too close to call, we’re likely looking at a landslide for one candidate or the other.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Not an election result but

November 4, 2024. An NYT journalist tweets “remember, even if Biden ends up winning, this isn’t indicative to his strength as a candidate. He is still deeply deeply unpopular and the only reason people are choosing him is to spite Trump.”

[Lief 🗽]

The California jungle primary results tonight will give us a good sense of who will win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The Boone/Campbell/Kenton trio and Hamilton county Indiana. If Biden gets to single digits in the former, or outright wins Hamilton it's not good news for Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

The California jungle primary results tonight will give us a good sense of who will win.

Turnout is skewed towards the GOP because they have a semi-competitive primary whereas Dems don’t.

I meant on November 5th.

[Respect and Compassion]

<I'm using Eastern time for this post>

(Indiana and Kentucky, which both open *before* 7pm)

While Hamilton County, Indiana will not be at close to 100% of precincts reporting before 7pm, it's quite likely they'll have enough of the vote in between 8pm and 9pm. If it's looking like Hamilton swings even a tiny bit R, then I'd be on the verge of declaring the race over. If it swings only a bit D, then that would signal trouble for Biden

I'd also look at the raw vote totals in the various Indiana and Kentucky counties - if they indicate high 2020esque turnout, then that would be a bad sign for Biden because noncollege white turnout being that high indicates the battlegrounds will flip as long as Biden also loses support among nonwhite voters and white college voters. If I see the more college educated parts of Indiana and Kentucky show a swing towards Trump (caveat: much of Indiana and Kentucky won't fully report before 7pm even if they show partial results before 7pm; full results may be in around 9 to 9:30ish)

(Florida and Georgia)

If Trump is close to winning Duval when the early vote drops, that would be a sign he's very likely to win Georgia. If he does end up winning Duval, I'm confident he wins Georgia. If he wins Duval County by several points, I'm leaning towards him being >90% likely to win the electoral college.

I'd also like to see precinct results in Georgia so I could ascertain the swings. If Trump is swinging typically D trending areas at an extent that is just slightly R, I'd lean towards him being >90% likely to win the electoral college.

(if you define 'early' to be before 10:30pm eastern, which for West Coasters would be 7:30pm eastern which is definitely early in the night from their perspective)

-North Carolina and Ohio will be close to their final margins around 10pm, which means that if Trump is leading by high single digits in NC and by the mid-teens in Ohio, I'm leaning towards Trump being >90% to win the electoral college

-Georgia might not really be truly close to fully in, but enough precincts and counties may indicate that Trump's performance is closer to Kemp2022 than to Walker2022

-Before 10:30pm, there should be multiple precincts and counties across the country which contain higher proportions of college educated voters, that are close to fully in. If I witness Trump swinging a decent amount of them, or for them to only be swinging very slightly D, I'd lean towards a >90% chance that Trump wins

-The metro area performances in Texas can be a reasonable portent for Arizona. And at 10pm the early vote in AZ will show up, and it may indicate a swing of several points towards Trump when compared to the early vote in 2020 and 2022.

(Between 11pm eastern and 12am eastern)

-It's quite possible that both Georgia and Wisconsin will be called for Trump in this time interval. North Carolina will indicate a high single digit win, Florida indicating a double digit win, Ohio indicating a win in the mid-teens, Indiana and Kentucky swinging to Trump substantially, Texas being double digits for Trump. Et cetera, et cetera. The election would then come down to Biden having to hold onto all 3 of MAP (MI,AZ,PA). But the swings in various areas across the country would indicate he'd lose at least one of them