Where will Haley win a county?

[Woke Frenzy]

[Mr. Smith]

Alaska: North Slope?
California: San Francisco
Texas: Probably a rando-county out west
Virginia: one or two of Lexington IC, Charlottesville IC, Montgomery, Falls Church, Manassas
Maine: Somewhere in ME-01
Utah: Summit, Salt Lake?
Massachusetts: Probably a Western county
Vermont: Almost half of them.

Nada in the rest of The South.

[Iowa+3]

Alabama - Greene, Macon.
Massachusetts - Suffolk
North Carolina - Durham
California - San Francisco, Marin, Alameda, Santa Cruz, San Mateo (H+2)
Colorado - Denver, Boulder (H+0)
Vermont - Chittenden
Virginia - Arlington, Alexandria City, Charlottesville City, Falls Church City, Petersburg City, Richmond City.

Really, really tough calls:  Orange (Trump +5), Summit, (Trump +2)

The math says Haley wins Boulder, but it's something like 0.6 ridiculous like this. So that's 15 counties.

[Iowa+3]

Utah, he's not losing any here.

Cumberland county ME, he's up by at least 8 here, and that's his worst Maine County.

Minnesota, Hennepin is Trump +5, Ramsay is Trump +4. Both are reasonable calls against, but the math favors Trump.

Tennessee, Davidson + Shelby, Trump will be over 60 there.

Arkansas, Pulaski is 2:1 Trump.

Travis is Trump +10.

[Woke Frenzy]

Alaska: North Slope?

Isn't Barrow, or whatever that town is called nowadays, said to be a blue-collar hotspot?
I could rather imagine her winning Juneau or another town in the panhandle.

[kwabbit]

California- San Francisco, Marin, possibly Humboldt, Mendocino, Sonoma, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Santa Barbara. Open primary and Dem turnout will be slightly higher bc of the Senate contest.

Utah- None, possibly SLC, Utah, and Summit. Closed primary so no Dem crossover although the Mormon factor could boost Haley.

Colorado- Boulder, possibly Denver. Probably a few ski counties too but don't them well enough.

Oklahoma- None.

Texas- Travis, maybe Williamson. I think Collin is too diverse for Haley to win.

Arkansas- None, but Pulaski and Benton won't be blowouts.

Minnesota- Hennepin and Ramsey are tossups, perhaps Olmstead and the suburban counties but that's less likely.

Alabama- None, but Shelby, Madison, Jefferson, Montgomery won't be blowouts.

Tennessee- Perhaps Williamson and Davidson. Williamson is a good candidate but simply not that many Dems to crossover for Haley.

NC- Orange, perhaps Durham, will be somewhat close in Wake, Buncombe, Mecklenburg, Boone.

VA- Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church, Fairfax City, Charlottesville, Albemarle, Williamsburg all seem like good bets to me. Loudoun, Henrico, York, PWC, Manassas, Montgomery, Fredericksburg are also possible.

MA- Suffolk, Middlesex. Nantucket and Dukes are also possible. Wouldn't be surprised to see the state as a whole closer than expected given that independents can vote and most of the independents are Dems.

VT- Chittenden, maybe the hippie South VT provinces. Only Rutland and the NE will be Trump landslides.

ME- Perhaps Cumberland but probably only there.

[RI]

Alaska: North Slope?

Isn't Barrow, or whatever that town is called nowadays, said to be a blue-collar hotspot?
I could rather imagine her winning Juneau or another town in the panhandle.

Rubio + Kasich was highest in Juneau and downtown Anchorage, so I'd say Juneau is the most likely Haley borough.

[Del Tachi]

Only Virginia.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Colorado, Maine, Utah, Virginia, Vermont

She'll win quite a few towns in Massachusetts but not concentrated in any county enough to win one. 

Not sure about California. Green Papers says it's a closed primary but I guess that's incorrect?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Colorado, Maine, Utah, Virginia, Vermont

She'll win quite a few towns in Massachusetts but not concentrated in any county enough to win one.  

Not sure about California. Green Papers says it's a closed primary but I guess that's incorrect?

California IS a closed primary for Trump vs Haley. It's open for the jungle downballot stuff I think.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Haley has lost Nantucket, probably her best shot at a county in MA.

[Roll Roons]

Haley has lost Nantucket, probably her best shot at a county in MA.

Suffolk? Apparently there's nothing from Boston yet.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Haley has lost Nantucket, probably her best shot at a county in MA.

Suffolk? Apparently there's nothing from Boston yet.

I don't think it's guaranteed that she wins Boston.

[Iowa+3]

Everyone who chose North Carolina, lost.

And Trump swept Alabama and Tennessee. So far the only counties in the south that Trump has lost are in South Carolina.

Texas was swept, as Travis county is too far down to be counted.

CA is looking like it will be a blowout for Trump. Aside from Stanislaus(!) he's up in every county, and even up by 11 in Marin county.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So far its just Vermont, Colorado, and Virginia.

It looks like Trump will sweep in California and Texas. The only remaining states are Massachusetts, Utah, and Alaska. But Alaska reports by state house district, so we might not know Bourough results at all.

Haley has lost Nantucket, probably her best shot at a county in MA.

Suffolk? Apparently there's nothing from Boston yet.

I don't think it's guaranteed that she wins Boston.

Trump has won Boston by around 7%.

[Iowa+3]

Interesting. So Haley's vote wasn't concentrated enough in MA to win a county? Ouch.

So just VT, CO and VA where she outperformed expectations in all three. But didn't win anything else anywhere else (except for Stanislaus).

She'll actually end up outperforming the total counts (about 20), but be relevant in fewer states (just 3).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Interesting. So Haley's vote wasn't concentrated enough in MA to win a county? Ouch.

So just VT, CO and VA where she outperformed expectations in all three. But didn't win anything else anywhere else (except for Stanislaus).

She'll actually end up outperforming the total counts (about 20), but be relevant in fewer states (just 3).

She didn't outperform expectations in Virginia, most people expected her to do better than this.

[Woke Frenzy]

And Trump swept Alabama and Tennessee. So far the only counties in the south that Trump has lost are in South Carolina.

Since when does Virginia not lie in the South anymore?

[politicallefty]

I voted for everything except Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. I'm most surprised I got California wrong.

From what I can tell, it looks like Alaska, Massachusetts, and Utah are still outstanding. (Tbh, I forgot AK was a caucus.) I know Utah's a caucus, but Summit or Salt Lake have the potential for surprises.

[LostFellow]

Haley has lost Nantucket, probably her best shot at a county in MA.

Suffolk? Apparently there's nothing from Boston yet.

I don't think it's guaranteed that she wins Boston.

Also worth noting Suffolk county contains Chelsea, Revere, and Winthrop as well, which turned out to have extremely Trumpy R electorates. Trump cleared 70 in all three of these and got 82% in Revere, one of his best towns in the state. I guess that's where at least some of those notoriously racist Boston sports fans hail from...

It turns out that Dukes County/Martha's Vineyard was Haley's best shot, losing by 6 points, and the wealthy metro-west suburbs allowed her to lose Middlesex county by 8. Massachusetts R coalitions are quite interesting, revealing how even though the North and South shores might be heavily D and only vote 10-20 points to the right of metro-west in the GE, they are averaging about 40-50 points more favorable to Trump in the R primary. Back in 2016, Trump's "secular brash persona" made sense in his appeal, but I'm surprised how much some of the Boston area townies still like him.

For example, obviously the D-primary has little turnout incentive, but Trump won almost 200 more raw votes today than Biden in Revere, which was D+30 (!!) in 2020. In comparison, Biden easily cleared Trump's raw vote (4200 to 3200) in New Bedford in SE Mass which was Trump at 79 in the primary and "only" D+24 in 2020, and where in general dems have trended poorly recently. Guess it's the case that some of these north and south shore residents would climb over nails to vote for Trump at any time.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Haley has lost Nantucket, probably her best shot at a county in MA.

Suffolk? Apparently there's nothing from Boston yet.

I don't think it's guaranteed that she wins Boston.

Also worth noting Suffolk county contains Chelsea, Revere, and Winthrop as well, which turned out to have extremely Trumpy R electorates. Trump cleared 70 in all three of these and got 82% in Revere, one of his best towns in the state. I guess that's where at least some of those notoriously racist Boston sports fans hail from...

It turns out that Dukes County/Martha's Vineyard was Haley's best shot, losing by 6 points, and the wealthy metro-west suburbs allowed her to lose Middlesex county by 8. Massachusetts R coalitions are quite interesting, revealing how even though the North and South shores might be heavily D and only vote 10-20 points to the right of metro-west in the GE, they are averaging about 40-50 points more favorable to Trump in the R primary. Back in 2016, Trump's "secular brash persona" made sense in his appeal, but I'm surprised how much some of the Boston area townies still like him.

For example, obviously the D-primary has little turnout incentive, but Trump won almost 200 more raw votes today than Biden in Revere, which was D+30 (!!) in 2020. Biden easily cleared Trump's raw vote (4200 to 3200) in New Bedford in SE Mass which was Trump at 79 in the primary and "only" D+24 in 2020, and where in general dems have trended poorly recently. Guess it's the case that some of these north and south shore residents would climb over nails to vote for Trump at any time.

I guess this proves that (at least to some groups) he retains the appeal of that secular brash persona.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Interesting. So Haley's vote wasn't concentrated enough in MA to win a county? Ouch.

So just VT, CO and VA where she outperformed expectations in all three. But didn't win anything else anywhere else (except for Stanislaus).

She'll actually end up outperforming the total counts (about 20), but be relevant in fewer states (just 3).

Yeah, the really wealthy Boston suburbs that came out for Haley in droves are split across three counties and not concentrated enough for a win in any of them.

Haley is at 40% in Utah, no county results reported but maybe she won something there?

[Gass3268]

Given the margin, maybe she' win one in Utah?

[Iowa+3]

She didn't outperform expectations in Virginia, most people expected her to do better than this.

She was running about 28 points behind Biden going in. Converting that to VA, means she beat expectations in doing better in VA than she had been doing previously.

Expectations should be based in concrete measurables. It's too easy to go back afterwards and say that people did better or worse if the standard isn't declared beforehand.

[RI]

Given the margin, maybe she' win one in Utah?

Leading in two at the moment.