Who wins Vermont?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

--skip--

[Drop Billionaires, Not Bombs]

Trump won it in 2016 with a more divided field and he'll win it again now that the GOP is the Trump Party for all intents and purposes. Phil Scott ain't that powerful.

[Coconut Decider]

If I had to guess I would say Trump, but it absolutely would not surprise me if Haley wins, as she has a lot of factors working for her that she didn't have in NH (which she only lost by 10):
- Fully Open Primary
- Much more Democratic State
- Democratic Primary is even more uncompetitive than in NH

Now, she doesn't have the months of campaigning that helped her in NH, but I still think that she will do quite well.

[JMT]

I think Trump probably still wins, but it’ll be close, if this poll is accurate:

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1764729595096445230?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[Mr. Smith]

After that DC win, I'll go with Haley.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

After that DC win, I'll go with Haley.

[Averroës]

Probably Trump, but it should be close enough for the town map to be interesting.

For what it's worth, I have seen more Haley signs than Trump signs over the past couple of weeks.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump won it in 2016 with a more divided field and he'll win it again now that the GOP is the Trump Party for all intents and purposes. Phil Scott ain't that powerful.

1) Anti-Trump moderates were split amont Kasich/Rubio.
2) Dem primary is uncontested this time for all intents and purposes encouraging cross over voting. In 2016 Clinton-Sanders was still the main event in the state.

[2016]

After that DC win, I'll go with Haley.

She definitly has a chance here. The Question is can she captalize on it.

[TDAS04]

Biden.

If you're asking about the Republican Primary, then Trump.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Screw it…

After that DC win, I'll go with Haley.

[mjba257]

Does Vermont have a lot of inbreds? If so, then Trump has a good shot. Otherwise, Haley probably gets it.

[Mexican Wolf]

I think Trump probably still wins, but it’ll be close, if this poll is accurate:

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1764729595096445230?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

Wow, I didn't think there'd be that large a polling difference between Vermont and Massachusetts.

Anyway, I'm going to be bold and guess Haley wins it narrowly.

[Sorenroy]

I think Trump probably still wins, but it’ll be close, if this poll is accurate:

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1764729595096445230?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

I have seen no reference to this polling outside of random Twitter posts. Mainstream Research is a Canadian polling company with no record of polling in the states before and, even if real, this poll does not appear on their website and has not been posted alongside any form of crosstabs.

[It's Time.]

Haley has a shot for sure.

[walleye26]

I’m going with Trump, but less than 50%. I’ll go Trump 49, Haley 45, others 6.

[Respect and Compassion]

This is the Super Tuesday race for which I'm most uncertain.

(Case for Haley)

-Unlike New Hampshire, there is proportionally much more left-leaning indies. Nearly two times as many voted in Vermont in the race between favorite son Sanders and Hillary, as they did in the R primary. In 2020, the total turnout in the Democratic primary was four times that of the Republican primary.

-Trump only got 32% in Vermont compared to his 35% in New Hampshire, and that 32% was after he already got additional momentum from South Carolina and Nevada.

-The combined Kasich+Rubio vote in 2016 in Vermont was around 48%, while the combined Kasich+Rubio+Jeb+Fiorina in New Hampshire was ~41.32%, and when you add Christie it becomes ~48.7%. It's demonstrably the case that Vermont had a greater share of combined establishment aligned candidate support than New Hampshire did.

-There was a FAU/Mainstreet Research poll that had Trump ahead of Haley by only 2 points (something like 43.7 to 41.7%). Caveat:the amount of Vermont voters in that poll was only 62 voters, because the pollster was trying to get a representation of all Super Tuesday states combined rather than an accurate representation of Vermont by itself.

-Phil Scott has endorsed Haley. Chris Sununu's endorsement and enthusiastic campaigning for Haley clearly boosted her in NH.

(Case For Trump)

-A UNH poll (from the pollster that had the most Haley favorable margins and whose last NH poll correctly pegged the margin as +11) had Trump ahead of Haley in Vermont by 30. Caveat: that was weeks ago and they had only 24% of the Vermont electorate as independent, which may end up being *wayyyyyyy off*

-If Trump improves upon his 32% in the Vermont 2016 primary as he did with his 13% in the DC 2016 primary (around 19 points), then he'd get 51% in Vermont tonight. Same with his delta between NH 2016 primary and the NH 2024 primary.

-Haley, from what I can tell, hasn't put as much effort into Vermont as she did in New Hampshire

-Trump has more momentum for tonight's races than he did for New Hampshire. This means that the same kind of soft "I'm willing to vote for Trump but I prefer someone else" voter is more likely to just vote for the obvious eventual nominee than they were in New Hampshire.


My prediction: Either Trump wins by less than 5 or Haley wins by less than 5. If Trump somehow wins by more than 5, it's because there were fewer left leaning indies jumping in for interference. If Haley wins by more than 5, it's because there were more left leaning indies jumping in.

The amount of left-leaning registered indies jumping in is something you can't really accurately predict, which is why this race is much more unclear than the others. I'm fairly confident that Trump wins Massachusetts because he got around 49% there in the 2016 primary, so even if he doesn't improve his percentage by nearly as much as he did in NH and DC, he'd still easily take MA. If left-leaning indies somehow make Haley take MA, then she'd be winning Vermont by a ton.

I'm skeptical of Virginia being all that close, I think Trump does better in Virginia than in Massachusetts though I honestly haven't studied the 2016 Virginia primary results all that much.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

I'm skeptical of Virginia being all that close, I think Trump does better in Virginia than in Massachusetts though I honestly haven't studied the 2016 Virginia primary results all that much.

I think that post as a whole is a good take. Still leaning Haley in Vermont, but it will be close either way.

Getting to the bit I left quoted, I’d agree as well. Haley will probably do well enough to win some cities and counties in VA (as well as some CDs, resulting in some delegates).

[Averroës]

Not many votes in so far, but there's a diverse set of towns represented. It's hard to say who is favored. If you compare the towns that are in so far to their 2016 benchmarks, it's Trump, but if you look at where turnout is stronger relative to 2016, it might be Haley.