If Trump wins, will the 2028 election be free and fair?

[GAinDC]

I don’t really understand your fixation on this, Tekken Guy.

You say you don’t support Trump, yet are absolutely prepared to die on this hill claiming that Trump won’t push us further toward authoritarianism, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary.

If you don’t want him to be President again, why are you trying so hard to convince everyone that another Trump term won’t be as bad as many of us think? Why give him any benefit of the doubt after everything that happened after 2020?

It’s not logically inconsistent to think that Trump will try to stay in office/try to take over elections nationally while still thinking that there’s no way he can realistically do that without like supermajorities in Congress.

But why even give him the benefit of the doubt? So much of the discourse around Trump for years has been "oh, he can't actually do what he says he's going to do."

The real issue is that he says he's going to do it in the first place!

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t really understand your fixation on this, Tekken Guy.

You say you don’t support Trump, yet are absolutely prepared to die on this hill claiming that Trump won’t push us further toward authoritarianism, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary.

If you don’t want him to be President again, why are you trying so hard to convince everyone that another Trump term won’t be as bad as many of us think? Why give him any benefit of the doubt after everything that happened after 2020?

I don’t support Trump and don’t want him to be president again. He will certainly make some moves towards strongman ultranationalism, namely on foreign policy and immigration issues. Foreign policy in particular seems to be my biggest concern over a second Trump administration.

But I also understand the limits to how much power he has exert outside the executive branch. Congress, the courts, state governments have all shown forms of independence from Trump.

I don’t think he’s another Putin or even an Erdogan. I see him more as someone like Netanyahu or Bolsonaro, all of whose strongman antics did more to harm than help their political brands and led to major backlash.

[GoTfan]

Somehow every single election is the end of life as we know it if your preferred candidate loses

Yet, the sun always comes up in the morning

Yes, obviously, the 2028 election will still be free and fair (to the extent that elections nowadays are)

Yeah, except in the last election the guy who lost actually tried to overturn it.

Yeah and he failed.

Trump will make sure this time, he's surrounded by loyalists. We were a Mike Pence away from a constitutional crisis on J6. You're a fool if you don't think he will try again, and he could succeed this time.

How are they going to enforce this?

A much better question is who is going to stop the executive branch from holding on to power at will.

The secret service, the military, the courts, congress, state governments.

1) Maybe

2) The military as a deep undercurrent of white nationalists in it, as has been reported.

3) The courts are stacked with Trump's allies because of the turtle.

4) Really? They obstructed the count as much as possible last time, and many of them implicitly (or explicitly) encouraged the mob and then fundraised off of it!

5) State legislatures are even more right-wing than the federal Republican Party at this point.

[Spectator]

I don’t really understand your fixation on this, Tekken Guy.

You say you don’t support Trump, yet are absolutely prepared to die on this hill claiming that Trump won’t push us further toward authoritarianism, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary.

If you don’t want him to be President again, why are you trying so hard to convince everyone that another Trump term won’t be as bad as many of us think? Why give him any benefit of the doubt after everything that happened after 2020?

It’s not logically inconsistent to think that Trump will try to stay in office/try to take over elections nationally while still thinking that there’s no way he can realistically do that without like supermajorities in Congress.

But why even give him the benefit of the doubt? So much of the discourse around Trump for years has been "oh, he can't actually do what he says he's going to do."

The real issue is that he says he's going to do it in the first place!

Not saying it’s necessarily smart to take that risk, just that Biden/Democrats are severely overdramatizing the risk that Trump will actually be able to do what he wants. How exactly is he going to end democracy as we know it when Democrats control the governorship and SOS of every swing state? The federal government has no power over how states run elections. Now if we had a Gov. Lake/Mastriano/Dixon/Michels and SOS Marchant/Karamo/Finchem I’d definitely be concerned.

[Tekken_Guy]

Somehow every single election is the end of life as we know it if your preferred candidate loses

Yet, the sun always comes up in the morning

Yes, obviously, the 2028 election will still be free and fair (to the extent that elections nowadays are)

Yeah, except in the last election the guy who lost actually tried to overturn it.

Yeah and he failed.

Trump will make sure this time, he's surrounded by loyalists. We were a Mike Pence away from a constitutional crisis on J6. You're a fool if you don't think he will try again, and he could succeed this time.

How are they going to enforce this?

A much better question is who is going to stop the executive branch from holding on to power at will.

The secret service, the military, the courts, congress, state governments.

1) Maybe

2) The military as a deep undercurrent of white nationalists in it, as has been reported.

3) The courts are stacked with Trump's allies because of the turtle.

4) Really? They obstructed the count as much as possible last time, and many of them implicitly (or explicitly) encouraged the mob and then fundraised off of it!

5) State legislatures are even more right-wing than the federal Republican Party at this point.

1. OK
2. Military leadership generally is pro-demogracy.
3. Right-wing judges have shown limits to what power grabs they let the GOP get away with. See Trump’s 2020 lawsuits, Allen v. Milligan, Moore v. Harper, etc.
4. 65% of house members and 90% of senators voted to certify the 2020 election. There’s nowhere near enough institutional support for a coup to happen.
3. Right-wing state legislatures are mostly located in states that no Republican would come close to losing, and have little power in swing states that actually decide the election.

[GAinDC]

Y’all are playing with fire.

I think it’s irresponsible to even have this debate.

Every supposed “safeguard” you mention can easily be toppled if enough people decide they don’t matter. Laws and institutions only have power if we all choose to follow them.

Governments crumble all the time. It could happen here in the blink of an eye, and I’m dead serious.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

He won't win

[7,052,770]

It will be "free and fair" but with national restrictions that tip the scales strongly in favor of Republicans, and those will last for decades.

[Tekken_Guy]

It will be "free and fair" but with national restrictions that tip the scales strongly in favor of Republicans, and those will last for decades.

What kinds of national restrictions?

[Mr. Smith]

Most likely, he's not competent enough to actually alter the dynamics.

[DaleCooper]

All swing states will be governed by Democrats after 2026 if Trump wins.

[Roll Roons]

All swing states will be governed by Democrats after 2026 if Trump wins.

Lombardo can definitely win reelection, but he would not try to overturn a Democratic victory in NV, especially since Democrats have comfortable majorities in the legislature and the Secretary of State position.

[DS0816]

If Trump wins, will the 2028 election be free and fair?

Not if the Democratic Party can help it.

They rig their primaries.

Most recently, they have been trying to rig the 2024 general election with trying to prevent a second term for Donald Trump.

The Democratic Party tries to control as much as they think they can control. That makes them an un-democratic Democratic Party.

[BlueSwan]

Y’all are playing with fire.

I think it’s irresponsible to even have this debate.

Every supposed “safeguard” you mention can easily be toppled if enough people decide they don’t matter. Laws and institutions only have power if we all choose to follow them.

Governments crumble all the time. It could happen here in the blink of an eye, and I’m dead serious.

This is exactly what people don't seem to understand. Western democratic institutions do NOT have magical powers. They have power because we chose to follow them. An autocratic president can ignore the courts, ignore congress, ignore state legislatures unless there is *real* power behind them. That real power is armed forces and I for one don't want to bet on the armed forces turning against Trump.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

I don’t really understand your fixation on this, Tekken Guy.

You say you don’t support Trump, yet are absolutely prepared to die on this hill claiming that Trump won’t push us further toward authoritarianism, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary.

If you don’t want him to be President again, why are you trying so hard to convince everyone that another Trump term won’t be as bad as many of us think? Why give him any benefit of the doubt after everything that happened after 2020?

I don’t support Trump and don’t want him to be president again. He will certainly make some moves towards strongman ultranationalism, namely on foreign policy and immigration issues. Foreign policy in particular seems to be my biggest concern over a second Trump administration.

But I also understand the limits to how much power he has exert outside the executive branch. Congress, the courts, state governments have all shown forms of independence from Trump.

I don’t think he’s another Putin or even an Erdogan. I see him more as someone like Netanyahu or Bolsonaro, all of whose strongman antics did more to harm than help their political brands and led to major backlash.

Institutions will not save us. Part of the reason Donald Trump has so much power is that our institutions are deeply flawed, unable to either deal with him or offer a compelling alternative. (I don't believe that justifies voting for him, but that doesn't mean its not a real problem.)

I think another four years of "President Donald Trump"* will break the United States beyond repair.

*Donald Trump is an insurrectionist who cannot constitutionally hold the office of President. The recent (worthless) Roberts Court decision did not dispute this, it just admitted they were going to let him stay on ballots anyway.