My problems with the "Trump will win because of low propensity voters theory"

[ProgressiveModerate]

This theory basically argues that as Democrats gain with college educated voters, they have gotten the more reliable voter base and are hence going to outperform in midterm and special elections, and underperform in Pres years. People use this to explain why Democrats largely did well in key states in 2022, but are likely to suffer there in 2024.

My first issue is that 2022 results and exit polling suggest Democrats won races in these key states on the back of persuasion and not a favorable electorate. Take AZ for instance; both exit polls and precinct results suggest a more favorable electorate to Republicans than 2020, yet Kelly, Hobbs, and Fontes all outran Biden. The only statewide Republican who did well was Kimberly Yee - the inoffensive incumbent Republican treasurer who largely avoided Trump.

The general theme when it came to turnout patterns were educated suburbs, both D and R leaning, tended to retain the best turnout, Republican rural areas tended to see "average" turnout dropoffs, and heavily non-white communities that lean strongly Democratic saw the biggest declines - on net this means 2022 turnout dynamics were a slight negative for Democrats relative to 2020. In some states like CA, TX, FL, and NY, 2022 turnout dynamics were clearly bad for Democrats.

More generally, the narrative that Trump/Republicans are overall the party of low propensity just isn't true, even if the party has gained with low propensity voters in recent years. Democrats still win Asian, Hispanic, and Black voters by large margins and they are also low propensity groups more likely to show up in Pres cycles. While it is true Democrats win the college educated cohort these days, it's still not by *that* big of a margin. And if you look at income there isn't a strong correlation between income and partisanship.

For this theory to be true, it'd require rural Republican friendly areas to see a turnout bump back up to 2020 while D-leaning nonwhite communities stay at 2022 levels of turnout which just seems - unlikely, even if Trump's base tends to be more enthusiastic.

There are also just some logical fallacies with this argument. For instance, most expect a turnout decline from 2020 - if Trump and the GOP are the party of low propensity voters as this theory suggests that turnout decline should disproportionately hurt him, and if it doesn't then the GOP isn't truly the party of low propensity voters.

[DrScholl]

Generally it's a bad idea to rely on low propensity voters and that hasn't changed. As I've stated before the fact that Republicans in 2022 performed better than Trump yet still lost speaks volumes.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol you always make these predictions and it doesn't pan out there was supposed to be a red wave in 22 it wasn't and I am an Eday judge. I have faith in voters doing the right thing

[heatcharger]

Presidential elections are always decided by low propensity voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope you're right.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hope you're right.

I could be right but there could still be other ways in which this theory could manifest. My argument is basically the way in which this theory is currently promoted doesn't make sense.

[RI]

Here's the party breakdown for the presidential primary in my county so far, broken down by how many of the last five general elections that voter voted in:

GE Votes	Democratic	Rrepublican	Share
0	37.5	62.5	2.7
1	43.1	57.0	4.8
2	41.3	58.7	6.7
3	49.6	50.4	11.7
4	53.5	46.5	17.5
5	57.5	42.5	57.3

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the party breakdown for the presidential primary in my county so far, broken down by how many of the last five general elections that voter voted in:

GE Votes	Democratic	Rrepublican	Share
0	37.5	62.5	2.7
1	43.1	57.0	4.8
2	41.3	58.7	6.7
3	49.6	50.4	11.7
4	53.5	46.5	17.5
5	57.5	42.5	57.3

Interesting - may I ask what county this is and how you got this data?

[TML]

To add to this point, it should be noted that 2020 had some rather unique circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated in 2024. Due to the pandemic, Democrats drastically reduced their ground game (especially in-person campaigning) while Republicans mostly maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning. This, combined with the increased utilization of mail-in voting, managed to bring out many more R-leaning voters than expected, leading to better-than-expected Republican performances in many areas around the country. Since coronavirus is now mostly a non-factor in society, we shouldn't expect there to be a significant discrepancy in the two parties' ground game this year (at least not to the magnitude it turned out to be in 2020).

[RI]

Here's the party breakdown for the presidential primary in my county so far, broken down by how many of the last five general elections that voter voted in:

GE Votes	Democratic	Rrepublican	Share
0	37.5	62.5	2.7
1	43.1	57.0	4.8
2	41.3	58.7	6.7
3	49.6	50.4	11.7
4	53.5	46.5	17.5
5	57.5	42.5	57.3

Interesting - may I ask what county this is and how you got this data?

Snohomish County, WA. Matched to voter file. Party choice and vote history is public info.

[Beet]

Turnout is not going to decline from 2020. I'm not sure who told you this was expected. Trump has a very good chance of getting more votes than any other person in U.S. history.

D-leaning nonwhite communities are not going to stay at 2022 levels. Turnout is going to surge in these communities, compared to 2022. However, people are going to be surprised at how much has shifted under their feet. Those black and brown voting blocs you have grown used to delivering reliable vote margins for Democrats are going to be a lot less solid. Those "large margins" are suddenly going to be a lot less large.

Biden will do very well among college educated white cohorts, all things considered, - due to persuasion - but any shift in his direction will be more than canceled out by the above-mentioned shift. After all, Biden won't win college educated whites by huge margins. Oh sure, the non-white heavily D communities are not going to outright flip to Trump, but the margins are going to weaken enough that it will not be enough to cancel out the huge margins and turnout set to occur in heavily white rural communities. You did not see this in the midterms because Black and Brown voters who turn out for midterms tend to be staunch party stalwarts. Look at Miami-Dade very early on election night. That is going to be indicative.

[Respect and Compassion]

I'm glad you made this thread, because I am one of the proponents of this theory and have multiple counter-points to your arguments.

"My first issue is that 2022 results and exit polling suggest Democrats won races in these key states on the back of persuasion and not a favorable electorate. Take AZ for instance; both exit polls and precinct results suggest a more favorable electorate to Republicans than 2020, yet Kelly, Hobbs, and Fontes all outran Biden. The only statewide Republican who did well was Kimberly Yee - the inoffensive incumbent Republican treasurer who largely avoided Trump."


First things first, it is quite possible for more registered Republicans to turn out for an election and have it consist of proportionally more Biden voters than the 2020 election. In the case of Arizona, you had a notably more college educated electorate in 2022 than in 2020. This meant that the electorate wasn't necessarily more 'favorable' to Republicans, because if more left-leaning independents and Biden voting registered R's turn out at higher rates than right-leaning independents and Trump voting registered D's, then it would create an electorate that actually consist of proportionally fewer Trump 2020 voters. While this is less clear in Arizona, it is certainly apparent in Pennsylvania, which had more registered R's turn out proportionally relative to 2020 but had exit polls indicate a Biden+4 electorate. Wisconsin and North Carolina also had exit polls indicate more Biden 2020 voters turning out than Trump 2020 voters.  

It is indeed the case that California, Florida, and New York had proportionally more Trump voters refuse to stay home than Biden voters, but Democrats invested hard in GOTV operations and abortion ads in the battleground states in 2022 while Republicans did not spend nearly as much. 2024 should see more noncollege whites and hispanics turn out in the battleground states to make the electorate more Trump friendly, even if it consists of proportionally fewer registered R's.

Also, Kimberly Yee was an incumbent who occupied a State Treasurer position that is relatively free from partisan polarization, so her overperformance does not guarantee that Trump will automatically underperform the typical Republican benchmarks substantially in Arizona - it's quite possible Yee would've done better in the gubernatorial race, but because that position was targeted to a greater extent, she wouldn't have done quite as well as she did in the much less partisan State Treasurer position where she was known as the incumbent.

"The general theme when it came to turnout patterns were educated suburbs, both D and R leaning, tended to retain the best turnout, Republican rural areas tended to see "average" turnout dropoffs, and heavily non-white communities that lean strongly Democratic saw the biggest declines - on net this means 2022 turnout dynamics were a slight negative for Democrats relative to 2020. In some states like CA, TX, FL, and NY, 2022 turnout dynamics were clearly bad for Democrats."


Yes, CA/TX/FL/NY had bad turnout dynamics for Democrats but WI-MI-PA in 2022 definitely was a more 'Biden voter' electorate than 2020, because of the drop-off in noncollege white voters which would have a greater impact than the drop-off in black turnout.

Note that House Republicans actually did better in Michigan with Trump on the ballot than they did with him off the ballot. The same was also true in Ohio and in other areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Michigan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Michigan

"More generally, the narrative that Trump/Republicans are overall the party of low propensity just isn't true, even if the party has gained with low propensity voters in recent years."


You're mischaracterizing the claim. While Trump still does better overall with white voters (and likely will do better with college whites in 2024 than he will with nonwhites overall, though he may actually end up doing better with hispanics than college whites), he has demonstrably well outperformed the typical R benchmarks with nonwhite voters, and with noncollege white voters.

"Democrats still win Asian, Hispanic, and Black voters by large margins and they are also low propensity groups more likely to show up in Pres cycles. "


Yes, but in 2024 it is quite likely they will decline heavily with these voters relative to 2020, even as they turn out more compared to 2022. A clear demonstration of the impact of this phenomenon is Trump's performance in Texas in 2020, where he performed in line with Cruz in metro areas but well outperformed Cruz in the border counties. Even though more nonwhite voters will turn out in 2024 relative to 2020, potentially strong unprecedented inroads among nonwhite voters can more-than-cancel-out the effect of their higher turnout, leading to Trump benefiting overall in the net effect in terms of raw vote totals.

In 2020, there were already signs in polling (very similar to what we're seeing now in 2024 polling) that Trump was going to overperform with hispanics relative to 2016, and it ended up true. We don't know what the *exact* swings will be in 2024, but it's very reasonable to expect nonwhites swing hard for Trump in 2024 because their financial situation was better in their eyes than it is under Biden, and they feel more threatened by the immigration situation now than they did under Trump...which is ironically unfortunate.

"For this theory to be true, it'd require rural Republican friendly areas to see a turnout bump back up to 2020 while D-leaning nonwhite communities stay at 2022 levels of turnout which just seems - unlikely, even if Trump's base tends to be more enthusiastic."


It definitely does NOT require D-leaning nonwhite communities to stay at 2022 levels, it merely requires a combination of their turnout to be lower than in 2020 and for Trump to persuade formerly D voting nonwhites.  

"There are also just some logical fallacies with this argument. For instance, most expect a turnout decline from 2020 - if Trump and the GOP are the party of low propensity voters as this theory suggests that turnout decline should disproportionately hurt him, and if it doesn't then the GOP isn't truly the party of low propensity voters."


As with the previous paragraph, your premise here is false. It is definitely quite possible for turnout to be lower than 2020 and for Trump to still outperform 2022 Republicans because of the fact that the noncollege whites and noncollege nonwhites who favor him much more than they do the standard Republican brand, will turn out much more in 2024 than they did in 2022. I personally expect turnout to be higher than in 2016 but lower than 2020 (though in the battleground states, it will quite possibly be higher than in 2020). This level of turnout would portend a much larger share of noncollege voters than what was seen in 2022.

I will also add, that if turnout matches 2022 (or 2018, or even if it's closer to 2016 than to 2020), that would definitely be a tougher situation for Trump than my projected scenario of in-between-2016-and-2020, but you're portraying a strawman.

I will say, however, that even with the 2022 electorate, some of the same polls that had Lake in a close race with Hobbs and Kelly leading Masters by several points, also had Trump leading Biden. In the case of a Targoz Marketing 2022 Arizona poll, it had something like Lake statistically tied, Kelly 4 points ahead of Masters, and Trump ahead by 8. In the case of Georgia, you had the same situation where the same polls showing a close Senate race had Trump performing closer to Brian Kemp than he did to Walker. I'll have to check later but I'm pretty sure the situation was the same in other states. I recall a pollster mentioning an interview with a Hispanic voter in Nevada who viewed Laxalt as too dry and didn't want to bother turning out for Laxalt, but also regretted voting for Biden in 2020 and was enthusiastic to vote for Trump in 2024 because he considered things to be better under Trump than under Biden.

Biden has unique unpopularity relative to 2022 Democrats, which is a huge reason why even with the 2022 electorate, a Trump vs Biden race would end up very different compared to a Dixon vs Whitmer race, a Laxalt vs Cortez-Masto race, an Oz vs Fetterman race, et cetera. What makes this even harder for Biden is that on top of him being more unpopular than 2022 Democrats which would make him underperform with the same 2022 electorate, his support would be even lower with an electorate comprised of larger shares of noncollege voters (mainly noncollege whites in midwestern battlegrounds and noncollege hispanics in southwestern battlegrounds), which is what 2024 will portend, even if turnout is lower than 2020's.

[Banana Republican]

My first issue is that 2022 results and exit polling suggest Democrats won races in these key states on the back of persuasion and not a favorable electorate. Take AZ for instance; both exit polls and precinct results suggest a more favorable electorate to Republicans than 2020, yet Kelly, Hobbs, and Fontes all outran Biden.

However, there is another way to interpret that.

The alternative interpretation of it is that Biden is a uniquely bad candidate who did worse than other Democrats such as Kelly, Hobbs, Fontes, or whoever else would have done if it were instead them (or someone else) who had been the Democratic nominee in 2020 (and 2024).

This may not necessarily be correct, but it seems just as consistent with the factt that other Dems outran Biden in 2022 compared to Biden 2020's performance, both in AZ and various other states. And the fact that currently, Congressional and Senatorial Dems are outpolling Biden in basically every poll.

What is the reason to favor your interpretation over that one?

[kwabbit]

Nate Cohn had some interesting data from voter files for the 2022 election. In most of the battleground states the GOP seemingly had a turnout advantage but this was driven by very high turnout among GOP-Biden voters. This makes sense given that recently persuaded Democrats are almost entirely college-educated, high social trust, value Democracy, etc. The conclusion was that Democrats didn't really persuade as many voters as you might think in 2022. Instead they carried over most of the voters they persuaded in 2020 while the rest of the electorate contracted.