Massachusetts vs Vermont

[Arizona Iced Tea]

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[Progressive Pessimist]

Massachusetts, I guess. More suburban and educated.

[Proud Independent]

None. If she couldn't win a state with a similar makeup of republicans like NH with a full month of campaigning. She's not going to win a state with more than week prior to ST. If anything she'll have a respectable showing but that's about it.

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

Massachusetts, I guess. More suburban and educated.

Massachusetts has some blue collar republican areas Trump’s made inroads like Bristol County. No such place exists in Vermont

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Massachusetts, I guess. More suburban and educated.

Massachusetts has some blue collar republican areas Trump’s made inroads like Bristol County. No such place exists in Vermont

Plenty such places exist in Vermont. Essex County, Rutland, and a couple river towns. Some are light blue, but still likely to favor Trump in the primary. And what VT doesn't have is the large amount of educated suburbanites that Massachusetts has.

[Iowa+3]

Vermont, by maybe a point or so. But she's 8 down in VT.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Mass GOP electorate has veered to the right somewhat.  

Geoff Deihl won the Gov primary in 2022 against a more moderate challenger.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Are their primaries open or closed?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

I'm going to put my New England credentials at risk here and go with Massachusetts by a hair.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Are their primaries open or closed?

Only Connecticut and Maine are closed in New England, RI allows Indies. MA, NH, VT are all open.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Massachusetts is more industrial, which kind of favors Trump. Also, Vermont is the state of Scott-Sanders voters.
Therefore, Vermont.

[Woke Frenzy]

Are their primaries open or closed?

Only Connecticut and Maine are closed in New England, RI allows Indies. MA, NH, VT are all open.

Open: VT

Modified: MA, ME, NH, RI

Closed: CT

[Holmes]

Vermont. Massachusetts has its fair share of undesirables.

[mjba257]

Vermont is the bluest state in the country, and so far this primary, the bluer and area, the better Haley does.

[Sopranos Republican]

I could've told you guys a few days ago this was gonna happen if I'd seen this thread

1. In Massachusetts there exists a relatively large contingent of retired union workers who used to be staunch Democrats, but in retirement care more about the border/culture wars than anything else. Trump's rhetoric tends to appeal to these types. This group doesn't exist in Vermont in any real numbers.

2. Vermont Republicans have firmly backed candidates at odds with Trump (shining example is Phil Scott ofc; whereas there were talks that Charlie Baker would've had to run as an independent had he sought re-election in 2022, due to the state party taking issue with his public stances against Trump.

(This is despite Baker being one of the most popular governors in the nation throughout his tenure)

3. There is a much stronger "ancestral" Republican tradition in Vermont at this point than in Massachusetts. Many old timers in Vermont were staunch Republicans back in the days when the national party was far more moderate than the Trump GOP (or the GWB GOP for that matter), which I think lends itself to a backlash against the modern GOP in some regards. (An advantage for Haley in this race)

Massachusetts on the other hand has a bunch of old timers who were staunch Democrats most of their lives, but now lean Republican due to the changing national culture, and a general revolt against cosmopolitanism which ofc leads to backing Trump. (see Fall River area for more details)

Granted, Massachusetts is on average more educated than Vermont, however it seems that most of the highly educated segments of the population aren't voting in the Republican primary to begin with.