When are we going to discuss the elephant in the room, regarding the Nov. election?

[forza nocta]

The narrative of this election so far has been that...

A.) Joe Biden is running despite being the most unpopular president in the last 50 years, with Dem voters abandoning him, including sizeable portions of their key constituencies (minorities/young ppl).

B.) Trump is more popular right now than he's been since he first ran for president in 2016. Because of this and Point A, Democrats are on the brink of disaster as Trump is poised to take back control of The White House in an epic fashion.


Yeah, these talking points all make for nice headlines and juicy election drama, but there's just one small problem with them. All of it is quite literally fiction. 



It's incredible to me that so many political watchers and people in the media continuously peddle narratives (based solely on polls) that are repeatedly smacked down by real-world evidence.

1. Trump is NOT popular (never has been) and neither is the rebranded MAGA GOP. He is broke. His party is broke. State parties are in shambles. They just tossed the RNC chair out in an election year. The GOP-led House is a dumpster fire. Republicans have been on the losing end of elections since Trump came on the scene. And most importantly, despite controlling the entire GOP apparatus and establishment, 30-40% of GOP voters have been voting AGAINST Trump in the primary elections so far. He's not popular. And this is all before we even get to the whole January 6th thing or the 91 indictments thing or the fact that he's running the most negative, grievance-filled, policy-free campaign for a major party candidate... ever?

2. Biden is NOT unpopular. He is winning 80-90%+ of the D vote in primaries, despite widespread media handwringing about his party supposedly being unhappy with him. None of the other major Dem players are running/going against him, but instead, they are all campaigning for him! Democrats have won election after election in key states and areas over the last several years. None of these things happen under an unpopular president! Biden has also been getting the standard Dem percentages in both black and college precincts in primaries so far, proving a fundamental error occurring in polling. And lastly, his campaign has been breaking fundraising records. 

What happened to critical thinking? Are we seriously gonna do the 2022 red wave thing all over again this year and be shocked when (spoiler alert) Trump and the GOP lose again? There are eight months still to go, so a lot can still change, but Biden is in the driver's seat for November and is quickly pulling ahead. 

[7,052,770]

Ultimately we just don't know what's going on. It would be weird for the polls to show one thing this consistently and be wrong. However, it's weird for an incumbent with this level of accomplishment and these economic indicators to be trailing by a lot. And it would be extremely weird for an incumbent party on track to lose by double-digits in the swing states to perform this well in special elections, even picking up a House seat last week.

Yeah, yeah, I know the polls show that Biden himself is super unpopular but the party isn't, but there's not much precedent for that looking at the last few decades - unpopular presidents always drag down their party, so if Biden is an exception, that's strange.

Something weird and unprecedented is going on, we just don't really know what it is. I've stopped voting in the polls on this board of "who will win?" because I just don't have any basis that I feel I can really count on to make a prediction.

[DS0816]

…
2. Biden is NOT unpopular. He is winning 80-90%+ of the D vote in primaries, …

…

That is a funny, early April Fools’ Day post.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

…
2. Biden is NOT unpopular. He is winning 80-90%+ of the D vote in primaries, …

…

That is a funny, early April Fools’ Day post.

There have been four contests on the Dem side so far. Biden has broken 80% in 3 of the 4, with his total cumulative popular vote breaking 80%.. You can argue how meaningful it is for Biden to get that percentage, given that he’s basically unopposed, but he is literally winning 81.9% of the popular vote thus far. And that’s including winning NH as a write-in.

[Barack Oganja]

…
2. Biden is NOT unpopular. He is winning 80-90%+ of the D vote in primaries, …

…

That is a funny, early April Fools’ Day post.

There have been four contests on the Dem side so far. Biden has broken 80% in 3 of the 4, with his total cumulative popular vote breaking 80%.. You can argue how meaningful it is for Biden to get that percentage, given that he’s basically unopposed, but he is literally winning 81.9% of the popular vote thus far. And that’s including winning NH as a write-in.

I will in fact argue that Biden's primary totals are meaningless when he's effectively running unopposed. He may yet win the election, but he is NOT popular

[Whale Psychiatrist]

Biden may be winning his primary pretty handily for a guy the media is portraying as far too old for his job, but is he popular outside of the most engaged card-carrying Democrats? If this election was another referendum on Roe and the GOP's descent into authoritarianism, we'd probably have more polls like 2022 which were a far better portent for the Dems than this year's are.

[GAinDC]

I think there are a lot of great points in OP's analysis. Conventional wisdom and actual election results do not match up with much of the polling and the media narratives, and we should be skeptical -- especially after many recent election cycles had pretty sizable polling errors, and the voters ended up feeling very different than the pundits predicted. People have a right to be skeptical

However, as a Dem living in Washington, DC it's clear there is not a lot of enthusiasm around Biden and his campaign, and that's a problem that he, his campaign and his supporters shouldn't wave away. A lot of it feels vibes-based, which makes it even harder to address.

All in all, I think Biden is still very much in this race, even though he's facing headwinds. And after spending a lot of time fretting and obsessing over polls and other data points in this election and others, I'm learning how to utilize them, but not to live and die by them.

One thing I will NEVER do is wave the white flag before a single vote is even cast. That's what Trump is counting on in his race to the bottom.

[Respect and Compassion]

Your premises are false. First of all, many who are predicting a Biden loss do not consider Trump to be 'popular' - they merely consider him to be more popular than Biden is at this point in time; moreover, likely to remain more popular than Biden as the economy worsens, as the immigration situation gets worse, and as the circumstances in the Ukraine and Israel worsen.

Trump's favorabilities in some polls are much higher than they were in 2016! And for the most part, his favorability is about the same as it was in 2020, which was a close race against a Biden much less unpopular than he is now.

Furthermore, it is beyond inaccurate to say that Biden is unpopular merely because he's attaining high percentages in the primaries. Overall turnout is low, and his percentages are lower than the typical benchmarks for incumbents running against low level challengers.

In Nevada, (unless the results updated to produce a substantially higher turnout) his turnout in the primary was a lot lower than Cortez-Masto's in 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Nevada_Democratic_presidential_primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada#Democratic_primary

Biden2024 at 119,758 compared to CCM2022 at 159,694. That's rather atrocious!

In Michigan, he got a lower raw vote total in his mainly uncontested primary than Trump got in the 2020 Michigan Republican primary, and whereas Trump got 93.7% that year, Biden only got ~82%. Turnout for the 2024 Democratic primary in Michigan was also substantially lower than in 2016, despite mail-in voting making it a lot easier to vote than it was in 2016.

And yes, while he wasn't on the ballot in New Hampshire, 65% is arguably pretty bad for an incumbent President.

Your assertion that Biden isn't unpopular is simply really far off the mark. Even if you assume that all the polls have 0 reliability, an examination of the turnout numbers in the primaries so far and the lower percentages compared to typical percentages for an incumbent President, will indicate that Biden definitely has popularity problems.

[GAinDC]

I will admit that Joe Biden is not popular right now, but I don't think Trump is somehow much more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020. It doesn't make sense logically. Sometimes, you gotta trust your gut.

You can mention every poll or theory in the book, but it doesn't square with common sense. He is the most polarizing man in America who never got more than 46.7% of the vote, and has become even more controversial since he lost in 2020.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

What happened to critical thinking? Are we seriously gonna do the 2022 red wave thing all over again this year and be shocked when (spoiler alert) Trump and the GOP lose again? There are eight months still to go, so a lot can still change, but Biden is in the driver's seat for November and is quickly pulling ahead. 

Mass corporate media profits from a (dishonest) horserace narrative, and a significant fraction likely hope to profit from a Trump win.

(Trump absolutely, nauseatingly, has a real chance to win. But the mass media narrative is fabricated even more than usual.)

[Duke 🇺🇸]

The problem is the media is covering Trump as if he is a normal politician running for office. There was a poll conducted recently that showed something like 31% of respondants had heard of all the authoritarian crazy things Trump has promised to do if re-elected.

So ~70% of voters don't know Trump has promised to baselessly prosecute Biden, round up immigrants and put them into "camps." Suspend parts of the Constitution he disagrees with. Become a dictator for a day. Sign a nationwide abortion ban. Etc.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What frustrates all predictions about this election and the candidates' unpopularity is that an unenthusiastic vote carries just as much weight as an enthusiastic one. You don't get a bonus for having enthusiastic voters if you are the minority. Many politicians have enthusiastic fanbases but lose anyways, and those politicians become historical footnotes that only politics nerds and Wikipedia editors know about.

Like if Biden wins in 2024, despite being less popular...does enthusiasm even matter, then? It doesn't change anything. Biden will still be President and he will be the one making decisions. Same as when Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, but it didn't matter; he was President for four years and he made decisions. Same thing if he wins fewer votes in 2024 but wins the electoral college.

If Biden wins again, will the narrative about his Presidency 50 years from now really include that everyone was just so unenthusiastic about him? Will it matter if the exit polls this year show that a majority of the country was more against Trump than for Biden, if Biden wins, just like in 2020?

Biden is unpopular, I don't think anyone can ignore/deny that. But if Democratic voters are motivated and keep turning out in election after election....does it matter anymore? Republicans are doing a great job scaring the absolute hell out of people, and that may be the real deciding factor in this election as it was in the last few cycles.

That's why I have no clue what to expect from this election in November

[GAinDC]

What frustrates all predictions about this election and the candidates' unpopularity is that an unenthusiastic vote carries just as much weight as an enthusiastic one. You don't get a bonus for having enthusiastic voters if you are the minority. Many politicians have enthusiastic fanbases but lose anyways, and those politicians become historical footnotes that only politics nerds and Wikipedia editors know about.

Like if Biden wins in 2024, despite being less popular...does enthusiasm even matter, then? It doesn't change anything. Biden will still be President and he will be the one making decisions. Same as when Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, but it didn't matter; he was President for four years and he made decisions. Same thing if he wins fewer votes in 2024 but wins the electoral college.

If Biden wins again, will the narrative about his Presidency 50 years from now really include that everyone was just so unenthusiastic about him? Will it matter if the exit polls this year show that a majority of the country was more against Trump than for Biden, if Biden wins, just like in 2020?

Biden is unpopular, I don't think anyone can ignore/deny that. But if Democratic voters are motivated and keep turning out in election after election....does it matter anymore? Republicans are doing a great job scaring the absolute hell out of people, and that may be the real deciding factor in this election as it was in the last few cycles.

That's why I have no clue what to expect from this election in November

A conversation I have had with many friends and family, which seems to be echoed in focus groups, goes like this:

Friend: "Biden shouldn't run. He's too old/hasn't done enough/needs to step aside for younger candidates."

Me: "I get that, but if it's Biden vs. Trump, will you still vote for Biden?"

Friend: "Absolutely."

[forza nocta]

…
2. Biden is NOT unpopular. He is winning 80-90%+ of the D vote in primaries, …

…

That is a funny, early April Fools’ Day post.

There have been four contests on the Dem side so far. Biden has broken 80% in 3 of the 4, with his total cumulative popular vote breaking 80%.. You can argue how meaningful it is for Biden to get that percentage, given that he’s basically unopposed, but he is literally winning 81.9% of the popular vote thus far. And that’s including winning NH as a write-in.

I will in fact argue that Biden's primary totals are meaningless when he's effectively running unopposed. He may yet win the election, but he is NOT popular

Why is Biden running unopposed if he's so unpopular? Carter and HW Bush had pretty legit primary challengers in their re-election campaigns.

[forza nocta]

I think there are a lot of great points in OP's analysis. Conventional wisdom and actual election results do not match up with much of the polling and the media narratives, and we should be skeptical -- especially after many recent election cycles had pretty sizable polling errors, and the voters ended up feeling very different than the pundits predicted. People have a right to be skeptical

However, as a Dem living in Washington, DC it's clear there is not a lot of enthusiasm around Biden and his campaign, and that's a problem that he, his campaign and his supporters shouldn't wave away. A lot of it feels vibes-based, which makes it even harder to address.

All in all, I think Biden is still very much in this race, even though he's facing headwinds. And after spending a lot of time fretting and obsessing over polls and other data points in this election and others, I'm learning how to utilize them, but not to live and die by them.

One thing I will NEVER do is wave the white flag before a single vote is even cast. That's what Trump is counting on in his race to the bottom.

Yeah, I won't deny that enthusiasm *for* Biden right now is probably low among most normie Dems. But 8 months and a massive money pile will turn that around with ease. Especially since Biden has actual accomplishments to run on this time and it's not just Trump Trump Trump.

Also, that's another thing a lot of people are forgetting... ITS MARCH. Biden has not started his GE campaign at all. We've basically seen already the best Trump has to offer... and its not great lol it's going to be downhill for him from here on out. Don't forget Dems literally have a billion dollars to work with here. This is not going to be a normal election guys, y'all have not seen anything yet.

[GAinDC]

I think there are a lot of great points in OP's analysis. Conventional wisdom and actual election results do not match up with much of the polling and the media narratives, and we should be skeptical -- especially after many recent election cycles had pretty sizable polling errors, and the voters ended up feeling very different than the pundits predicted. People have a right to be skeptical

However, as a Dem living in Washington, DC it's clear there is not a lot of enthusiasm around Biden and his campaign, and that's a problem that he, his campaign and his supporters shouldn't wave away. A lot of it feels vibes-based, which makes it even harder to address.

All in all, I think Biden is still very much in this race, even though he's facing headwinds. And after spending a lot of time fretting and obsessing over polls and other data points in this election and others, I'm learning how to utilize them, but not to live and die by them.

One thing I will NEVER do is wave the white flag before a single vote is even cast. That's what Trump is counting on in his race to the bottom.

Yeah, I won't deny that enthusiasm *for* Biden right now is probably low among most normie Dems. But 8 months and a massive money pile will turn that around with ease. Especially since Biden has actual accomplishments to run on this time and it's not just Trump Trump Trump.

Also, that's another thing a lot of people are forgetting... ITS MARCH. Biden has not started his GE campaign at all. We've basically seen already the best Trump has to offer... and its not great lol it's going to be downhill for him from here on out. Don't forget Dems literally have a billion dollars to work with here. This is not going to be a normal election guys, y'all have not seen anything yet.

I like your optimism!

What are you predicting?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden isn't exactly popular, but Trump certainly isn't either outside of his base-I'll agree with you there. I really think he is being overestimated. It's just going to be a matter of Biden making sure anti-Trump voters coalesce around him rather than sit out the election or vote third party.

 That's going to take a very focused campaign that can balance Biden's affirmative aspects with Trump's negstives, perhaps even involving refreshing peoples' memories about what a mess Trump's first term actually was, and how unhinged he is going to be in his second. I think they're up for it though.

[forza nocta]

I think there are a lot of great points in OP's analysis. Conventional wisdom and actual election results do not match up with much of the polling and the media narratives, and we should be skeptical -- especially after many recent election cycles had pretty sizable polling errors, and the voters ended up feeling very different than the pundits predicted. People have a right to be skeptical

However, as a Dem living in Washington, DC it's clear there is not a lot of enthusiasm around Biden and his campaign, and that's a problem that he, his campaign and his supporters shouldn't wave away. A lot of it feels vibes-based, which makes it even harder to address.

All in all, I think Biden is still very much in this race, even though he's facing headwinds. And after spending a lot of time fretting and obsessing over polls and other data points in this election and others, I'm learning how to utilize them, but not to live and die by them.

One thing I will NEVER do is wave the white flag before a single vote is even cast. That's what Trump is counting on in his race to the bottom.

Yeah, I won't deny that enthusiasm *for* Biden right now is probably low among most normie Dems. But 8 months and a massive money pile will turn that around with ease. Especially since Biden has actual accomplishments to run on this time and it's not just Trump Trump Trump.

Also, that's another thing a lot of people are forgetting... ITS MARCH. Biden has not started his GE campaign at all. We've basically seen already the best Trump has to offer... and its not great lol it's going to be downhill for him from here on out. Don't forget Dems literally have a billion dollars to work with here. This is not going to be a normal election guys, y'all have not seen anything yet.

I like your optimism!

What are you predicting?

Right now, I feel pretty good about Biden getting his 2020 states + NC. There could also be another 2-3 states in play if this year goes well.

[wbrocks67]

…
2. Biden is NOT unpopular. He is winning 80-90%+ of the D vote in primaries, …

…

That is a funny, early April Fools’ Day post.

His average last night was 86% in 15 contests.

[wbrocks67]

I think there are a lot of great points in OP's analysis. Conventional wisdom and actual election results do not match up with much of the polling and the media narratives, and we should be skeptical -- especially after many recent election cycles had pretty sizable polling errors, and the voters ended up feeling very different than the pundits predicted. People have a right to be skeptical

However, as a Dem living in Washington, DC it's clear there is not a lot of enthusiasm around Biden and his campaign, and that's a problem that he, his campaign and his supporters shouldn't wave away. A lot of it feels vibes-based, which makes it even harder to address.

All in all, I think Biden is still very much in this race, even though he's facing headwinds. And after spending a lot of time fretting and obsessing over polls and other data points in this election and others, I'm learning how to utilize them, but not to live and die by them.

One thing I will NEVER do is wave the white flag before a single vote is even cast. That's what Trump is counting on in his race to the bottom.

To me this is a very contextual question, because it relies on what you mean as 'enthusiasm' for Joe Biden. I'm going to be honest, I like Joe Biden a lot but even in 2020, there was not a whole lot of enthusiasm for him. Yes, there was a ton of people who were ready to beat Trump and have him lose, but enthusiasm for Biden *himself*? I remember feeling the same way even back then about things - frustrated that people were meh on him, he was too old, they were just voting for him as a means to an end. I say this as a millennial where there was tons of enthusiasm for beating Trump in 2020, but enthusiasm for Biden? I was pretty alone in that department, at least in my circle (with a lot of nonpolitical friends and family)

However, he won. And it feels like the same thing now in a lot of ways; there's a lot of ambivalence towards Biden himself. He wasn't most peoples 'first choice', but once again, he's a means to an end in terms of beating Trump.

[GAinDC]

I think there are a lot of great points in OP's analysis. Conventional wisdom and actual election results do not match up with much of the polling and the media narratives, and we should be skeptical -- especially after many recent election cycles had pretty sizable polling errors, and the voters ended up feeling very different than the pundits predicted. People have a right to be skeptical

However, as a Dem living in Washington, DC it's clear there is not a lot of enthusiasm around Biden and his campaign, and that's a problem that he, his campaign and his supporters shouldn't wave away. A lot of it feels vibes-based, which makes it even harder to address.

All in all, I think Biden is still very much in this race, even though he's facing headwinds. And after spending a lot of time fretting and obsessing over polls and other data points in this election and others, I'm learning how to utilize them, but not to live and die by them.

One thing I will NEVER do is wave the white flag before a single vote is even cast. That's what Trump is counting on in his race to the bottom.

To me this is a very contextual question, because it relies on what you mean as 'enthusiasm' for Joe Biden. I'm going to be honest, I like Joe Biden a lot but even in 2020, there was not a whole lot of enthusiasm for him. Yes, there was a ton of people who were ready to beat Trump and have him lose, but enthusiasm for Biden *himself*? I remember feeling the same way even back then about things - frustrated that people were meh on him, he was too old, they were just voting for him as a means to an end. I say this as a millennial where there was tons of enthusiasm for beating Trump in 2020, but enthusiasm for Biden? I was pretty alone in that department, at least in my circle (with a lot of nonpolitical friends and family)

However, he won. And it feels like the same thing now in a lot of ways; there's a lot of ambivalence towards Biden himself. He wasn't most peoples 'first choice', but once again, he's a means to an end in terms of beating Trump.

Biden is simply not as popular as he was in 2020, meanwhile Trump at the very least is as popular as he was in 2020.

So I think Biden faces stiffer headwinds this time, but those main ingredients you speak of are still there, so Biden can still win.

[DS0816]

Why is Biden running unopposed if he's so unpopular? Carter and HW Bush had pretty legit primary challengers in their re-election campaigns.

Donald Trump received 94 percent in total votes nationwide for re-nomination with the 2020 Republican presidential primaries…and he became unseated.

I will mention this: All states plus District of Columbia, as we are used to with general elections, have participated in the presidential-nominating process since 1976 (Democratic Party) and 1980 (Republican Party).

The incumbent U.S. presidents who won re-elections to a second consecutive term were: Ronald Reagan (1984); Bill Clinton (1996); George W. Bush (2004); and Barack Obama (2008). In the primaries, with total votes cast, all of them received 89 percent and above. Bush received 98 percent. Reagan received 99 percent.

Effective March 10, 2024, Democratic incumbent Joe Biden has received 85.7 percent.

Biden may increase, especially after other candidates’s dropouts, and the later contests in which participating voters effectively concede nomination is Biden’s…and they use their votes to reflect that. However, there is another problem.

According to Wikipedia, “[U.S. president Joe] Biden, who lost American Samoa to venture capitalist Jason Palmer, became the first incumbent president to lose a contest while appearing on the ballot since Jimmy Carter in 1980.”

There is also the Uncommitted (or other wording) vote.

More than 10 percent in leading bellwether state Michigan (one of only three states which has carried for presidential winners since 2008 and will do so again here in 2024); upcoming bellwether state North Carolina (the No. 25 best-performed state, of 25 carried states, for 2020 Donald Trump and the Republicans…and No. 26 for Joe Biden and the Democrats); and sleeper state Minnesota (which was the Republicans’s No. 32 best state, in 2016 and 2020, and the party—when they win U.S. President—tends to carry 30 or 31 states). In Hawaii—the Democrats’s No. 1 best-performed state in percentage-points margin with the three consecutive election cycles of 2008, 2012, and 2016—the vote was 29 percent.

Uncommitted has received, so far, 5 percent. Among states which have outpaced that 5 percent: Nevada (positioned to become a 2024 Republican pickup); Alabama: Colorado; Massachusetts; and Tennessee. And this takes into consideration not all states have the option on their ballots. Among them are the U.S.’s two most-populous states, California and Texas.

Right now, I feel pretty good about Biden getting his 2020 states + NC. There could also be another 2-3 states in play if this year goes well.

No.

If you go to the following link, you may understand why.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=583614.msg9399289#msg9399289

[All Along The Watchtower]

The real elephant in the room is that the Republican Party doesn't exist without that one (1) loathsome piece of excrement, who really should have gotten the penalty for treason after January 6th, 2021 (it's one he and his supporters wanted to do his own Vice President and members of Congress on that day).

Our legal institutions are themselves failing to do their basic duty here.