Super Tuesday (March 5) primaries thread

[oldtimer]

For those interested in hand counts, the linked article is worth a read:

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1765478129655746614

I don't know what they are doing.

In comparison in Greece it takes about 90 minutes for 4 people to count 200 ballots.

How many races are on a ballot in Greece?

Only one at each ballot, if there are multiple races they each have their own separate ballot and ballot box, cast and counted separately.

[kwabbit]

For those interested in hand counts, the linked article is worth a read:

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1765478129655746614

I don't know what they are doing.

In comparison in Greece it takes about 90 minutes for 4 people to count 200 ballots.

How many races are on a ballot in Greece?

Only one at each ballot, if there are multiple races they each have their own separate ballot and ballot box, cast and counted separately.

That seems slow too. With a finger counter it seems like each person could do a few hundred per hour.

[oldtimer]

For those interested in hand counts, the linked article is worth a read:

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1765478129655746614

I don't know what they are doing.

In comparison in Greece it takes about 90 minutes for 4 people to count 200 ballots.

How many races are on a ballot in Greece?

Only one at each ballot, if there are multiple races they each have their own separate ballot and ballot box, cast and counted separately.

That seems slow too. With a finger counter it seems like each person could do a few hundred per hour.

Here's the run down:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Each party has it's own specific ballot with all of their party candidates on it, for each specific race.

Each party also has a representative in each precinct.

Each precinct has about 500 voters.

Election workers are selected at random from the voter registry.

Election workers make stacks of all the specific ballots.

Voters come in and are handed a stack when they show photo ID in the precinct they are registered.
Then they mark the candidate they want on their party ballot in the privacy of the polling booth.
Then they come out and cast their ballot in a transparent sealed box, that is dedicated for that specific race.

When polls close the workers empty the ballot box and start counting one by one, under the supervision of an Attorney and all the party representatives.
If no one objects the process is smooth.

1st the party vote is counted and the results transmitted, and then the candidate vote is counted.

A physical copy of the whole process is kept.

It's a bit like the UK, but because every local school room is it's own precinct, and all votes are counted in the precincts, and the ratio of poll workers to voters being around 1/100, the results come within 90 minutes.

Usually this limits voting fraud, but it's not uncommon that some limited fraud may take place in close races, due to the long chain link in the process.

That's the reason why party representatives also keep a ledger of each vote cast to aid in any legal challenge, and they have to sign off on the results before those become official.

[2016]

Trump now at 1,066 Delegates per FOX NEWS & NYT, excatly 149 Delegates shy from clinching the Republican Nomination.

99 % of the Super Tuesday Delegates (854) have been allocated. Nikki Haley could reach 100 Delegates Overall if she stays above 50 % in Vermont, otherwise it will porportional. There is 1 Delegate each left to be allocated from Colorado & North Carolina.

https://www.foxnews.com/elections

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/republican-primary-delegates-tracker-calendar.html

CNN, CBS, NBC and ABC got it all wrong on ST when they said 865 Delegates were available. Only 854 were available since the remaining 11 Texas Delegates will be allocated at their State Convention in May.

[Sorenroy]

Not that it matters, but Haley did end up crossing 50.0% in VT.

NYT Vermont Election Results

I've consistently overestimated Trump's percentage of the vote in basically every single primary election so far. While I really was pretty locked on Trump winning Vermont, it's probably my most embarrassing prediction error that I left it as safe Trump rather than changing it to only lean. My guess was something around 56% Trump, 42% Haley, 2% Other and I forgot to adjust the certainty when I made the prediction and ultimately decided Trump was going to win anyway and it wasn't worth going back and making another change. Still, it's an embarrassing mark on what I think is otherwise a good set of predictions on the Atlas.

But I'm a random individual doing this for fun. The University of New Hampshire Research Center, which is given a pollster rating of 2.6/3 by 538, should see their 61% Trump - 31% Haley poll as discrediting to their current polling methodology. A 34% overall error makes this poll worse than useless. It's not a polling average error, so I'm not going to use it to decry the whole system, but an individual org. getting it that wrong feels like something that puts you out of business.

[2016]

@wbrocks67

Haley now under 50 % in Vermont per CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/vermont

[GeorgiaModerate]

48% of Haley voters in VA approve of Biden's job performance (1% of Trump's voters).

Since around 5% of Republicans approve of Biden, suggests very high share, maybe 40% of Haley's voters in VA are democrats.

This is actually a thing

My friend in GA who is very liberal and will vote for Biden this year says she plans to vote for Haley in the GOP primary.

I'm considering doing the same thing.  Really haven't decided yet.

If anyone was curious: I was probably going to vote for Haley until she suspended her campaign, which made it seem pointless.  Voted for Biden today at a Forsyth County early voting site.  It was empty; one other voter came in as I was leaving.

[2016]

Per Vermont Secretary of State Haley is under 50 % in the State meaning she gets 9 Delegates and Trump gets 8. When those Delegates for Trump are factored in he is at 1,083 or 1,084.

https://electionresults.vermont.gov/#/

[Dwarven Dragon]

Per Vermont Secretary of State Haley is under 50 % in the State meaning she gets 9 Delegates and Trump gets 8. When those Delegates for Trump are factored in he is at 1,083 or 1,084.

https://electionresults.vermont.gov/#/

Both NYT and Green Papers seem to suggest that Write-Ins, Overvotes, and Blanks do not factor into the allocation. Without those taken into account, Haley is north of 50%.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/VT-R
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-vermont-republican-presidential-primary.html

[Coconut Decider]

On a somewhat related note, does anybody know what is going on in the township of Readsboro, Vermont? I don't know if it's an error, but currently Ramaswamy is second with 37% of the vote. Bristol had a similar error, but was fixed a while ago, so I'm beginning to think this is actually the correct vote tally.

[2016]

Per Vermont Secretary of State Haley is under 50 % in the State meaning she gets 9 Delegates and Trump gets 8. When those Delegates for Trump are factored in he is at 1,083 or 1,084.

https://electionresults.vermont.gov/#/

Both NYT and Green Papers seem to suggest that Write-Ins, Overvotes, and Blanks do not factor into the allocation. Without those taken into account, Haley is north of 50%.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/VT-R
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-vermont-republican-presidential-primary.html

Green Papers are irrelevant. I am looking to the VT SoS Office for clarity.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sambbenson/status/1768359389747151262