Super Tuesday (March 5) primaries thread

[Sestak]

Minnesota is unambigiously a pretty bad number for Biden. It's also perhaps one we should have expected. The state is exactly you'd expect a large concentration of lefty voters who are very unhappy over Biden's handling of Gaza and other issues but would still vote in a Democratic primary.

[Woke Frenzy]

Who would have predicted prior to this primary season that more Democratic candidates would win a county their basically unopposed primary than Republicans would in theirs? 😂

[Holmes]

Who would have predicted prior to this primary season that more Democratic candidates would win a county their basically unopposed primary than Republicans would in theirs? 😂

The one lone Loving, TX Democratic voter had way too much power over the map.

Also I checked the website for the guy he voted for. Frank Lozada. His slogan is "LET'S DO GREAT THING TOGETHER." So that's something.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Obama got 96% of the vote in MN  

Uncommitted is overperforming in the pivotal swing states. It got 13-19% in MI, MN, and NC, which is higher than average.

Uncommitted literally got 20% in NC for Obama in 2012 (and 11% in MI), so no...

And 14% in Massachusetts.

Not nearly as many as in the US.
That said, fast counting is a relatively recent phenomenon. I remember even ten years ago we had to stay up sometimes until 12am to have final results.

None of this seems related to the comment you're quoting.

[Woke Frenzy]

Who would have predicted prior to this primary season that more Democratic candidates would win a county their basically unopposed primary than Republicans would in theirs? 😂

The one lone Loving, TX Democratic voter had way too much power over the map.

Also I checked the website for the guy he voted for. Frank Lozada. His slogan is "LET'S DO GREAT THING TOGETHER." So that's something.

Even if you disregard that one troll in Loving County, the Democratic county map still remains more colorful than the Republican county map.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

More candidates won a county in the 2012 Democratic primary than did in 2008 or 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is an interesting map from @fat_ugly_rat on twitter that compares Trump vs Biden+Haley in Harris County. Really gives vibes of what people might stereotypically expect the counties politics to look like if current trends continue - Trump does notably better in many Hispanic areas but Biden+Haley does well in the western sector of the city which tends to be more college educated.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JakeRugh/status/1765581742910664957
Trump has a huge Mormon problem, even after appointing the judges who overturned Roe. It won't be enough to make UT competitive (yet), but AZ and NV have not-insignificant Mormon populations as well.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JakeRugh/status/1765581742910664957
Trump has a huge Mormon problem, even after appointing the judges who overturned Roe. It won't be enough to make UT competitive (yet), but AZ and NV have not-insignificant Mormon populations as well.

He had a bigger Mormon problem in 2016 than he does now.


This isn't new.

[wbrocks67]

CA really only was bothered to count <100k votes yesterday, amazing

[Sir Mohamed]

CA really only was bothered to count <100k votes yesterday, amazing

It's just embarrassing, tbh. The rest of the civilized world would get that done in a single day.

[wbrocks67]

CA really only was bothered to count <100k votes yesterday, amazing

It's just embarrassing, tbh. The rest of the civilized world would get that done in a single day.

I just don't get the process - it's like they want to stretch it out as long as possible. The whole "every day will give updates at 8pm for the 20 votes we counted today" - why is it so hard to just hire more election workers around the clock 2x a year(max) to make sure this gets done faster? There's no reason why it should take this long. I get that it's the biggest state, it will take a little time. But it certainly feels like they could be counting much more each day than they actually are.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

CA really only was bothered to count <100k votes yesterday, amazing

It's just embarrassing, tbh. The rest of the civilized world would get that done in a single day.

I just don't get the process - it's like they want to stretch it out as long as possible. The whole "every day will give updates at 8pm for the 20 votes we counted today" - why is it so hard to just hire more election workers around the clock 2x a year(max) to make sure this gets done faster? There's no reason why it should take this long. I get that it's the biggest state, it will take a little time. But it certainly feels like they could be counting much more each day than they actually are.

Credit where it's due, the Babylon Bee absolutely nailed this (Arizona, not California, but basically the same thing in both): https://babylonbee.com/news/arizona-announces-they-have-finished-counting-and-calvin-coolidge-has-won-their-3-electoral-votes

[wbrocks67]

Not that it matters, but Haley did end up crossing 50.0% in VT

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-vermont-republican-presidential-primary.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc&region=FreeformText

[Arizona Iced Tea]

For poll counting they need to hire people, give them a $1000 stipend, food, drinks, sleeping bags, etc. But no one leaves the building until all the votes are tabulated (barring overseas ballots or weird exceptions that won't impact the outcome).

[wbrocks67]

For poll counting they need to hire people, give them a $1000 stipend, food, drinks, sleeping bags, etc. But no one leaves the building until all the votes are tabulated (barring overseas ballots or weird exceptions that won't impact the outcome).

Honestly, I would be on board for this. Set aside money from the budget for this, and keep tabulating 24/7 without stopping. Do like 3 8-hour sets where people do it in shifts.

[walleye26]

When will we know if Haley got 9 or 17 delegates from Vermont?

[DrScholl]

There are thousands and thousands of votes in several California counties so it takes awhile to count them properly. It's better to get the count right slowly than get it done wrong quickly. The last thing you need to inaccurate results that have to be corrected.

[wbrocks67]

There are thousands and thousands of votes in several California counties so it takes awhile to count them properly. It's better to get the count right slowly than get it done wrong quickly. The last thing you need to inaccurate results that have to be corrected.

I mean no one is denying this though. There's no reason why you can't efficiently count fast at the same time.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Vivek has won a town in Maine

Definitely a data entry error.

[NOVA Green]

There are thousands and thousands of votes in several California counties so it takes awhile to count them properly. It's better to get the count right slowly than get it done wrong quickly. The last thing you need to inaccurate results that have to be corrected.

Should also be noted that many counties in CA move from daily updates to updates several times a week after E-Day.

More votes are probably being counted than are reported it's just that the data uploads become less frequent the further from E-Day.

I also suspect that the lack of any major significant political import also makes counties less likely to pay OT to count votes since all of the top level races have already been decided.

[Roll Roons]

California once again slow in counting? Seems like not even 50% are in. Honestly, this is kind of sad for a first world country and its biggest state.

Whild I didn't expect Porter to advance to November, she performed worse than I thought.

We have a very inclusive voting system that allows peoples votes to be counted securely. I think that is more important than getting instantaneous results for the media.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Ease of voting and ballot security don’t need to be mutually exclusive with counting speed.

A day or two is one thing. 2-3 weeks should never be acceptable.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/JakeRugh/status/1765581742910664957
Trump has a huge Mormon problem, even after appointing the judges who overturned Roe. It won't be enough to make UT competitive (yet), but AZ and NV have not-insignificant Mormon populations as well.

He had a bigger Mormon problem in 2016 than he does now.


This isn't new.

Accentuated by the fact that Summit County with wealthiest Household Income and with highest educational attainment rate voted +16% Trump in the UT Primary.

Utah County is clearly a warning sign for Trump in '24, and although UT will not be a competitive state in the '24 GE, there are plenty of Mormon voters in swing states throughout the US.

Elections are won and lost at the margins but certainly one could imagine swings at the margins in AZ and NV could impact PREZ GE numbers for sure...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

California once again slow in counting? Seems like not even 50% are in. Honestly, this is kind of sad for a first world country and its biggest state.

Whild I didn't expect Porter to advance to November, she performed worse than I thought.

We have a very inclusive voting system that allows peoples votes to be counted securely. I think that is more important than getting instantaneous results for the media.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Ease of voting and ballot security don’t need to be mutually exclusive with counting speed.

A day or two is one thing. 2-3 weeks should never be acceptable.

CA takes 5-6 weeks to count their votes, not only 2-3 weeks.

Other states manage to count their votes in 1 or 2 days and even a few smaller CA counties have almost all of their votes counted on election day.

It's just a design flaw in their voting law and a small number of vote counting personnel. In fact, there are hundreds of thousands of retired people that could be summoned in each election, similar to jury duty and the vote would be counted in hours.

[Joe Biden 2028]

I don't think the Biden campaign should worry about MN. The defections come from Muslims and Leftists upset about Gaza. If the war is finished by Nov, which I suspect it will, they will return to stop a Trump victory.

I think Atlas is scared its a repeat of Hillary losing the MI primary in 2016, foreshadowing her weaknesses with WWC voters in the general.  Its not the same. Later I will post a more detailed explanation.