Super Tuesday (March 5) primaries thread

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This is the place to discuss turnout, results etc. on Tuesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think there should be one results thread to keep it lively and popping.

Actually?

I think that would be a big mess (so many posts per second that you cannot follow them properly).

For a competitive Election Day maybe but there isn’t enough suspense tomorrow to make that many posts. I think one would just get super busy and the others would die.

A better breakdown would be presidential/congressional IMO. Personally, I have all the congressional primaries in one spot in my mind and the presidential contest in another spot. Not like California as a whole vs. Texas as a whole.

We do have a separate Congressional Elections board.  I don't think we need to split up the Super Tuesday primary results like this, so I'm going to merge the three threads.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think there should be one results thread to keep it lively and popping.

Actually?

I think that would be a big mess (so many posts per second that you cannot follow them properly).

For a competitive Election Day maybe but there isn’t enough suspense tomorrow to make that many posts. I think one would just get super busy and the others would die.

A better breakdown would be presidential/congressional IMO. Personally, I have all the congressional primaries in one spot in my mind and the presidential contest in another spot. Not like California as a whole vs. Texas as a whole.

We do have a separate Congressional Elections board.  I don't think we need to split up the Super Tuesday primary results like this, so I'm going to merge the three threads.

OK, cool, one thread then.

[wbrocks67]

Biden and Trumps best worst / state?

Trumps worst seems to likely be Virginia. Best - are any of these caucuses?

Biden's will likely be AL or TN with a large black democratic base. Worst may be one of the more liberal or libertarian-minded states, maybe CO.

[ralstonfan65]

Biden and Trumps best worst / state?

Trumps worst seems to likely be Virginia. Best - are any of these caucuses?

Biden's will likely be AL or TN with a large black democratic base. Worst may be one of the more liberal or libertarian-minded states, maybe CO.

I doubt this.

Trump's likely worst state is Vermont given that he did terribly there in 2016 and that the Vermont primary electorate is almost all white. This implies a greater possibility for crossover voting for Haley than in VA where a lot of the potential crossover vote is Black and, as we saw in SC, they won't cross over for Haley.

I suspect VT is Haley's best chance at a win and I would be shocked if she got over 40% in VA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden and Trumps best worst / state?

Trumps worst seems to likely be Virginia. Best - are any of these caucuses?

Biden's will likely be AL or TN with a large black democratic base. Worst may be one of the more liberal or libertarian-minded states, maybe CO.

All are primaries except American Samoa and Utah (R).  From the handy calendar thread pinned on this board:

Mar  5 (Super Tuesday)
      - Alabama primary
      - Alaska primary (R)
      - American Samoa caucus
      - Arkansas primary
      - California primary
      - Colorado primary
      - Iowa primary (D)
      - Maine primary
      - Massachusetts primary
      - Minnesota primary
      - North Carolina primary
      - Oklahoma primary
      - Tennessee primary
      - Texas primary
      - Utah primary (D), caucus (R)
      - Vermont primary
      - Virginia primary

[wbrocks67]

Biden and Trumps best worst / state?

Trumps worst seems to likely be Virginia. Best - are any of these caucuses?

Biden's will likely be AL or TN with a large black democratic base. Worst may be one of the more liberal or libertarian-minded states, maybe CO.

I doubt this.

Trump's likely worst state is Vermont given that he did terribly there in 2016 and that the Vermont primary electorate is almost all white. This implies a greater possibility for crossover voting for Haley than in VA where a lot of the potential crossover vote is Black and, as we saw in SC, they won't cross over for Haley.

I suspect VT is Haley's best chance at a win and I would be shocked if she got over 40% in VA.

Ah you're right, forgot VT was happening. Yeah I think VT will likely be her best, and then VA then. CO could also be pretty meh for Trump too.

[Coconut Decider]

My delegate predictions:

Alabama (50) Open Primary, WTM                            Trump 50 Haley 0
Alaska (29) Closed Primary Proportional                    Trump 20 Haley 9
Arkansas (40) Open Primary, WTM                             Trump 40 Haley 0
California (169) Closed Primary WTA                         Trump 169 Haley 0
Colorado (37) Semi-Open Primary, Proportional          Trump 25 Haley 12
Maine (20) Semi-Open Primary, WTM                        Trump 20 Haley 0
Massachusetts (40) Semi-Open Primary, WTM            Trump 40 Haley 12
Minnesota (39) - Closed Primary, Very Complicated     Trump 26 Haley 13
North Carolina (74) Semi Open Primary, Also Complicated   Trump 56 Haley 18
Oklahoma (43) Closed Primary, WTM                         Trump 43 Haley 0
Tennessee (58) Open Primary, Complicated                Trump 56 Haley 2
Texas (162) Open Primary, WTM                               Trump 156 Haley 6
Utah (40) Closed, WTA                                             Trump 40 Haley 0
Virginia (45) Open, WTM                                          Trump 39 Haley 6
Vermont (17) Open WTA                                             Trump 17 Haley 0 (Haley could win)

Trump 797 Haley 78

Haley likely in the 40-100 range of delegates.

[ralstonfan65]

Biden and Trumps best worst / state?

Trumps worst seems to likely be Virginia. Best - are any of these caucuses?

Biden's will likely be AL or TN with a large black democratic base. Worst may be one of the more liberal or libertarian-minded states, maybe CO.

I doubt this.

Trump's likely worst state is Vermont given that he did terribly there in 2016 and that the Vermont primary electorate is almost all white. This implies a greater possibility for crossover voting for Haley than in VA where a lot of the potential crossover vote is Black and, as we saw in SC, they won't cross over for Haley.

I suspect VT is Haley's best chance at a win and I would be shocked if she got over 40% in VA.

Ah you're right, forgot VT was happening. Yeah I think VT will likely be her best, and then VA then. CO could also be pretty meh for Trump too.

I agree, the whiter the primary electorate overall, the better Haley will do given the possibility for crossovers. I'm torn whether she will do better in VA or CO. I suspect CO given the whiter electorate, though the fact that Democrats cannot vote in the R primary in CO will lower her ceiling substantially. I suspect Trump might be just below 60% in VA and maybe just above in CO, though we will see.

I think MA will also be interesting because of the semi-open primary (64% of MA voters are registered unaffiliated). Remember, Trump did really well because only ~600k were cast in the 2016 R primary while ~1.2M were cast in the D primary. I suspect he will be in the 60s, but wouldn't be surprised for a 50s result for him there.

[Holmes]

I'm volunteering tomorrow. Picking up and dropping off ballots. I'll try to be fast so you guys can get the results from my Bay Area county quickly.

[Compuzled_One]

I'm volunteering tomorrow. Picking up and dropping off ballots. I'll try to be fast so you guys can get the results from my Bay Area county quickly.

Thank you for your service and good luck.

[Joe Biden 2028]

What time polls close

[GeorgiaModerate]

What time polls close

List here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/super-tuesday-polls-open-close-2024/

[emailking]

I'm excited about the Super Tuesday contests tomorrow.

[2016]

I'm excited about the Super Tuesday contests tomorrow.

There are a lot of Congressional Districts that have the make-up of the SC-1 Charleston-based District that Haley won during the SC Primary.

I agree with the General Setiment that at least mathematically the Republican Nomination won't be decided until March 19 when FLORIDA (125 WTA Delegates), OHIO (79 WTA Delegates) and ARIZONA (43 WTA Delegates) will have their say.

[Eraserhead]

Wonder if they will bother doing any exit polling.

[walleye26]

Happy Super Tuesday everyone!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Happy Super Tuesday everyone!

Happy Super Tuesday! Have today and tomorrow off, let's do it!

[emailking]

Happy Super Tuesday! On a normal Super T I get pizza and time it for the most poll closings but this Super T is pretty anticlimatic so I'll just get my usual Tuesday afternoon pizza and watch a movie.

[Minnesota Mike]

Turnout is going to be extremely light tonight especially in states without anything other than the presidential primary. I was voter #4 an hour after the polls opened this morning in my MN precinct.

[2016]

9,000 Republicans have already voted in Fairfax County today, Nikki Haley is going to like this

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1765027085041459649

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I was only voter #43 around 10am. That implies very low turnout although hardly surprising. Probably bad news for the uncommitted campaign.

My brother indicated via texts he intends to "become a RINO" and vote for Haley although the only reason he's even voting at all is to get 2 hours off work for free as his employer (University of Minnesota) is openly promoting that to staff.

[oldtimer]

9,000 Republicans have already voted in Fairfax County today, Nikki Haley is going to like this

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1765027085041459649

Although Haley is going to well in Fairfax, election day turnout is usually Trumpy.

[ann-clayborne]

Mainly interested in the California primaries; there's a state senate election in my hometown that I'm paying close attention to between Jesse Arreguin (Berkeley mayor, backed by developers and Uber) and Kathryn Lyberger (union president). Jovanka Beckles (DSA) and Dan Kalb (some guy from the Oakland city council? I don't really know much about him) are also running. I voted for Beckles, since it's a top-two primary, but I expect Lyberger and Arreguin to win. But there's no polling done, so anything could happen.

Also paying some attention to Prop 1, CA-SEN, and the local Democratic Party Committee races. Prop 1 will probably succeed, but polling has been narrowing fast. Plus, I'd like to see Newsom get a black eye. CA-SEN also seems sewn up by Schiff & Garvey, but you never know with these things. I could be pleasantly surprised. Turnout is dismal, though.

Happy Eday! Making a warm plate of spaghetti aglio e olio to kick things off.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Mainly interested in the California primaries; there's a state senate election in my hometown that I'm paying close attention to between Jesse Arreguin (Berkeley mayor, backed by developers and Uber) and Kathryn Lyberger (union president). Jovanka Beckles (DSA) and Dan Kalb (some guy from the Oakland city council? I don't really know much about him) are also running. I voted for Beckles, since it's a top-two primary, but I expect Lyberger and Arreguin to win. But there's no polling done, so anything could happen.

Also paying some attention to Prop 1, CA-SEN, and the local Democratic Party Committee races. Prop 1 will probably succeed, but polling has been narrowing fast. Plus, I'd like to see Newsom get a black eye. CA-SEN also seems sewn up by Schiff & Garvey, but you never know with these things. I could be pleasantly surprised.

Happy Eday! Making a warm plate of spaghetti aglio e olio to kick things off.

Welcome to the forum!