Democrats & leaners: Which of these hypothetical sets of 2024 Senate results would you rather take?

[TML]

Both of these sets of hypothetical 2024 Senate results would result in the same partisan composition in terms of the numbers of Senators per party (including caucusing Independents), but which one would you prefer more?

Result 1:



Result 2:

[America Needs R'hllor]

It's very close - result 2 on paper would be preferable because it means Texas has flipped. However, Tester and Brown are party loyalists who would go with Biden's full agenda, while in Florida we might have Stephanie Murphy doing a Sinema 2.0. So all in all, result 1 edges.

[SnowLabrador]

Result 2, just because defeating incumbents is more exciting than defending them. That being said, Result 1 is obviously far more realistic.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Dems winning Ohio and Texas

[I'm a prince to the grifters, I turn apostles to pimps]

Just barely prefer option 1 for the sake of keeping Brown and Tester. The appeal of losing Ted Cruz is mighty, but I couldn't care less about Florida.

[Sir Mohamed]

Difficult question. While I was inclided to vote #1 at first, I finally went with #2. That means TX has flipped, which good news and probably better to hold in 2030 than OH and MT.

[TML]

It's very close - result 2 on paper would be preferable because it means Texas has flipped. However, Tester and Brown are party loyalists who would go with Biden's full agenda, while in Florida we might have Stephanie Murphy doing a Sinema 2.0. So all in all, result 1 edges.

Please note that the probable Democratic nominee in FL this year appears to be Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, whereas Stephanie Murphy didn't even file paperwork to run this year.

[bagelman]

1 for OH.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It's very close - result 2 on paper would be preferable because it means Texas has flipped. However, Tester and Brown are party loyalists who would go with Biden's full agenda, while in Florida we might have Stephanie Murphy doing a Sinema 2.0. So all in all, result 1 edges.

Please note that the probable Democratic nominee in FL this year appears to be Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, whereas Stephanie Murphy didn't even file paperwork to run this year.

Oh, that changes everything! I trust Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, so solidly scenario #2.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Result one because we would have those seats for at least six more years, while Texas may be more winnable in the future, which would be a net.