The pre-Super Tuesday contests thread

[ralstonfan65]

https://x.com/camels101/status/1763974254016577721?s=20

If Haley is barely breaking double digits in Clay county, Trump is well on-track to win 90% percent in Missouri. I would expect the same in Idaho.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Missouri caucuses results coming in:

100% Trump so far in Jasper County (19 votes)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/02/us/elections/results-missouri-republican-caucus.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The NYT delegate tracker for Michigan shows Trump at 30 delegates, +18 from the primary on Tuesday, meaning he swept 6 CDs with 3 each.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/republican-primary-delegates-tracker-calendar.html

But the AP/Yahoo says Trump swept 8 of the 13 CDs already, so it should be 36 delegates already.

Trump could get 51, if he sweeps everything. Haley 4, from her primary results.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Idaho results (only after 8pm East):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/02/us/elections/results-idaho-republican-caucus.html

[Compuzled_One]

Is Trump genuinely gonna win more in Missouri's caucus than Biden will?

[Iowa+3]

I'd love to see who did this poll. I doubt it's very easy to poll DC Republicans.

I was surprised as well. Saw it on RCP. The problem for Haley is the forcing effect on later primaries. She hasn't won a state, and as more states vote against her, her percentages dropped.

This is why her only chance was in NH. She lost there, and South Carolina was always going Trump, but if Haley won in NH, then SC was her chance to staunch some of the bleeding. She vastly outspent Trump who read the room, and realized that he was going to win there, and moved on to Super Tuesday and Michigan.

A crushing defeat in MI sweeping all the counties will likely show up in dominant results in MO and ID two very favorable states for Trump.

DC is really, "who the hell knows", and I don't know how much Trump decided to spend there to give people some 'walking around money', just to shut out Haley. If I were Trump, that's where I would be. There, and probably in CA, CO, MA/VT and VA/DC. That's what I would do. The rest of the states are going Trump without a doubt.

[Iowa+3]

If Haley is barely breaking double digits in Clay county, Trump is well on-track to win 90% percent in Missouri. I would expect the same in Idaho.

Clay is what, Trump +4? That's very good news for Trump. If Trump is +60 here, that means he's running something like +64 against Haley on the swing from Biden.

Maybe San Francisco will go Haley then if Trump is +64? He's also gained strength from Michigan, where he was +52.

DC would be H+23, so something like 60 Haley/37 Trump assuming that the electorate is not different in DC. DC is still interesting.

MA will be something like 60/40 Trump, similar to his NH numbers. Same with CA/HA and MD.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1763992837991825655?t=6jYiGozbyprUZU2...

[Iowa+3]

That's very bad news for Haley if she's only clearing the threshold in St. Louis City. That's a D+66 county, similar to San Francisco.

DC for that matter is +87 D county, so we'd expect to see Haley do 21 points better in DC than in St. Louis County. 

Haley needs to clear 30 in St. Louis City in order to be up in DC. If she doesn't get 30 there, then she's unlikely to be up in DC.

Boone is D+12, and she's not even getting 15 there, so that's 35 + 12 = 47 down, about what we would expect from the results in Michigan.

[walleye26]

Will Haley clear 15% in Jackson County or St Louis County? I would imagine those would be the only other places she could.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump continues to sweep the MI convention (=caucus):

With 12 of 13 districts reporting, Trump had won all 12 caucuses with at least 90% of delegate votes in each, and in some cases, 100% of the vote. Under the party's caucus rules, whoever gets a simple majority of the delegate votes wins all three national convention delegates for each district.

36 of the 39 delegates up for distribution today have now been awarded.

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/02/michigan-republican-party-district-caucuses-convention/72808095007/

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Drop out Nikki, it's over.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

From CNN:

Nikki Haley remains in the race, but she’s not competing on the airwaves across the 15 states and one US territory that will be voting in the Super Tuesday primaries next week.

[Eraserhead]

Any links to the results?

[oldtimer]

From CNN:

Nikki Haley remains in the race, but she’s not competing on the airwaves across the 15 states and one US territory that will be voting in the Super Tuesday primaries next week.

That's a good sign she's dropping out soon.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Any links to the results?

I posted NYT links on top.

[Iowa+3]

Trump continues to sweep the MI convention (=caucus):

With 12 of 13 districts reporting, Trump had won all 12 caucuses with at least 90% of delegate votes in each, and in some cases, 100% of the vote. Under the party's caucus rules, whoever gets a simple majority of the delegate votes wins all three national convention delegates for each district.

36 of the 39 delegates up for distribution today have now been awarded.

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/02/michigan-republican-party-district-caucuses-convention/72808095007/

So Trump has all but one of the districts leaving Haley with just what, 3 potential delegates from Michigan? Ouch.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Michigan R convention-caucuses have finished, Trump wins everything:

GRAND RAPIDS — Delegates in the fractured Michigan Republican Party rallied behind a common goal Saturday, voting in overwhelming numbers to make Donald Trump the party’s presidential nominee.

Trump won all 39 delegates at stake in 13 separate congressional district caucus meetings at the Amway Grand Plaza Hotel in Grand Rapids. He was the unanimous choice of four districts and won more than 89% of votes in each of the caucuses.

The sweep follows Trump's big win in Michigan's primary on Tuesday over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, earning him 51 of the state's 55 delegates at the Republican National Convention in July in Milwaukee, where the party selects its presidential nominee.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump continues to sweep the MI convention (=caucus):

With 12 of 13 districts reporting, Trump had won all 12 caucuses with at least 90% of delegate votes in each, and in some cases, 100% of the vote. Under the party's caucus rules, whoever gets a simple majority of the delegate votes wins all three national convention delegates for each district.

36 of the 39 delegates up for distribution today have now been awarded.

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/02/michigan-republican-party-district-caucuses-convention/72808095007/

So Trump has all but one of the districts leaving Haley with just what, 3 potential delegates from Michigan? Ouch.

Haley has won 4 from the primary.

Trump has won 12 from the primary, all 39 today, for 51 in total.

[Iowa+3]

So all but four in Michigan. That's huge. Looking like he won't drop many in Missouri either, maybe Haley will pick up 3 delegates from Missouri.

[Proud Independent]

From CNN:

Nikki Haley remains in the race, but she’s not competing on the airwaves across the 15 states and one US territory that will be voting in the Super Tuesday primaries next week.

That's a good sign she's dropping out soon.

She's either dropping out during Super Tuesday(whenever CA or TX is called) or the next day after.

[Iowa+3]

Well, that won't help her on Super Tuesday if she's decided to withdraw now. We'll see tonight whether she can win DC or not.

If not, I think Trump sweeps Super Tuesday. If we know about it, chances are plenty of the Rs know that  too, especially Trump's team. No point in voting for Haley if everyone knows she's going to withdraw.

Not sad to see her drop out. Should have done so after South Carolina.

[Proud Independent]

Well, that won't help her on Super Tuesday if she's decided to withdraw now. We'll see tonight whether she can win DC or not.

If not, I think Trump sweeps Super Tuesday. If we know about it, chances are plenty of the Rs know that  too, especially Trump's team. No point in voting for Haley if everyone knows she's going to withdraw.

Not sad to see her drop out. Should have done so after South Carolina.

Probably should have happened after NH tbh.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1764025594046468407?t=9qj41PSpbGPKtKg...

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1764025594046468407?t=9qj41PSpbGPKtKg...

It's interesting that Haley is doing nothing in Kansas City.