The pre-Super Tuesday contests thread

[Dwarven Dragon]

Haley may as well stay in as long as she remains mathematically viable, just as Huckabee did in 2008.

This doesn't really change much of anything. If anything the result is a slightly stronger Trump than he was yesterday, which reinforces the forcing effects of the primary.

Her losing in DC meant a Trump sweep. Forestalling a Trump sweep today, buys her to Super Tuesday.

The most likely result at this point is a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday. She is down 8 points in Vermont, her closest state, which brings *justification* to running, because she's going to be competitive in three super Tuesday states.

With respect to the delegate count, it takes Trump winning outright on Super Tuesday off the table, but Trump's nomination at this point is pretty much inevitable.

It puts her in the Kasich class of candidate which at least gets her on the table. We'll know by Tuesday how close Trump is to clinching things, and it gives people a reason to watch.

There aren't even enough delegates allocated for someone to theoretically clinch the nomination by Tuesday. The 1215th delegate is allocated on the 12th, but again, DC took *that* date off the table. This will remain a mathematical race for at least a full 2 weeks following Super Tuesday.

Your silly modeling is very cute, but going into today, we weren't even sure that Haley would cross 40% in DC, and she won by nearly 30 percentage points. *That* is the headline.

Vermont. Utah. Virginia. Alaska. Minnesota. North Carolina. Tennessee. Colorado. OK-5. AL-7. Urban CDs in Texas. All possibilities for Haley to win or at least get delegates....

I think we could have predicted Haley winning by 30. I assumed it would be 70-30. Super highly educated areas have been going by huge margins for Haley and the DC GOP electorate is 90%+ college educated and is also full of people who work in politics and not the general public.

Everything seems obvious in hindsight, but it was extraordinarily easy to doom on Haley heading into today after the previous contests. There is a definite "wow" reaction that comes from this result when the average, non-atlasized american hears of it.

[emailking]

"Birdbrain?"

It's what he's been calling her. It's his nickname for her.

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Birdbrain?"

It's what he's been calling her. It's his nickname for her.

I don't get it...

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

"Birdbrain?"

It's what he's been calling her. It's his nickname for her.

I don't get it...

You are expecting logic and reasoning from Trump when we are nearly 9 years into this travesty?

Unwise.

[emailking]

I guess it means he thinks she's dumb. Not that it's even mildly funny or clever or applicable. 🤷

[Crumpets]

I guess it means he thinks she's dumb. Not that it's even mildly funny or clever or applicable. 🤷

Maybe like British bird=girl->"woman-brained"? That's my best guess at least.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

"Birdbrain?"

It's what he's been calling her. It's his nickname for her.

I don't get it...

You are expecting logic and reasoning from Trump when we are nearly 9 years into this travesty?

Unwise.

yeah but he usually comes up with better pejoratives.

[The Mikado]

"Birdbrain?"

Trump's been calling her Birdbrain for at least half a year and his campaign sent a birdcage to her hotel room as a present back in October to drive the point home.

[oldtimer]

Haley won DC?

That's crazy.

It ends my perfect prediction stream in the Republican primary:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=228

I predicted the correct percentages in every previous contest so far (except maybe not in MO, where no percentages were released).

What does the Haley-win in DC mean for VA?

Probably not much, but I will very likely change my prediction from 70%+ Trump to 60%+ as a consequence.

Haley= Rubio+Kasich-10 has been reliable so far.

Virginia = Rubio+Kasich = 43 -10 = 33

[oldtimer]

Haley may as well stay in as long as she remains mathematically viable, just as Huckabee did in 2008.

This doesn't really change much of anything. If anything the result is a slightly stronger Trump than he was yesterday, which reinforces the forcing effects of the primary.

Her losing in DC meant a Trump sweep. Forestalling a Trump sweep today, buys her to Super Tuesday.

The most likely result at this point is a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday. She is down 8 points in Vermont, her closest state, which brings *justification* to running, because she's going to be competitive in three super Tuesday states.

With respect to the delegate count, it takes Trump winning outright on Super Tuesday off the table, but Trump's nomination at this point is pretty much inevitable.

It puts her in the Kasich class of candidate which at least gets her on the table. We'll know by Tuesday how close Trump is to clinching things, and it gives people a reason to watch.

There aren't even enough delegates allocated for someone to theoretically clinch the nomination by Tuesday. The 1215th delegate is allocated on the 12th, but again, DC took *that* date off the table. This will remain a mathematical race for at least a full 2 weeks following Super Tuesday.

Your silly modeling is very cute, but going into today, we weren't even sure that Haley would cross 40% in DC, and she won by nearly 30 percentage points. *That* is the headline.

Vermont. Utah. Virginia. Alaska. Minnesota. North Carolina. Tennessee. Colorado. OK-5. AL-7. Urban CDs in Texas. All possibilities for Haley to win or at least get delegates....

I think we could have predicted Haley winning by 30. I assumed it would be 70-30. Super highly educated areas have been going by huge margins for Haley and the DC GOP electorate is 90%+ college educated and is also full of people who work in politics and not the general public.

Everything seems obvious in hindsight, but it was extraordinarily easy to doom on Haley heading into today after the previous contests. There is a definite "wow" reaction that comes from this result when the average, non-atlasized american hears of it.

It just reinforces Haley's negatives.

Haley winning DC and and nothing else = Haley a DC insider in the public mind.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Haley may as well stay in as long as she remains mathematically viable, just as Huckabee did in 2008.

This doesn't really change much of anything. If anything the result is a slightly stronger Trump than he was yesterday, which reinforces the forcing effects of the primary.

Her losing in DC meant a Trump sweep. Forestalling a Trump sweep today, buys her to Super Tuesday.

The most likely result at this point is a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday. She is down 8 points in Vermont, her closest state, which brings *justification* to running, because she's going to be competitive in three super Tuesday states.

With respect to the delegate count, it takes Trump winning outright on Super Tuesday off the table, but Trump's nomination at this point is pretty much inevitable.

It puts her in the Kasich class of candidate which at least gets her on the table. We'll know by Tuesday how close Trump is to clinching things, and it gives people a reason to watch.

There aren't even enough delegates allocated for someone to theoretically clinch the nomination by Tuesday. The 1215th delegate is allocated on the 12th, but again, DC took *that* date off the table. This will remain a mathematical race for at least a full 2 weeks following Super Tuesday.

Your silly modeling is very cute, but going into today, we weren't even sure that Haley would cross 40% in DC, and she won by nearly 30 percentage points. *That* is the headline.

Vermont. Utah. Virginia. Alaska. Minnesota. North Carolina. Tennessee. Colorado. OK-5. AL-7. Urban CDs in Texas. All possibilities for Haley to win or at least get delegates....

I think we could have predicted Haley winning by 30. I assumed it would be 70-30. Super highly educated areas have been going by huge margins for Haley and the DC GOP electorate is 90%+ college educated and is also full of people who work in politics and not the general public.

Everything seems obvious in hindsight, but it was extraordinarily easy to doom on Haley heading into today after the previous contests. There is a definite "wow" reaction that comes from this result when the average, non-atlasized american hears of it.

It just reinforces Haley's negatives.

Haley winning DC and and nothing else = Haley a DC insider in the public mind.

Well yes but let's see what happens on Tuesday.

[oldtimer]

Haley may as well stay in as long as she remains mathematically viable, just as Huckabee did in 2008.

This doesn't really change much of anything. If anything the result is a slightly stronger Trump than he was yesterday, which reinforces the forcing effects of the primary.

Her losing in DC meant a Trump sweep. Forestalling a Trump sweep today, buys her to Super Tuesday.

The most likely result at this point is a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday. She is down 8 points in Vermont, her closest state, which brings *justification* to running, because she's going to be competitive in three super Tuesday states.

With respect to the delegate count, it takes Trump winning outright on Super Tuesday off the table, but Trump's nomination at this point is pretty much inevitable.

It puts her in the Kasich class of candidate which at least gets her on the table. We'll know by Tuesday how close Trump is to clinching things, and it gives people a reason to watch.

There aren't even enough delegates allocated for someone to theoretically clinch the nomination by Tuesday. The 1215th delegate is allocated on the 12th, but again, DC took *that* date off the table. This will remain a mathematical race for at least a full 2 weeks following Super Tuesday.

Your silly modeling is very cute, but going into today, we weren't even sure that Haley would cross 40% in DC, and she won by nearly 30 percentage points. *That* is the headline.

Vermont. Utah. Virginia. Alaska. Minnesota. North Carolina. Tennessee. Colorado. OK-5. AL-7. Urban CDs in Texas. All possibilities for Haley to win or at least get delegates....

I think we could have predicted Haley winning by 30. I assumed it would be 70-30. Super highly educated areas have been going by huge margins for Haley and the DC GOP electorate is 90%+ college educated and is also full of people who work in politics and not the general public.

Everything seems obvious in hindsight, but it was extraordinarily easy to doom on Haley heading into today after the previous contests. There is a definite "wow" reaction that comes from this result when the average, non-atlasized american hears of it.

It just reinforces Haley's negatives.

Haley winning DC and and nothing else = Haley a DC insider in the public mind.

Well yes but let's see what happens on Tuesday.

Haley = Rubio + Kasich -10 would probably be a good predictor on Tuesday.

[2016]

There is one more contest before Super Tuesday tomorrow.

North Dakota will holds its Caucuses today and Results should be coming in after 6pm ET

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/04/us/elections/results-north-dakota-republican-caucus.html

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

There is one more contest before Super Tuesday tomorrow.

North Dakota will holds its Caucuses today and Results should be coming in after 6pm ET

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/04/us/elections/results-north-dakota-republican-caucus.html

I hope that the ND GOP figures out how to use counties for their results, unlike the Dems there in 2016.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

There is one more contest before Super Tuesday tomorrow.

North Dakota will holds its Caucuses today and Results should be coming in after 6pm ET

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/04/us/elections/results-north-dakota-republican-caucus.html

I hope that the ND GOP figures out how to use counties for their results, unlike the Dems there in 2016.

Let's hope.

[Woke Frenzy]

May I assume that CNN is going to go without any live news converge of the North Dakota caucus, just like did yesterday?

Will there even be some kind of result map? I don't care if it's a real county map or merely a state legislative district map.

North Dakota will holds its Caucuses today and Results should be coming in after 6pm ET

Id est in ten minutes?

[emailking]

May I assume that CNN is going to go without any live news converge of the North Dakota caucus, just like did yesterday?

Will there even be some kind of result map? I don't care if it's a real county map or merely a state legislative district map.

North Dakota will holds its Caucuses today and Results should be coming in after 6pm ET

Id est in ten minutes?

No about 2 hours from now. There may be some time zone confusion.

[RI]

The ND caucuses started at 6pm ET and run until 9pm ET.

Will there even be some kind of result map? I don't care if it's a real county map or merely a state legislative district map.

There are caucus sites across the state for which we should be getting site-specific results, but they don't appear to be assigned to any specific geography.

[emailking]

I'm looking forward to getting some results, hopefully in the next hour.

[2016]

I'm looking forward to getting some results, hopefully in the next hour.

There is nothing really to look at this contest as Trump will win with over 80 % of the Vote.

[emailking]

Whatever the results show, I'm here for it!

[2016]

Whatever the results show, I'm here for it!

NY Times has listed 13 Caucus Sites in ND. If Haley wants to have any impact in this State she needs to do decently in Bismarck & Fargo. If someone gets over 60 % they get all the Delegates.

[Mexican Wolf]

First results on CNN have Trump at 88.4% to Haley at 10.1%.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Back to the usual script in ND

Donald J. Trump
416 +85.8%85.8%
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
65 +13.4%13.4
No delegates—
David Stuckenberg
3 +0.6%0.6
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
1 +0.2%0.2

[emailking]

With 18% in, Trump is at 85%. That makes it very likely he will beat the 60% threshold to sweep the dels (29).