The pre-Super Tuesday contests thread

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

March 2:

- Michigan caucus (R)
- Idaho caucus (R)
- Missouri caucus (R)

March 3:

- DC primary (R)

March 4:

- North Dakota caucus (R)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm throwing out a few wild guesses:

March 2:

- Michigan caucus (R): 79% Trump, 20% Haley
- Idaho caucus (R): 85% Trump, 14% Haley
- Missouri caucus (R): 82% Trump, 17% Haley

March 3:

- DC primary (R): 80% Trump, 19% Haley

March 4:

- North Dakota caucus (R): 87% Trump, 12% Haley

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Why do you think Trump is going to get 80% in DC? IMO Haley has a great chance of winning there.

[Woke Frenzy]

Does anybody know if there will be live coverage of the GOP contests on CNN?

[Oryxslayer]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the Missouri Caucus isn't actually a vote at all in the traditional sense. It's the most traditional form of the caucus, with multiple tiers and limited participation. The vote this week doesn't pledge any delegates as well:

Participants align themselves with a candidate to determine the number of delegates sent to a congressional district convention in April, then the statewide convention in May. By then, Missouri will have allocated its votes among the 54 delegates sent to the Republican National Convention.

Participants divide themselves into groups by the candidate they support, and undecided participants gather together. Those aligned with a candidate make speeches to convince undecided participants of the candidate they support.

When you arrive, expect to elect leadership in the room who will help administer the caucus.

After the first round of aligning, if a candidate receives less than 15% support in the room, supporters of the candidate are asked to realign with another candidate.

If a candidate receives a majority of support in the caucus room, all of the county’s delegates will support that candidate.

If there is a plurality of support for one candidate but not a majority, caucus participants and leaders elected in the room will have 30 minutes to debate how the delegates will be divided. If debate isn’t concluded within 30 minutes, it is up to the chair of the caucus how that support will be distributed.

I'm not sure how much is even readable from a informal situation - nobody really bothered when Wyoming did a similar thing in 2016 IIRC. Back then of course Cruz had a huge activist machine that controlled any caucus format but under similar rules this time, it's likely everything just goes to Trump under the majority rule.

[Oryxslayer]

Now ignoring the complex Missouri situation the other three contests should be very predictable.

Trump will get everything in North Dakota and Idaho under the majority/supermajority rules. Idaho's Mormon areas though will offer a big tea leave for neighboring Utah. As should be obvious by now, Utah has a lot of loyal Republicans and Republican-aligned Indies who adhere to their Mormon Conservatism while hating Trump. The same is somewhat true in Idaho, though the voter behavior situation is different since the state is not majority Mormon.

Haley should meanwhile take everything by a majority in DC. In general Haley's percentage of the vote has correlated to an extent with specifically Anti-Trump 2016 candidates. And while there is likely going to be some divergences, cause of the small DC GOP electorate, there is no ignoring the fact that 70% of the vote went to Rubio and Kasich - after Super Tuesday exposed their flaws. How much this holds true is going to be a tea leave for (northern) Virginia, and it's Open Primary.

And the Michigan Statewide Convention should indirectly pledge everything to Trump - he did under their normal guidelines win a majority in every district and the convention is that much more Trumpier. The only potential hiccup is that there are still likely to be two of them even with things legally looking bleak for Karamo's rebellion.

[Proud Independent]

I'm throwing out a few wild guesses:

March 2:

- Michigan caucus (R): 79% Trump, 20% Haley
- Idaho caucus (R): 85% Trump, 14% Haley
- Missouri caucus (R): 82% Trump, 17% Haley

March 3:

- DC primary (R): 80% Trump, 19% Haley

March 4:

- North Dakota caucus (R): 87% Trump, 12% Haley

Everything looks solid except I'd probably switch around Trump and Haley in DC. If Haley can't even win DC that'd honestly be pretty pathetic.

[The Mikado]

DC should be Haley's single best contest (and IMO only one she stands a chance to win). Still not sure she actually DOES but it'll at least be close.

[Proud Independent]

DC should be Haley's single best contest (and IMO only one she stands a chance to win). Still not sure she actually DOES but it'll at least be close.

Haley isn't even trying to WIN a Super Tuesday state imho. She's just trying to mitigate the damages in some states(UT,MN,VA,etc) turn a 30-40% loss to a 15-25% loss.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

D.C. is probably Nikki Haley's best (and probably only) chance at an actual win (certainly before Super Tuesday).

[Holmes]

Wait, why a caucus in Michigan when there was just a primary yesterday?

[Woke Frenzy]

Why is the GOP even holding an additional caucus?
I know that the Michigan GOP was aiming to circumvent Gretchen's evil plans to thwart the GOP's primary calendar.
But why are they nevertheless holding the second contest prior to Super Tuesday, even though they set out to avoid bringing the date forward by all means? That is so unnecessary and superfluous that I don't get it.

Are the party members who already cast their ballots on Tuesday still eligible to attend the closed caucus on Saturday?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Why do you think Trump is going to get 80% in DC? IMO Haley has a great chance of winning there.

I don't think Haley will win it, but I saw that DC is in fact a primary, not a caucus, so I change my prediction to 61 Trump, 38 Haley.

[emailking]

Does anybody know if there will be live coverage of the GOP contests on CNN?

I don't know, but until he clinches or Haley drops out I think they will probably keep doing election night type coverage. Maybe not for DC.

[The Mikado]

Why is the GOP even holding an additional caucus?
I know that the Michigan GOP was aiming to circumvent Gretchen's evil plans to thwart the GOP's primary calendar.
But why are they nevertheless holding the second contest prior to Super Tuesday, even though they set out to avoid bringing the date forward by all means? That is so unnecessary and superfluous that I don't get it.

Are the party members who already cast their ballots on Tuesday still eligible to attend the closed caucus on Saturday?

The RNC has a huge delegate penalty that takes away most of the delegates to any contest that goes before March 1st without permission. Michigan GOP calculated that that penalty would cut them down to 16 delegates. So they held their Feb 27th primary to allocate...16 delegates...and are allocating the rest at the caucus on Saturday.

[JMT]

I hope Nikki Haley wins DC, just because it’ll be super boring if Trump wins literally every contest (and winning every contest would provide an ego boost that Trump certainly does not need).

I do think Haley has a good chance of winning DC. But, hard to predict what will happen there.

[wbrocks67]

What will the turnout be for the DC R primary? Like 5,000? lol

[gf20202]

Does anybody know if there will be live coverage of the GOP contests on CNN?

I don't know, but until he clinches or Haley drops out I think they will probably keep doing election night type coverage. Maybe not for DC.

I am sure there will be be coverage but doubt it will be wall to wall. If anything DC may be more likely because it would be in primetime and it's easier to predict when results will come in.

General Timeline

Saturday
Michigan convention starts at 10 am EST
Missouri caucus starts at 11 am EST, final results by 6 PM at the latest but should some numbers should come after a few hours
Idaho caucus starts at 3:30 pm EST, results at least a few hours after the fact

Sunday:
DC primary 7 pm EST, results at 8 or 9 PM EST

Monday:
North Dakota caucus 9 pm EST

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Why do you think Trump is going to get 80% in DC? IMO Haley has a great chance of winning there.

I don't think Haley will win it, but I saw that DC is in fact a primary, not a caucus, so I change my prediction to 61 Trump, 38 Haley.

That is still WAY too high for Trump. The only Republicans who permanently live in DC are super wealthy Biden voting northwest DC elites - perfect for Haley. Then there's some GOP Congressional staffers on Capitol Hill but most won't be voting in DC. Trump would basically need to run the numbers with the very few Black people that vote in the Republican primary. I don't think he gets over 52% at best.

[walleye26]

What will the turnout be for the DC R primary? Like 5,000? lol

In 2016, the turnout was 2,839. Rubio+Kasich got 72%. Is it an open primary or do you have to be a registered Republican?

[Woke Frenzy]

What will the turnout be for the DC R primary? Like 5,000? lol

In 2016, the turnout was 2,839. Rubio+Kasich got 72%. Is it an open primary or do you have to be a registered Republican?

It's a closed primary.

[Iowa+3]

Haley should meanwhile take everything by a majority in DC.

DC Polls have it 75/25 Trump.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Haley should meanwhile take everything by a majority in DC.

DC Polls have it 75/25 Trump.

I'd love to see who did this poll. I doubt it's very easy to poll DC Republicans.

[ralstonfan65]

Looks like Trump is pulling 90%+ in both MO and MI caucuses. Not really surprising given that his supporters are the activist base of the party and many of Haley's voters are independents and Democrats.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump sweeps everything so far in the MI caucuses:

Voting began in all 13 of the congressional districts early Saturday, and Trump swept the first eight congressional districts that posted results — winning all 24 presidential delegates at play.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-gop-expected-unite-behind-050902404.html

Every of the 13 CD will award 3 delegates today, 39 in total.