The allocation is likely a bit wrong as I made this a uniform swing nationally rather than changing the swings for each district, so for example LIVRE gets 6.6% more in all districts than they did in 2022, rather than Lisbon having a 10 point swing to them while rural districts have little movement. It's just easier to calculate making it a national swing.
Socialist Party (PS): 36.8%, 110 seats (-10)Liberal Initiative (IL): 13.2%, 30 seats (+22)Democratic Alliance (AD): 10.5%, 27 seats (-50)Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU): 7.9%, 17 seats (+11)Left Bloc (BE): 7.9%, 15 seats (+10)ENOUGH! (CH!): 7.9%, 14 seats (+2)FREE (L): 7.9%, 13 seats (+12)New Right (ND): 2.6%, 2 seats (+2)Rise Up (E): 2.6%, 2 seats (+2)
All others (PAN, RIR, ADN, etc): 2.6%, 0 seatsMap:
https://yapms.com/app?m=jfm97pj487dfhmtLate-breaking corruption scandals among PSD officials, including one against leader Luis Montenegro, led to the AD's collapse, and the split of the right wing vote among them, IL, CH! and 2 insurgent parties, the New Right, and Rise Up. Rise Up was particularly shocking as the party had been in decline for years, undergoing a rebrand to try and improve their image, while still harboring strong Salazarist nostalgia and further right positions than CH. José Pinto Coelho, chair of the party since 2005, entered parliament along with Orlando Cruz, a candidate who had tried and failed to run for President in 2021.
The CDU's surprising comeback is still difficult to fully understand, as many young leftists already gathered behind LIVRE and the BE's camps. The explanation that some have given is that PS may have lost some more radical voters of all ages to the minor left parties, including CDU, but it likely would not be enough to buoy them enough to get this result. Nonetheless, they drastically improved, as did BE and especially LIVRE.
CH! made extremely limited gains, which is believed to be due to vote splitting between them and E, as early discussion of CH entering government with AD (before AD collapsed in polling) may have driven away far-right anti-establishment voters.
IL made gains with more traditional center-right voters put off by the scandals, leading to them becoming the 2nd largest party, a shocking situation that even Rui Rocha couldn't anticipate.
As far as government formation went, while PS lost their absolute majority, being only 6 seats away meant they only needed one partner. LIVRE was eventually the party that chose to join government, bringing the coalition government to 123 of the 230 seats in parliament.
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