2024 South African general election, 29 May:

[Yelnoc]

And we have a new poll out today as well. This of course included Zuma's party. ANC still under 50% but with a slight bounce compared to that Ipsos poll.

https://www.enca.com/videos/2024-elections-latest-enca-poll-puts-ancs-support-434

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

And we have a new poll out today as well. This of course included Zuma's party. ANC still under 50% but with a slight bounce compared to that Ipsos poll.

https://www.enca.com/videos/2024-elections-latest-enca-poll-puts-ancs-support-434

Is MK a one man show, or are there other well-known people that could basically be figureheads for Zuma?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

And we have a new poll out today as well. This of course included Zuma's party. ANC still under 50% but with a slight bounce compared to that Ipsos poll.

https://www.enca.com/videos/2024-elections-latest-enca-poll-puts-ancs-support-434

Is MK a one man show, or are there other well-known people that could basically be figureheads for Zuma?

Zuma will still appear as the figurehead of the party. His name + picture will still be on the ballot paper next to the MK party line: https://iafrica.com/zumas-ineligibility-to-run-wont-impact-ballot-paper-iec/

So I don't think this'll affect the Zuma loyalists too much.

[parochial boy]

Yeah it’s unlikely that Zuma ever had any intention to actually become an MP anyway, so it’s hardly world changing. It does however let him get to pain himself as the victim of the IEC and ANCs persecution so in some ways could actually help. Zuma after all is only interested in what positions of interest he can leverage for himself post election after all.

On that note, the SRF’s tracker poll seems to indicate the MK party and DA are surging (up to 14% and 27% respectively) at the end of the campaign. Which is a… brave prediction all things considered. Especially when the MK party seems to have virtually zero non-Zulu support it’s hard to work out exactly how that happens.

[Logical]

What are the benchmark results each party is aiming for and how low does the ANC have to go to dump Ramaphosa?

[parochial boy]

What are the benchmark results each party is aiming for and how low does the ANC have to go to dump Ramaphosa?

The ANC want a majority, which they think is doable based on getting 80% or above in the eastern cape, Limpopo and Mpumalanga to compensate the KZN and Gauteng losses. Which, er, yeah. Seemingly they have gained in the last couple of weeks but 90% scores in any province would be back at 2004 levels. The minimum satisfactory score is probably 47% and the possibility of a coalition with minor parties and or the IFP to avoid too much trouble. That might be the minimum for Ramaphosa, assuming Ramaphosa wants to stay beyond 2027 anyway.

The MK party want a two thirds majority or they’ll burn the country down. Or more realistically win in KZN and make it impossible to govern at least locally without them.

The DA want to keep their western cape majority. Unsure of they actually have any ambitions beyond that at this point, although if they don’t do better than 2019 it will raise serious questions. Before Zuma ate into the IFPs vote the DA probably had realistic ambitions in KZN, where they have a stronger line up and personnel, but that seems to be doomed with the MK party on the block.

For the EFF it’s very hard to tell. If they equal 2019’s score that would probably be their best scenario. More realistically it would be for Malema to get into any governing coalition, with Gauteng looking particularly promising, or risk losing relevance long term.

For the minors. The PA have the set objective of forcing the DA to lose their western cape majority. ActionSA and Rise probably looking at the 3% ballpark as a best case scenario. The IFP would have had hopes of winning KZN. Now probably it’s just to beat their 2019 level, the same applies for the FF+, who seem to have lost speed over the course of the campaign.

[parochial boy]

As election day is the day after tomorrow and the campaign is winding up, instead of a load of news, here are a few places that might be interesting to watch results for as they come. Sometimes because they will be competitive or indicative of trends to come, but in other cases just because they are interesting or evocative places in my opinion.

KwaZulu-Natal
Undoubtedly, KwaZulu-Natal is the place to follow, where the results will be the most hotly fought and most unpredictable. The situation needs to introduction anymore, but we will finally see exactly what the MK Party will get, how badly the ANC will fall. But also whether the IFP can turn their pre-MK Party progress into reality, and whether the somewhat more progressive and highly thought of branch of the DA can consolidate their position. More locally though:

North KZN – Centred around the former KwaZulu homeland, this is unsurprisingly the Inkatha Freedom Party’s longstanding heartland. A lot of this is down to the nationalist propaganda (combined with intimidation) that was pushed by the apartheid era authorities, but not just that. In fact, the north of the province noteworthy to the degree to which traditional social structures still exist. To an unusual extent anywhere in South Africa, which means the influence of local chiefs and family structures more directly influence how people vote than elsewhere in the province. Already a stronghold, the IFP have been making big gains in local by-elections in the region since 2021, so the crucial question is to what extent they can confirm this and withstand the onslaught of Zulu nationalism being pushed by the MK party.

South KZN (especially the Natal Midlands) – Alongside Durban, this is the former heartland of ANC in KZN. Never part of a homeland and particularly intensely settled by (British) farmers, the population of the midlands consists particularly heavily of farm employees, both further removed from the KwaZulu propaganda and traditional tribal structures, but also more receptive both the social movements as well as ideas like pan-Africanism that accompanied the liberation movement. This is also a rare region with a noticeable black DA vote, which helped Chris Pappas win in the uMngeni municipality just north of Pietermaritzburg . In this case, the same question applies, how hard do the ANC crash in favour of the ethnic appeals of Zuma’s party, but also of a locally well regarded DA.

Phoenix/Chatsworth -  No mention oof KZN would be complete without mentioning Durban’s two main Indian townships. Both are DA fiefdoms these days, and increasingly so, a testament to the age old tensions between Durban’s Indian and black communities, exemplified during the 2021 riots where vigilante groups in Phoenix reacted particularly violently to the ongoing looting. Never far from a racial controversy, the DA did themselves particularly proud in response to the subsequent tension, putting up posters declaring “ANC calls you racists, the DA calls you heroes” inevitably fuelling tensions and resentment even further. Despite this, the DA are still threatened by the exasperation with perceived neglect compared to how the party treat richer, whiter areas of the municipality. An old story combined with the relative lack of Indian DA councillors. In a rather audacious move (given, you know, their role in fuelling the riots in the first place), the EFF have even been campaigning actively in the former township, with Malema himself declaring that he does not believe Indian South Africans to be racist.

Western Cape
Obviously the key question is to whether the DA retain their majority, what would have seemed beyond doubt a few years ago now being challenged by the rise of a host of minor parties and increasing dissatisfaction among the party’s coloured voters.

Cape Flats – In particular Cape Town’s Coloured townships will be interesting to see how much of a protest vote goes towards the DA’s various challengers. In poorer areas like Mitchells Plain and Manenberg this might go in particular towards the PA (as with the Cape’s rural areas) or the National Coloured Congress (heritors to the anti-migrant movement Gatvol (fed up) Capetonian), while it might head towards the likes of Rise Mzansi in wealthier neighbourhoods like Ottery or Rondebosch East or them, Al-Jama’ah or even the ANC in areas with larger muslim populations like Athlone or the Bo-Kaap, such is the anger towards the DA’s position on the Gaza conflict intense. Also interesting to look out for would be how the DA vote holds up in “gentrifying” coloured areas like Woodstock (whose residents have suffered particularly heavily from evictions to far flung shanty towns) as well as if the ANC are able to hold on to their position in black townships like Khayelitsha or Nyanga where Rise Mzansi have campaigned particularly hard.

Rest of the Cape – In particular it will be interesting to see how the PA (and other parties) fare, having scored big in challenging DA on their West Coast stronghold or in breaking up the ANC/DA duopoly in the more competitive rural areas. Likewise, the EFF could score surprisingly well along the Garden Route, having obtained the endorsement of local protest party, Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (Concerned Local Residents in Afrikaans).
 

Gauteng
Soweto – In particular this will be interesting to follow how the ANC vote is challenged in black urban areas. For instance, will ActionSA be able to repeat their excellent 2021 results? In particular in wealthier parts of the township like Diepkloof and parts of Protea Glen where they even won voting districts at the municipal elections. Likewise, can the EFF improve its younger voting base or will it stagnate? And what will be the impact of the various anti-foreigner parties, as well as the MK Party in areas like Zola that have a larger Zulu population. The same questions also apply to central Joburg, in particular in Braamfontein (around Wits University) that could be closely contested between the ANC, EFF and ASA.

Rich Anglophone areas –  (Sandton and Houghton in North; to a lesser extent Edenvale or Bedfordview in East; as well as new development areas like Waterfall/Midrand to north) OK, not that interesting, the DA are and will remain hegemonic, the question is whether they have any more space to gain, as well as how these areas might compare to the “white working class” areas like Benoni in the East Rand. Somewhat more interesting is the question as to what happens in more Jewish areas like linksfield. Typically, the ANC have survived slightly better here (like 10% locally rather than 2%), although the it remains to be seen if the ICC case will have killed the last remaining elements of the Jewish ANC vote.

Afrikaans areas – Pretoria, the West Rand, Brakpan (the latter of which is, somewhat unpolitically correctly, a byword for white trash) – VF+ looked strong here in 2019/21, although the DA’s move to the right may have brough back some of those voters to the fold.
 

North West
Platinum belt – In particular, Marikana site of the infamous massacre. Like many of the country’s mining areas, but especially this one with this particular history, the Platinum belt is a relative EFF stronghold. Up until recently, the EFF did look like they were progressing further in the district, although this has somewhat stagnated recently. And as memories of the massacre recede, so might some of the party’s structural strength, so this paradoxically could wind up a difficult area for Malema on election night, although it might still not. Noticeably, the ANC have been having a strong run of results across the province over the last 12 or so months, so could do well here.

Pomfret –  This is just a weird place, even if Orania get more coverage, Pomfret is a possibly even more bizarre Apartheid relic. You see, in the 1980s South Africa got involved in the Angolan civil war, and during this conflict, a number of black Angolan soldiers fought for the apartheid regime. Come the end of the war, as the South African forces left, these Angolan soldiers were essentially banished by the MPLA. Meaning they were rather awkwardly admitted into South Africa and given South African nationality by the new democratic regime, who parked them in the utterly remote and cut off village of Pomfret. Cue as a result, a dirt poor Portuguese speaking village parked in the Kalahari desert and possibly the only place in the country where the Democratic Alliance wins among Black South Africans

Northern Cape
The things to look out for here are signs of an EFF surge in Setswana speaking areas areas (around the town of Kuruman in particular) and the potential for smaller parties to break DA/ANC duopoly in coloured areas. Unlike last time round, there won’t be any random EFF vote in Orania, as voters are now required to vote in their local polling stations, so can’t head somewhere else to make a statement.

Eastern Cape
Transkei – The EC could be a good result for the ANC this year, and particularly the former rural homeland of the Transkei. Rural areas with elderly populations are typically the ANC’s stronghold and this is increasingly the case in the Transkei as the mostly Xhosa parties of COPE and the UDM dwindle to irrelevance, even if Bantu Holomisa is still around.

The Karoo – In contrast to other Coloured areas, the DA could perform strongly here as people increasingly desert the ANC

Mpumalanga
South of the province – (especially around the towns of Ermelo and Volksrust) these are areas that are majority Zulu but have never at all been particularly prosperous territory for the IFP. The MK Party have however had some strong results in local by elections in the area raising the potential for the party to get a big score in the province. The town of Ermelo is the centre of a big coal mining region. Once again, mining tends to mean strong for the EFF, and in this case the region is beset by difficult social problems related to issues like pollution as well as illegal mining and theft, that all play into the country’s electricity crisis.

Free State
The Free State has a particularly bad recent past of ANC corruption. Former premier Ace Magashule was actually kicked out of the party such was the level of corruption and has gone on to form his own party, the ACT. Both of these factors mean that the ANC could hurt hard in what is normally a rural – and thus strong – are for them.

Sasolburg (and the rest of Vaal triangle – Vanderbijlpark and Vereeniging north of the Vaal river in Gauteng) – This is a particularly grim area as it is one of the single most polluted places on earth. Not only is it a mining are, but it is also home to Sasol, an old genius idea of the National Party who decided to get around Apartheid era sanctions by refining coal… into oil. Well that is a process that is as disgusting as it sounds and the region that sits on the southern edge of the Gauteng metropolis is now poisoned as well as marginalized and particularly susceptible to land invasions and informal settlements as a result of its peripheral location.

Phuthaditjhaba – (and all of old QwaQwa homeland) the city, largely coterminous with the former homeland is emblematic of the homeland “resettlement” areas/dumping grounds that were created by the Aparthrid government. That is black baSotho people were deported en masse from their previous homes sharecropping or working on what own farmed to what is now a grotesque urban sprawl in an otherwise remote area. A city built from the ground with zero jobs, resources or infrastructure. The former QwaQwa homelans is only 600 sq km but its population increased from 150k to 550k in a span of just 10 years. All of which makes it a particularly poignant example of the crimes of apartheid and resultant social problems, a population of people utterly marginalized by having been removed from all economic opportunities as well as all of their previously existing social and support structures to waste away in poverty and unemployment, and also a reminder of why the Land question is so relevant to the country today. Phuthaditjhaba is usually an ANC heartland but local issues (including the Magashule) led to a local party scoring huge in 2021 municipals, it will be interesting to see if the ANC manages to recover this lost support.

Limpopo
This is another area where the EFF are and could be strong. There is an element of Sepedi ethnic parochialism around Malema, as well as also platinum and coal mining in Sepedi area. However, the EFF did recently lose big in Polokwane, normally their strongest urban area, in a local by election. This was related in a large part to Jossey Buthane, the provincial leader who defected (back) to the ANC, taking a chunk of the electorate with him, but once again, the signs of potential attrition in a stronghold could augure badly for the EFF’s final result.

[Logical]

I have some questions about the new seat allocation system. Are the national and regional ballots completely independent of each other? What is the method used to allocate seats at the regional  level? Does this new electoral system favor larger parties?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Yup, completely independent.

There's a whole formula involved in both provisioning and allocation, but I believe it's computed from Registered Voters: https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202401/50034gen2283.pdf

Seat allocations are as follows:
Eastern Cape: 25
Free State: 11
Gauteng: 48
KwaZulu-Natal: 41  
Limpopo: 19
Mpumalanga: 15
North West: 13
Northern Cape: 5
Western Cape: 23

The jury is still out on who it benefits. At least theoretically it would allow special community and local-interest parties gain national representation in the assembly. (For example, Zulu-focused parties in Kwazulu-Natal, or the Cape Independence Party in the WC). This would, by extension, dilute the influence of the larger parties. But the actual influence on government dynamics would probably be negligible.

[Estrella]

Five years ago.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What's a good place to follow for the results ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For all those who are so interested: South African time is six hours ahead of New York.

[parochial boy]

What's a good place to follow for the results ?

The IEC website is usually as good and easy as anywhere else to find results. Although predictably it is down at the moment:

https://www.elections.org.za/

I'm also hoping that they update their clickable map, that is a really useful source normally, but for the moment it is still showing the municipal results

https://maps.elections.org.za/NPEResultsFinder/

Beyond that https://www.news24.com/ will be doing a projection by province that should come out at 11pm South Africa (and Central European) time. Based on ward results already counted at that time.

All that said however, don't expect much in the way of concrete results before tomorrow afternoon, even later of the metros. Individual voting districts are huge and South Africans are obsessive about going to bed and waking up early, so there won't be much counting to speak of this evening.

[Logical]

Official results page up
https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Some turnout notes from various precincts:

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1795795424571199942

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1795817823576703323

Looks good so far for the DA, although Black turnout often revs up as the day goes on.

[Mike88]

Will we have a good chunk of votes counted tonight, or could it be delayed a bit?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Polls close in just over an hour. (9 PM Local, 3 PM Eastern, Noon Pacific)

[parochial boy]

Will we have a good chunk of votes counted tonight, or could it be delayed a bit?

I dare say it will be extremely slow. Technical problems plus issues with scanners have meant huge queues building up. Likely that polling station in a lot of urban areas won't even close for several hours.

[Logical]

We will be waiting for a while.
https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1795891052726919395

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

We will be waiting for a while.
https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1795891052726919395

Living in the west coast of the US is always nice for elections like this. Granted, at the rate it sounds like, there might not be much until tomorrow morning my time.

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/POWER987News/status/1795910972793667787

[icc]

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1795926995223613445

[Logical]

Catastrophic turnout, much of it inflicted by a once competent agency.

[parochial boy]

Presumably quick to count because of the appalling turnout. Turnout looks like it will be high overall, hence all the delays.

But honestl, the blame here lies at the feet of the parliament not the IEC. It was them who handed out hundred of millions of Rands’ worth of budget cuts, who decided on the completely baffling regional ballot as a solution to the independent candidates issue, and who changed the rules so people could onl vote where the are registered. Adding extra levels of confusion to the cuts (and inevitably creating queues in the latter case of people working shifts are unable to actually go and queue until they have commuted home).

There is a limit to what you could expect from the IEC given the circumstances they were given. At least there has largely been no violence so far.

[Oryxslayer]

Presumably quick to count because of the appalling turnout. Turnout looks like it will be high overall, hence all the delays.

But honestl, the blame here lies at the feet of the parliament not the IEC. It was them who handed out hundred of millions of Rands’ worth of budget cuts, who decided on the completely baffling regional ballot as a solution to the independent candidates issue, and who changed the rules so people could onl vote where the are registered. Adding extra levels of confusion to the cuts (and inevitably creating queues in the latter case of people working shifts are unable to actually go and queue until they have commuted home).

There is a limit to what you could expect from the IEC given the circumstances they were given. At least there has largely been no violence so far.

Agree, especially in a country where you need simplicity to actually get some populations to participate.

And I think if anything can be said from that first polling site, it's that such changes have produced differential turnout to the detriment of the government who implemented said reforms. Cause like everywhere, wealthier and more politically engaged populations than the average don't let themselves get stopped by the artificial barriers which could hamper others. Which is a net benefit to the DA and other White groups.