I´m wondering what the turnout figures for 2008 will be. From 2000 to 2004 the number of votes cast grew from 105.5 Mio. to 122.3 Mio. - an increase of roughly 17 Mio. votes.
With 2008 being an open election and the US population growth at a high level, there will be more eligible voters and thus the number of voters is likely to increase. But will we see another spike of 17 Mio. votes next year to reach the 140 Mio. ?
The second question will be if any candidate, Republican or Democrat, will reach 70 Mio. votes cast next year. I assume there´s no major 3rd party candidate running, otherwise this question is dispensable.
My gut is that this campaign will turn out like 1988 -- very negative with low turnout. The way the GOP can win is to relentlessly attack Hillary. Independents will probably stay home in larger numbers because they are disenchanted with the Democratic and the Republicans. candidates. If the campaign boils down to this: The Democrat wants to raise your taxes, choose to lose in Iraq, socialize Medicine, and do the bidding of the radical left vs. the Republican who supports the Bush agenda, staying in Iraq forever, doing nothing about health care. What will motivate indys to vote?
Poll
