Why I think Joe Biden "easily" wins AZ

[The Mikado]

There is no universe Biden easily wins AZ if he is crashing with latinos. And might I say again, it's one thing to say you are going to vote, and it's another thing to actually find the time drive to the polling station on election day/ev, stand in line and cast your vote. Unless you are really passionate about politics, it's probably not going to happen. So I don't buy that the low propensity hispanics are even Dem leaning at this point

Arizona voters are overwhelmingly vote by mail, so "go to the polls and stand in line" really isn't a factor.

[🥥🌴]

Interested if people think Biden winning AZ while losing NV is a serious possibility. People have laughed at me for suggesting it before but it really feels like those states are moving in opposite directions.

This strikes me as the most "memed trends" Trump map possible. I don't really think it's likely but it'd fit with Biden holding up better with whiter, older, and better educated supporters but losing ground with lower education minority supporters and the Gaza issue.




Anyway, agreed with Arizona Iced Tea that Biden +5 in AZ is excessive and would be a sign of Biden kicking ass nationally in a way that doesn't look likely at the moment. However, OP forgot to mention one thing: AZ is almost definitely going to have an abortion referendum on the ballot AND AZ is a state where such a referendum isn't just symbolic and locking in the status quo (like Nevada's) but actually changing their rules. I think that's definitely worthy discussion on factors that have Dems in AZ having some room on voter turnout.

I have NV as tipping point and exactly this map of what will be right to NV and left of it

[Thunder98]

This thread aged like milk. AZ turned out to be the reddest of the swing states by 5.5% for Trump

[It's Time.]

Biden would have lost AZ by double digits.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lmao this was so bad.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Lmao this was so bad.

It made sense though and I had the same line of thinking for a while. Even when polling started slipping in Arizona in October, I was confused why AZ out of all the swing states was going to be the toughest lift for Harris. I overestimated the McCain Republican impact I think.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lmao this was so bad.

It made sense though and I had the same line of thinking for a while. Even when polling started slipping in Arizona in October, I was confused why AZ out of all the swing states was going to be the toughest lift for Harris. I overestimated the McCain Republican impact I think.

There were some kernels of truth in some of my points, except they were the reasons the state was able to have such a large swing towards Trump - for instance the state's population being so concentrated in Pheonix and Tucson metros is what actually allowed the state as a whole to swing to Trump, since in many states it was the rural areas that had the least aggressive swings right.

Also the Senior thing does appear to be true - but Senior communities appear to be the only parts of Maricopa County that had any meaningful shift left.

I am still a bit surprised at just how well Trump did in AZ though - especially relative to NV which is more non-white, lower college, more-urban, ect. Really curious to get full precinct results for both.

[OriAr]

I suspect it's about the border.
Arizona being a border state means they feel the border crisis in ways other swing states don't and it's the one area where Trump has a completely undeniable advantage over Harris, according to the AP exit polls Trump won those who said immigration was the biggest topic by 81(!) points. It absolutely made a good amount of McCain Rs hold their nose and vote for Trump.
The border, the Latino trends and the voter registration trends made me pretty confident Arizona would be Trump's strongest swing state, I wasn't wrong at all.
Arizona is clearly a lean R state... Fortunately for the Dems they had to face F tier candidates in 2022 and 2024 senate races so the seats are still blue.
Hobbs has a battle on her hands if she wants to get reelected, especially if she doesn't play ball with Trump over the border when he's in office.

[Mr. Smith]

If a D clears 60% in Pima and wins Maricopa, which seems to be the new normal, it’s hard to see the math mathing for any Republican. Ds net 150k+ votes from those counties without the GOP having something to overcome the advantage. The state will probably be perpetually lean D unless the dam breaks and old Republicans rebuke AZ and choose Florida and other retirement destinations instead. Structurally, it’s definitely the state friendliest to Ds going forward, along with GA.

Didn't happen.

[Randy Marsh]

Funny how “educated” libs are so clueless to reality