Why I think Joe Biden "easily" wins AZ

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of all the main swing states, Arizona is the one I'm currently most confident about in going for Joe Biden.

Here are my reasons:

1. The long-term trajectory of the state is bad for the GOP. Pretty self-explanatory - look at Wikipedia of election results for the past 2 decades. This is in large part due to demographic change and rapid growth.

2. It's really underrated how good 2022 results were for Dems. Democrats like Kelly and Hobbs outperformed Biden statewide *despite* low Hispanic turnout in Pheonix and Tucson; Democrats up and down the ballot outran Biden in much of suburban Pheonix and Tucson, areas which have traditionally seen down ballot lag. Democrats came shockingly close to flipping some Trump won state legislative seats in these suburbs. Exit polls also suggest the 2022 electorate was R-favorable, which to me suggests Biden doesn't even need a D-advantaged electorate to win, and the 2024 electorate is likely to be more favorable by nature of 2024 not being a midterm where Hispanic turnout falls off a cliff.

3. Compared to the other swing states, there aren't enough communities for Trump to "offset" further Dem gains. Nearly 75% of Arizona's population lives in Maricopa and Pima counties; even just a 3 point leftwards shift between the 2 counties would require ~12 point rightwards swing in the rest of AZ to offset. Republican's main vote net in Arizona is currently Mohave County where Trump net just over 50k votes, but if Maricopa nets Biden even just 100k there's nowhere to offset that; netting 100k out of Mohave is practically impossible.

4. The state Republican party has a lot of problems currently - pretty self-explanatory

5. AZ is an older state which could matter around the margins - attacks against Biden’s age may be less effective.

My current prediction for AZ is around Biden + 5 and I think Biden carries the state even if Trump gains nationally. Also pretty sure it votes to the left of NV.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think 5 is a bit to steep for the margin. The midterm electorate is more college educated and thus more "McCainite" than what you'll see in Presidential years. That being said, I agree Trump is just a uniquely awful fit for the state, and I'd go as far as saying that Biden needs AZ more than Trump does at this point. If Biden is losing Arizona he's probably lost the election.

[The Mikado]

Interested if people think Biden winning AZ while losing NV is a serious possibility. People have laughed at me for suggesting it before but it really feels like those states are moving in opposite directions.

This strikes me as the most "memed trends" Trump map possible. I don't really think it's likely but it'd fit with Biden holding up better with whiter, older, and better educated supporters but losing ground with lower education minority supporters and the Gaza issue.




Anyway, agreed with Arizona Iced Tea that Biden +5 in AZ is excessive and would be a sign of Biden kicking ass nationally in a way that doesn't look likely at the moment. However, OP forgot to mention one thing: AZ is almost definitely going to have an abortion referendum on the ballot AND AZ is a state where such a referendum isn't just symbolic and locking in the status quo (like Nevada's) but actually changing their rules. I think that's definitely worthy discussion on factors that have Dems in AZ having some room on voter turnout.

[Cyrusman]

I think 5 is a bit to steep for the margin. The midterm electorate is more college educated and thus more "McCainite" than what you'll see in Presidential years. That being said, I agree Trump is just a uniquely awful fit for the state, and I'd go as far as saying that Biden needs AZ more than Trump does at this point. If Biden is losing Arizona he's probably lost the election.

Why do you think he is uniquely so awful? In NV, almost all the population lives in one county, which is more percentage wise than the population of AZ within Maricopa, but no one says he's a poor fit for NV, even though NV is less white. Also, only 33% of AZ has a bachelors degree, which isn't that high.

Is it mainly the McCain bashing that has set in over there?

[Roll Roons]

I think 5 is a bit to steep for the margin. The midterm electorate is more college educated and thus more "McCainite" than what you'll see in Presidential years. That being said, I agree Trump is just a uniquely awful fit for the state, and I'd go as far as saying that Biden needs AZ more than Trump does at this point. If Biden is losing Arizona he's probably lost the election.

Why do you think he is uniquely so awful? In NV, almost all the population lives in one county, which is more percentage wise than the population of AZ within Maricopa, but no one says he's a poor fit for NV, even though NV is less white. Also, only 33% of AZ has a bachelors degree, which isn't that high.

Is it mainly the McCain bashing that has set in over there?

Nevada is only 28% college educated, quite a bit less than Arizona. Consequently, I think Nevada's population is proportionally more working class and Arizona's population is more white collar.

[Cyrusman]

I think 5 is a bit to steep for the margin. The midterm electorate is more college educated and thus more "McCainite" than what you'll see in Presidential years. That being said, I agree Trump is just a uniquely awful fit for the state, and I'd go as far as saying that Biden needs AZ more than Trump does at this point. If Biden is losing Arizona he's probably lost the election.

Why do you think he is uniquely so awful? In NV, almost all the population lives in one county, which is more percentage wise than the population of AZ within Maricopa, but no one says he's a poor fit for NV, even though NV is less white. Also, only 33% of AZ has a bachelors degree, which isn't that high.

Is it mainly the McCain bashing that has set in over there?

Nevada is only 28% college educated, quite a bit less than Arizona. Consequently, I think Nevada's population is proportionally more working class and Arizona's population is more white collar.

Is 5 % really that big of a deal though? NV is also more black than AZ.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Interested if people think Biden winning AZ while losing NV is a serious possibility. People have laughed at me for suggesting it before but it really feels like those states are moving in opposite directions.

This strikes me as the most "memed trends" Trump map possible. I don't really think it's likely but it'd fit with Biden holding up better with whiter, older, and better educated supporters but losing ground with lower education minority supporters and the Gaza issue.




Anyway, agreed with Arizona Iced Tea that Biden +5 in AZ is excessive and would be a sign of Biden kicking ass nationally in a way that doesn't look likely at the moment. However, OP forgot to mention one thing: AZ is almost definitely going to have an abortion referendum on the ballot AND AZ is a state where such a referendum isn't just symbolic and locking in the status quo (like Nevada's) but actually changing their rules. I think that's definitely worthy discussion on factors that have Dems in AZ having some room on voter turnout.

q

NV and MI will easily go  D

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interested if people think Biden winning AZ while losing NV is a serious possibility. People have laughed at me for suggesting it before but it really feels like those states are moving in opposite directions.

This strikes me as the most "memed trends" Trump map possible. I don't really think it's likely but it'd fit with Biden holding up better with whiter, older, and better educated supporters but losing ground with lower education minority supporters and the Gaza issue.




Anyway, agreed with Arizona Iced Tea that Biden +5 in AZ is excessive and would be a sign of Biden kicking ass nationally in a way that doesn't look likely at the moment. However, OP forgot to mention one thing: AZ is almost definitely going to have an abortion referendum on the ballot AND AZ is a state where such a referendum isn't just symbolic and locking in the status quo (like Nevada's) but actually changing their rules. I think that's definitely worthy discussion on factors that have Dems in AZ having some room on voter turnout.

100% agree that AZ could go for Biden as NV goes to Trump. I feel like people naively lump them together because they're regionally simillar when internally they're very different from each other.

Perhaps Biden + 5 is a bit excessive, but I think AZ is demographically the easiest state for Biden to "run away with" like that. In states like PA, I see it being really hard for either side to run away with victory unless it's a massive landslide nationally because of the states demographics.

Also totally forgot about the abortion thing lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think 5 is a bit to steep for the margin. The midterm electorate is more college educated and thus more "McCainite" than what you'll see in Presidential years. That being said, I agree Trump is just a uniquely awful fit for the state, and I'd go as far as saying that Biden needs AZ more than Trump does at this point. If Biden is losing Arizona he's probably lost the election.

Why do you think he is uniquely so awful? In NV, almost all the population lives in one county, which is more percentage wise than the population of AZ within Maricopa, but no one says he's a poor fit for NV, even though NV is less white. Also, only 33% of AZ has a bachelors degree, which isn't that high.

Is it mainly the McCain bashing that has set in over there?

Nevada is only 28% college educated, quite a bit less than Arizona. Consequently, I think Nevada's population is proportionally more working class and Arizona's population is more white collar.

Also AZ's college ed % has been on the rise whereas not really the case in Nevada.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't really care about Nevada, as there are hardly any scenarios where it's 6 EV actually become decisive. One is if Trump wins GA + MI + NV,  or Trump wins AZ + PA + NV, but both of those scenarios seem very unlikely. Basically if Trump wins Wisconsin, Nevada is pretty much useless.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wouldn't say "easily," but I do think his chances at holding it are underrated.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Of all the main swing states, Arizona is the one I'm currently most confident about in going for Joe Biden.

Here are my reasons:

1. The long-term trajectory of the state is bad for the GOP. Pretty self-explanatory - look at Wikipedia of election results for the past 2 decades. This is in large part due to demographic change and rapid growth.

Are the demographics of Arizona really so bad for the GOP? It’s an older state with a lower than average college-ed rate, and mostly white or Hispanic. That looks a lot better for the GOP than Texas or Georgia long-term. I honk Trump is a uniquely bad fit, and the state GOP is a disaster.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

I could see AZ going for Biden while NV goes to Trump. It would be somewhat like GA and FL in 2020.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't voting to right with Rosen

[Roll Roons]

Of all the main swing states, Arizona is the one I'm currently most confident about in going for Joe Biden.

Here are my reasons:

1. The long-term trajectory of the state is bad for the GOP. Pretty self-explanatory - look at Wikipedia of election results for the past 2 decades. This is in large part due to demographic change and rapid growth.

Are the demographics of Arizona really so bad for the GOP? It’s an older state with a lower than average college-ed rate, and mostly white or Hispanic. That looks a lot better for the GOP than Texas or Georgia long-term. I honk Trump is a uniquely bad fit, and the state GOP is a disaster.

It seems like Democrats tend to have better luck in states where the majority of the population lives in a single metro area (CO, GA, IL, NY, WA) than ones where the population is split between multiple (FL, NC, TX), and AZ is decidedly in the first category.

And as you said, the state GOP is a mess and nominated a slate of exceptionally off-putting candidates in 2022. I don't think the state will swing back to Republicans unless they fix that issue, and even then it's not guaranteed.

[MargieCat]

I agree.

If Maricopa County even shifts a little to the left of where it was in 2020, the state pretty much falls off the map for the GOP.

And I find it hard to believe it will shift to the right with Trump as the nominee.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of all the main swing states, Arizona is the one I'm currently most confident about in going for Joe Biden.

Here are my reasons:

1. The long-term trajectory of the state is bad for the GOP. Pretty self-explanatory - look at Wikipedia of election results for the past 2 decades. This is in large part due to demographic change and rapid growth.

Are the demographics of Arizona really so bad for the GOP? It’s an older state with a lower than average college-ed rate, and mostly white or Hispanic. That looks a lot better for the GOP than Texas or Georgia long-term. I honk Trump is a uniquely bad fit, and the state GOP is a disaster.

It seems like Democrats tend to have better luck in states where the majority of the population lives in a single metro area (CO, GA, IL, NY, WA) than ones where the population is split between multiple (FL, NC, TX), and AZ is decidedly in the first category.

And as you said, the state GOP is a mess and nominated a slate of exceptionally off-putting candidates in 2022. I don't think the state will swing back to Republicans unless they fix that issue, and even then it's not guaranteed.

I think this is correlated that a lot of mid-sized cities like Charlotte or Indianapolis aren't that great for Dems because they have decently robust suburbs that make the metro area as a whole swingy, whereas with places like Atlanta and Chicago easily outvote their exurbs at this point because they're so large.

In TX I think that's the fear for the GOP - their biggest vote netters tend to be exurban Dallas and Houston counties enough to keep both metro areas competitive. However, if those exurbs begin to narrow and/or can no longer keep the Dallas and Houston metros competitive, then TX is a huge problem.

Honestly Pheonix is pretty unique because it has quite a lot of Conservative suburbs/exurbs, but AZ as a whole lacks substantial vote-netting rural areas for Republicans, so Pheonix doesn't actually have to outvote it's own suburbs and exurbs by much.

[DS0816]

Of all the main swing states, Arizona is the one I'm currently most confident about in going for Joe Biden.
…

Arizona, I sense, is becoming a bellwether state along with the state which votes like it, Georgia.

I wrote about this, in response to a topic by Atlas forum member GAinDC, here:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=578018.msg9383211#msg9383211 .

A 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President with a likewise Republican pickup of Arizona will include a Republican pickup of Maricopa County. With exception in 1996, ever since Arizona’s first vote in 1912 Maricopa County has carried for all presidential candidates who carried the state.

Maricopa County, I will say, is an inverse of the previous pattern. It used to be that Maricopa County gave Republicans some extra support with its margin vs. statewide outcome. A 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden became the first, specifically for U.S. President, to have extra margin support in that county vs. the state. 2018 Democratic pickup winner for U.S. Senate Kyrsten Sinema also achieved this. So did 2020 Democratic U.S. Senate pickup winner Mark Kelley. (He also achieved this with re-election to a first full term in 2022.) Likewise 2022 Arizona gubernatorial Democratic pickup winner Katie Hobbs.

My sense is that a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President to Donald Trump would come with 31 states—pickups in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada—with a U.S. Popular Vote of R+3. A 2020-to-2024 Republican hold of North Carolina can end up, say, +8 or +9. Pickups of those above-mentioned states can be in the range of +3 to +8.

If Arizona flips Republican to be in the area of +6 or +7, Maricopa County definitely flips. The county is really about +2 points in tilting toward the party which has more advantage there. So, a Republican pickup of +2 statewide is enough. Any statewide margin beyond +2 is more than enough to flip and carry that county to go along with the state of Arizona.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There is no universe Biden easily wins AZ if he is crashing with latinos. And might I say again, it's one thing to say you are going to vote, and it's another thing to actually find the time drive to the polling station on election day/ev, stand in line and cast your vote. Unless you are really passionate about politics, it's probably not going to happen. So I don't buy that the low propensity hispanics are even Dem leaning at this point

[Whale Psychiatrist]

I don't think that's all that out there. It's not inconceivable that Biden will hold AZ and GA while losing the rust belt and the election. And if those trends hold, we're entering a period where elections will be decided entirely by Texas.

[Samof94]

I mean, Phoenix is a more diverse city than Vegas from an economic perspective. The I-17 corridor connects Downtown to many important suburbs.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I just went thru Eday judge class, it's not by polls it's by voters

[Sir Mohamed]

Overall good post by the OP that raises several interesting points. Hard to particulary disagree on most takes, though it leaves out a potential R-swing among Hispanics. AZ isn't FL at all, though data shows there might be a moderate trend towards the GOP among Hispanics. I don't think all demographic trends are automatically only work in Dems' favor.

[Adjective-Statement]

You're missing an important point: the growth of the semiconductor and solar industries.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

If a D clears 60% in Pima and wins Maricopa, which seems to be the new normal, it’s hard to see the math mathing for any Republican. Ds net 150k+ votes from those counties without the GOP having something to overcome the advantage. The state will probably be perpetually lean D unless the dam breaks and old Republicans rebuke AZ and choose Florida and other retirement destinations instead. Structurally, it’s definitely the state friendliest to Ds going forward, along with GA.