Live From the Pentagon

[Colin]

Sec Ford, any word on the type of battleships/battlecruisers the Chinese are constructing?

We know they have one Aircraft Carrier, a redone Varyang class from Russia, and the rest will likely be Russian or Russian based designs of surface warfare ships (Destroyers have come up repeatedly in intelligence reprots.

Are their any ships that could be classified as varients or Chinese production of the Kirov Class Battle Cruiser? These are very lethal ships and if the Chinese are able to deploy a good number of these they could project their naval ability deeper into the Pacific.

Also I'm guessing that the Varyang Class are smaller aircraft carriers and not supercarriers like the Nimitz class. Are these carriers able to carry normal aircraft or can they only be equiped with VTOL aircraft like a Chinese varient of the Yak-38?

[The Duke]

We have no specifics on the suraface warfare vessels.

The Varyag is not equal to our supercarriers.  It is of the Kuznetsov class and carries the naval variant of the Su-27 Flanker. (Now you know why I was so adamant about the F-22N).

[Jake]

China's navy is still a brown water navy, right?
&
Has China begun building their next generation SSBN?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Varyag is in no shape to be used as an opearting aircraft carrier.
All it is a rusting hulk that the PLAN is studying to gain an insight into how to build a carrier of their own like they have done before wuth eth Minsk, the Melbourne, and the Kiev.  Heck, they turned down getting the Clemenceau for free which shows what the Chinese think of French naval expertise!

Even if it were usable, the Kuznetsov class carriers can't launch planes with heavy strike loads, so it primarily serves as a platform for defending agaimst enemey planes by hopefully shooting them down before they can sink the fleet they are a part of.  Combined with the fact that they aren't going to be able to get and sister ships, I can't see the Chinese making an operating carrier out of the hulk.

If the Chinese have finally decided to seriously enter the field of naval aviation after having dabbled for the past few decades, several ships similar to our own Wasp-class LHD's would probably be the most sensible option for them.   That would give them a carrier capability second only to the US, and would be a logical starting place for a program that would let them pull ahead of the UK, France and Russia.   The Chinese saber rattling is interesting, but not particularly worrying to the US.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

China's navy is still a brown water navy, right?
&
Has China begun building their next generation SSBN?

According to what I can find on the web, The first Type 094 SSBN has been launched, but is not expected to be in operational status for several years at the earliest.

[The Duke]

Ernest,

Our intelligence (read: The GM's office) has told us that China has a working Kuznetzov carrier.  Whether this would everactually happen is not my concern, in the scenario, it already has happenned.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Well, the public news reports contain no such information, altho of course the Secretary may well have had briefings from the intelligence services.   But I will stand by what I said, and assert that the PLANS Chinluck is not a major problem for the US.

[Platypus]

Just a note-I don't know terribly much about ships

All I can say is that the fkleet will be focussed on two battleships with some limited missile abilities, and maybe a couple of Chinese/Russian/whatever variants of AEGIS cruisers.

The fleet will be very very moble, however, and whilst officially it is to ensure they control the sea routes into and out of China in the east Asian area, basically their aim is to control all the sea routes in the area and to ramp up their naval fleet in readiness for a possible war with the rogue province-not that that is on the cards at the moment.

John, you might have to determine the ships your enemy has-but remember, they have to be very mobile.

[The Duke]

In response to the Chinese fleet expansion, we are moving the USS Theodore Roosevelt Battle Group out of the Atlantic Fleet and into the Pacific Fleet.  The TR and the six surface warfae ships that accompanied her on her last voyage (as well as the necessary support ships) will be relocated to a permanent home in Pearl Harbor, HI, and will priamrily operate in the Western Pacific AO.

Also relocating are our four best attack sbmarines.  The USS Seawolf and USS Connecticut, both Seawolf class subs, and the USS Virginia, the first of the new Virginia class subs, will be relocated from the Atlantic Fleet base in Groton, Connecticut to our subamrine base in Guam.  They will occupy the space vacated by our much reduced balistic missile submarine fleet.  The tird move will be the move of the third and final Seawolf Class sub, the USS Jimmy Carter, this one from Bangor, ME to Guam, and will be renamed, lest our enemies presume the submarine to be as feckless as its namesake.  The rechristened USS Maine, named for its old homestate, will assume its new post in the Atlantic Fleet in February of 2005.

And the Cartoon Network turns into the news

What?

[12th Doctor]

Just a note-I don't know terribly much about ships

All I can say is that the fkleet will be focussed on two battleships with some limited missile abilities, and maybe a couple of Chinese/Russian/whatever variants of AEGIS cruisers.

The fleet will be very very moble, however, and whilst officially it is to ensure they control the sea routes into and out of China in the east Asian area, basically their aim is to control all the sea routes in the area and to ramp up their naval fleet in readiness for a possible war with the rogue province-not that that is on the cards at the moment.

John, you might have to determine the ships your enemy has-but remember, they have to be very mobile.

Battleships are not very mobile.  That is why Atlasia has decommisioned all of hers.  They make perfect targets.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just a note-I don't know terribly much about ships

All I can say is that the fkleet will be focussed on two battleships with some limited missile abilities, and maybe a couple of Chinese/Russian/whatever variants of AEGIS cruisers.

The fleet will be very very moble, however, and whilst officially it is to ensure they control the sea routes into and out of China in the east Asian area, basically their aim is to control all the sea routes in the area and to ramp up their naval fleet in readiness for a possible war with the rogue province-not that that is on the cards at the moment.

John, you might have to determine the ships your enemy has-but remember, they have to be very mobile.

Battleships are not very mobile.  That is why Atlasia has decommisioned all of hers.  They make perfect targets.

Perhaps China is planning something like the monitor concept the USN toyed with a few years ago which was for a large ship that would carry a large number of SLCM's and SAM's and could partially submerge to reduce its radar signature while it was on station but not actually launching.  However, they aren't particularly fast, so the USN decided that it wasn't worth going ahead with monitors at the moment.

[The Duke]

Preliminary Estimate on the Composition of new Chinese battle fleet

1 Kuznetzov Class Light Aircraft Carrier (The Varyag)
2 "Zheng He" Class Battleships *
5 "Hazhou" (Sovrenmy) Class Destroyers
7 "Manshaan" Class Fast Frigates

Intelligence is still recieving information, but this is our preliminry estimate (If anyone sees a problem with this setup, please say so, so our "intelligence" can fix it).

*-Ships based on preliminary sesigns of the Soviet "Stalingrad" class battleship, which was never built or fully developed.  China has secretly been re-designing and updating the Stalingrad Class and has built the hulls of two ships, the Zheng He and the Ge-Ming (Chinese for Revolution).

[12th Doctor]

Let's cut thrugh the crap.  If our fleets do come into direct confrontation, what can we expect?

[The Duke]

Let's cut thrugh the crap.  If our fleets do come into direct confrontation, what can we expect?

We will sink their ships.  When there fleet comes fully online in 2008, we will have the Virginia Class attack sub roaming the Pacific (which can sink their ships from below), th F-22N flying off the decks of our super carriers (which cna wipe out their fleet's air wing), and (hopefully) a rudimentary NMD deployed which we will gladly share with our allies in South Korea, Japan, and (if the PRC doesn't learn to mind their manners) Taiwan.

They will have the second best fleet in the Pacific.  They'll still be in our shadow.  In my time here, I have incrementally and deliberately put together a multipartisan pro-defense coalition in Congress and have had the good fortune of serving three pro-Defense Presidents and have used their support to ensure that if something like this arose, we would STILL badly overmatch any potential competitor.

And I ain't done building just yet.

[12th Doctor]

Alright, now that we know the outcome of a conflict (if it stays small scale), how can we avoid one all-together.

And, how can we avoid a skirmish from escalating into a full-scale war?

[The Duke]

Our primary reliance is on the concept of deterrence, hence our re-orientation of our Navy to the Pacific.

We won't fire the first shot.  If there's a war, it won't be because of us.

If they're determined to have a war, knowing full well that they'll lose, they're going to do that.

[The Duke]

Afghanistan update:

A few weeks ago, I tod you we had won a victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan, and said I'd have more details as they became available.  My expectation was that the story would appear in the Chronicle and you could all read about it.  When Nile's got sick, that never happenned.

So, I'd like to belatedly point out this "intelligence reprot" from Niles:

Mr. Secretary,

There's mostly good news from the battlefield in Khost.  Casualty figures are tentative, but look inside the range of mission success outlays.

There's a hell of a lot more resistance than anyone expected.  The enemy's track record of standing up and sticking it out is fairly dismal, and we anticipated most of our tactical issues would be in containing a route.  This gave us a little surprise, but nothing catastrophic.

The upside is that despite a tougher fight...it's going to be that much more decisive in the long run.  The enemy must have thought we are truly at our weakest, and the opportunity to add to our woes is now or never.

And we're also glad to say that the battle is focussing international attention.  In a small way, people are looking at this news as "a portend of Atlasia's fate" as one overly dramatic European news service called it.  Anxiety remains high, but this thing playing out will have a timely cathartic effect for our international image.

Dated Nov. 11, 2004.

[12th Doctor]

Our primary reliance is on the concept of deterrence, hence our re-orientation of our Navy to the Pacific.

We won't fire the first shot.  If there's a war, it won't be because of us.

If they're determined to have a war, knowing full well that they'll lose, they're going to do that.

I see your point, Mr. Secretary, but if we take this move, we better have more of a plan that just deterance.  If the Chinese take a move that we misinterpriet and we follow with an action that makes them fell as though they need to fire the first shot, then all this won't matter much.  We need to make sure that we have a clear protocal for this situation, that our Adms. can trust.

[The Duke]

After two and a half months of incessantly pestering two separate GMs, I have finally convinced one of them to let me catch our time line up with the real life one.  In October, I asked Niles to have the Iraq Interim Government to allow me to strike Fallujah and 3 other Sunni Triangle cities.  Today, I can, with the authorization of GM Hugh and basing my outcomes on the actual outcomes of the attacks in Sunni Triangle Cities, report the outcome of the last two months of fighting in Iraq:

Three Sunni Triangle cities (Ramadi, Baquba, and Sammarra) were invaded by coalition forces, led by elements of 1st Marine Division on 15 October, 2004.  US Casualties were light.  We suffered 7 dead, and a few dozen wounded.  The enemy suffered at least 600 dead in three days of fighting.  The number of enemy wounded is not known, and the Coalition now controls the three cities as of 19 October, 2004.

The Marines were quickly relieved by Iraqi police and US Army troops of the 101st Airborne Division.  The Iraqis officially declared all three to be free cities on October 31, 2004.

Ten days later, on 9 November, 1st Marine Division surrounded Fallujah as the key nodes in the city were hit by Coalition airpower.  The Division entered the city on 12 November, 2004.  The city was taken three days later.  75 American soldiers died retaking the city, and 4,000 insurgents died defending it.  By December 10, we were able to declare all four Sunni cities under coalition control, and we saw a nationwide drop in attack on coalition forces of 60% within a week of Fallujah’s fall.

With Al-Sadr dead, the main cities of the Sunni triangle retaken, Ali Sistani on good terms with our nation and its mission, Baghdad quiet, and aid money flowing in, we believe that we will be ready to hold elections on the scheduled date.  These elections will de-legitimize the insurgency politically, as they have been de-legitimized militarily already by our offensive.

Oooh-Rah!

[The Duke]

I'd like to submit for the considertion of the Senate appropriating the funds to expand the US Army by one Division.  A recent poll by Military Times of soldiers shows the men and women in uniform believe what we've all suspected for some time: The Army is too small.  Earlier in my term, we added two Divisions to the force, but I believe we are still short.  I'd like the Senate to take up this matter when the new senate takes office.

[Bono]

I'd like to submit for the considertion of the Senate appropriating the funds to expand the US Army by one Division.  A recent poll by Military Times of soldiers shows the men and women in uniform believe what we've all suspected for some time: The Army is too small.  Earlier in my term, we added two Divisions to the force, but I believe we are still short.  I'd like the Senate to take up this matter when the new senate takes office.

Can't see why not.
By the way, Mr. Secretary, do you have any prediction on when we will be able to start pulling out of Iraq?

[The Duke]

I'd like to submit for the considertion of the Senate appropriating the funds to expand the US Army by one Division.  A recent poll by Military Times of soldiers shows the men and women in uniform believe what we've all suspected for some time: The Army is too small.  Earlier in my term, we added two Divisions to the force, but I believe we are still short.  I'd like the Senate to take up this matter when the new senate takes office.

Can't see why not.
By the way, Mr. Secretary, do you have any prediction on when we will be able to start pulling out of Iraq?

I await word from the GM on the conditions there.  Our goal has been to defeat the insurgency so we can draw down troop levels significantly.  Without an insurgency, there is no need for the massive troop levels we currently have.  Once the Gm lets me know the conditions in Iraq more precisely, we'll be able to adjust our policy accordingly.  Hopefully, there will be a continued fall in the level of violence against both US and Iraqi targets that will accelerate after the election on Jan. 30 and we can begin to see casualties fall and a reduction of troop levels can begin.  We also hope that the inclusion of Kurdish and Shi'a militias and the accelerated training of Iraqi Defense Forces will allow us to draw down troop levels in the near future.

[Gabu]

I'd like to submit for the considertion of the Senate appropriating the funds to expand the US Army by one Division.  A recent poll by Military Times of soldiers shows the men and women in uniform believe what we've all suspected for some time: The Army is too small.  Earlier in my term, we added two Divisions to the force, but I believe we are still short.  I'd like the Senate to take up this matter when the new senate takes office.

How much would that cost?  I'd probably be willing to put that together if it's not way too much.

[Platypus]

A note from the GM:

The Iraqis are far from ready to serve, but attacks on coalition soldiers have quietened. Baghdad and the south are averaging 2 attacks a day, down from over 20, although some of the Kurdish border areas in the north are seeing double figure attacks. There have been no fatalities in the Atlasian army in two weeks, although a Polish soldier was killed two days ago when his armed vehicle was attacked.

The furthest behind of all the plans is the training of the new Iraqi security, polic and army. Atlasia is in a position at the moment that only allows them to train troops or keep the Baghdad peace, and it is urged by the commanders to encourage more foreign nations to send training staff.

[The Duke]

I'd like to submit for the considertion of the Senate appropriating the funds to expand the US Army by one Division.  A recent poll by Military Times of soldiers shows the men and women in uniform believe what we've all suspected for some time: The Army is too small.  Earlier in my term, we added two Divisions to the force, but I believe we are still short.  I'd like the Senate to take up this matter when the new senate takes office.

How much would that cost?  I'd probably be willing to put that together if it's not way too much.

About $8-$10 billion to start the thing from scratch.  It can be operational in two years (Two months in our time).

A note from the GM:

The Iraqis are far from ready to serve, but attacks on coalition soldiers have quietened. Baghdad and the south are averaging 2 attacks a day, down from over 20, although some of the Kurdish border areas in the north are seeing double figure attacks. There have been no fatalities in the Atlasian army in two weeks, although a Polish soldier was killed two days ago when his armed vehicle was attacked.

The furthest behind of all the plans is the training of the new Iraqi security, polic and army. Atlasia is in a position at the moment that only allows them to train troops or keep the Baghdad peace, and it is urged by the commanders to encourage more foreign nations to send training staff.

That's wonderful news.  We'll just keep training these Iraqis as best we can.