Final Proof That Trump’s Appeal Was Never About the Economy

[Beet]

The American economy keeps performing better and better. Oddly, so too does Donald Trump’s polling. It is historically difficult to find a period of time in which an incumbent president, absent a major scandal or failed war, has suffered such miserable public approval in the face of widespread prosperity.

Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at University of Massachusetts Amherst, recently detailed how the recovery has produced real wage growth. After inflation and the clawback of COVID-era fiscal support hurt pocketbooks through the first two years of Biden’s term, inflation-adjusted wages are now growing faster than the pre-pandemic trend.

This has not only failed to dent Trump’s standing, it’s coincided with an increase. Over the last year, a period when the economy has surged, the former president has gone from tied with Biden to two points ahead. It is understandable that public sentiment would lag behind economic conditions. But the news narrative about the economy has turned sharply positive in recent months, and feelings about the economy have turned north as well. Even so, Biden’s polling continues to worsen.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-biden-economy-why-working-class-votes-trump-republican.html

[Frodo]

It was always about the Great Replacement Theory, and its adherents fearing the loss of an America of their youth, with an overwhelmingly white, Christian majority where most people dutifully went to church on Sundays, and a culture that reflected that.  

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The American economy keeps performing better and better. Oddly, so too does Donald Trump’s polling. It is historically difficult to find a period of time in which an incumbent president, absent a major scandal or failed war, has suffered such miserable public approval in the face of widespread prosperity.

Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at University of Massachusetts Amherst, recently detailed how the recovery has produced real wage growth. After inflation and the clawback of COVID-era fiscal support hurt pocketbooks through the first two years of Biden’s term, inflation-adjusted wages are now growing faster than the pre-pandemic trend.

This has not only failed to dent Trump’s standing, it’s coincided with an increase. Over the last year, a period when the economy has surged, the former president has gone from tied with Biden to two points ahead. It is understandable that public sentiment would lag behind economic conditions. But the news narrative about the economy has turned sharply positive in recent months, and feelings about the economy have turned north as well. Even so, Biden’s polling continues to worsen.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-biden-economy-why-working-class-votes-trump-republican.html

Real hourly wages are up like 1% in the last year (up by 4.5% nominally versus CPI up 3.4%), not 5% as the chart seems to imply, and that is with fewer hours worked per week. And this is entirely wiped out by higher interest rates (which don't factor into CPI).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are still in a Pandemic , according to both Trump and Biden the vaccines were supposed to bring us out of COVID. It brought us out of lockdown but not ending COVID. Trump isn't gonna do anything for us but pass more tax cuts

[jojoju1998]

It was always about the Great Replacement Theory, and its adherents fearing the loss of an America of their youth, with an overwhelmingly white, Christian majority where most people dutifully went to church on Sundays, and a culture that reflected that.  

Trump Voters are less likely to attend church.

"Christian nationalism is thought to have been an important factor in the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2016—and likely drove many of his supporters to the polls in 2020. Now, new research shows Christian nationalist support of Trump isn’t tied to religious institutions or attending church on a regular basis. Instead, it’s tied to not attending church.
 
Regardless of political or personal background, voters who hold strong Christian nationalist values voted for Trump at high levels if they didn’t go to church, according to 2017 survey data analyzed by Samuel Stroope and Heather Rackin, associate professors of sociology in the LSU College of Humanities & Social Sciences, with co-authors Paul Froese of Baylor University and Jack Delehanty of Clark University. The researchers define Christian nationalism as a set of beliefs about how Christianity should be prioritized in public life, in laws, and in America’s national identity. In a forthcoming paper in Sociological Forum, titled “Unchurched Christian Nationalism and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election,” they call for nuance in explaining the so-called “religious vote” for Trump:
 
“The 2016 election may not be a straightforward story of religious communities coalescing around the Christian nationalist candidate (…) Christian nationalism operates differently for those inside and outside of religious institutions [and] religion’s most dynamic effects on U.S. politics may have less to do with what happens inside churches than with how people—whether they are individually religious or not—use religious ideas to draw and impose boundaries around national identity.”

https://www.lsu.edu/research/news/2020/1109-unchurched.php

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The economy was doing decent in 2016 as well and that didn't hurt Trump either. The thing with the economy is it's about selling a vision to the American people. Americans love 2019 and want to go back to it. While Biden's economy is slowly recovering, Biden never made the economy a big issue in 2020, so he has essentially forfeited that issue to Trump. Obama was elected in 2008 primarily because of the economy so even though it was lackluster in 2012 he was able to still capitalize off of it. Voters don't associate Biden with the economy, or change, or anything of that scale. All they see him as is an old boring white guy, because that's all he campaigned on in 2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The economy was doing decent in 2016 as well and that didn't hurt Trump either. The thing with the economy is it's about selling a vision to the American people. Americans love 2019 and want to go back to it. While Biden's economy is slowly recovering, Biden never made the economy a big issue in 2020, so he has essentially forfeited that issue to Trump. Obama was elected in 2008 primarily because of the economy so even though it was lackluster in 2012 he was able to still capitalize off of it. Voters don't associate Biden with the economy, or change, or anything of that scale. All they see him as is an old boring white guy, because that's all he campaigned on in 2020.

The economy is improving in the same way that it improved from 2006 to 2007.

[Beet]

The American economy keeps performing better and better. Oddly, so too does Donald Trump’s polling. It is historically difficult to find a period of time in which an incumbent president, absent a major scandal or failed war, has suffered such miserable public approval in the face of widespread prosperity.

Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at University of Massachusetts Amherst, recently detailed how the recovery has produced real wage growth. After inflation and the clawback of COVID-era fiscal support hurt pocketbooks through the first two years of Biden’s term, inflation-adjusted wages are now growing faster than the pre-pandemic trend.

This has not only failed to dent Trump’s standing, it’s coincided with an increase. Over the last year, a period when the economy has surged, the former president has gone from tied with Biden to two points ahead. It is understandable that public sentiment would lag behind economic conditions. But the news narrative about the economy has turned sharply positive in recent months, and feelings about the economy have turned north as well. Even so, Biden’s polling continues to worsen.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-biden-economy-why-working-class-votes-trump-republican.html

Real hourly wages are up like 1% in the last year (up by 4.5% nominally versus CPI up 3.4%), not 5% as the chart seems to imply, and that is with fewer hours worked per week. And this is entirely wiped out by higher interest rates (which don't factor into CPI).

It's turned the corner. It just needs more time.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

In any case, the economy is clearly not in a recession or a crisis. There are wars abroad, but America is not at war. Our boys are not coming home in a steady stream of body bags. The streets are not filled with rioters. The president is not, apart from some gaffes of a type his opponent also makes, not in any sort of major scandal.

Yet he is trailing to a guy facing 91 indictments. He is trailing more than Obama, Bush Jr., or Reagan were trailing at this point in their first terms. Even leaving the indictments aside, this is rather unprecedented. George H.W. Bush lost reelection b/c the economy went into recession during his term and unemployment was 7.7% in July 1992. Jimmy Carter had a recession in 1980 and 15% (!) inflation, not to mention the hostage crisis. Herbert Hoover had the Great Depression. That's about it for presidents who lost re-election. Based on macro-economics and the political situation, there is no reason to think a president would lose re-election.

[jaichind]

The big difference between now and 2017-2020 is real interest rates.  The much higher cost of finance has a big impact on people looking to buy a house as well as those who rely on credit.  That real wages might be higher again than in 2021-2022 does not matter if real interest rates adjust cost of living for those that rely on credit have surged and stayed that way.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The American economy keeps performing better and better. Oddly, so too does Donald Trump’s polling. It is historically difficult to find a period of time in which an incumbent president, absent a major scandal or failed war, has suffered such miserable public approval in the face of widespread prosperity.

Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at University of Massachusetts Amherst, recently detailed how the recovery has produced real wage growth. After inflation and the clawback of COVID-era fiscal support hurt pocketbooks through the first two years of Biden’s term, inflation-adjusted wages are now growing faster than the pre-pandemic trend.

This has not only failed to dent Trump’s standing, it’s coincided with an increase. Over the last year, a period when the economy has surged, the former president has gone from tied with Biden to two points ahead. It is understandable that public sentiment would lag behind economic conditions. But the news narrative about the economy has turned sharply positive in recent months, and feelings about the economy have turned north as well. Even so, Biden’s polling continues to worsen.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-biden-economy-why-working-class-votes-trump-republican.html

Real hourly wages are up like 1% in the last year (up by 4.5% nominally versus CPI up 3.4%), not 5% as the chart seems to imply, and that is with fewer hours worked per week. And this is entirely wiped out by higher interest rates (which don't factor into CPI).

It's turned the corner. It just needs more time.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

In any case, the economy is clearly not in a recession or a crisis. There are wars abroad, but America is not at war. Our boys are not coming home in a steady stream of body bags. The streets are not filled with rioters. The president is not, apart from some gaffes of a type his opponent also makes, not in any sort of major scandal.

Yet he is trailing to a guy facing 91 indictments. He is trailing more than Obama, Bush Jr., or Reagan were trailing at this point in their first terms. Even leaving the indictments aside, this is rather unprecedented. George H.W. Bush lost reelection b/c the economy went into recession during his term and unemployment was 7.7% in July 1992. Jimmy Carter had a recession in 1980 and 15% (!) inflation, not to mention the hostage crisis. Herbert Hoover had the Great Depression. That's about it for presidents who lost re-election. Based on macro-economics and the political situation, there is no reason to think a president would lose re-election.

Real weekly earnings went from 362 pre-pandemic to 371 now, which is only about a 2.5% gain in 4 years. That is probably more than offset by higher interest and credit card payments. Remember that people buy a lot of things on credit, so inflation doesn't capture the full story of what people are actually paying. House purchases are still the lowest in 30 years and completely unaffordable. Banks are on the brink of failure.

The interest rate hikes and inverted yield curve need more time to break something (as it always does) and cause a recession. Commercial real estate seems to be the problem at the moment, with more regional banks about to fail.

We are also down nearly 2 million full-time jobs since June.

[GAinDC]

The economy is good.

But even if it wasn’t, a temporary downturn is better than a lifetime under right wing autocracy.

Easy choice for me!

[7,052,770]

It was always about the Great Replacement Theory, and its adherents fearing the loss of an America of their youth, with an overwhelmingly white, Christian majority where most people dutifully went to church on Sundays, and a culture that reflected that.  

We're all nostalgic for the way we perceived the world when we were growing up, but sadly (or not) that will never come back for anyone and for most of us never really existed in the first place.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The economy is good.

But even if it wasn’t, a temporary downturn is better than a lifetime under right wing autocracy.

Easy choice for me!

It isn't a temporary downturn; the financial system is under severe stress from the interest rate hikes.

[Spectator]

The economy is good.

But even if it wasn’t, a temporary downturn is better than a lifetime under right wing autocracy.

Easy choice for me!

A second Trump term is not nearly that drastic. Democrats hold the Governorship and SOS of every notable swing state with the exception of Georgia, where the Republicans in those offices famously made a brand for themselves standing up to Trump. Tell me again how exactly Trump is going to destroy democracy unilaterally when he couldn’t get anything done in his first term anyway?

[jojoju1998]

The economy is good.

But even if it wasn’t, a temporary downturn is better than a lifetime under right wing autocracy.

Easy choice for me!

A second Trump term is not nearly that drastic. Democrats hold the Governorship and SOS of every notable swing state with the exception of Georgia, where the Republicans in those offices famously made a brand for themselves standing up to Trump. Tell me again how exactly Trump is going to destroy democracy unilaterally when he couldn’t get anything done in his first term anyway?

Actually, it might be America's saving grace that Trump is THAT dumb. The guy is no FDR, or even Reagan. He doesn't know how to use the levers of power.

[DaleCooper]

Yes, this was always about social issues. The left was too stupid to see this and kept race-baiting and agitating throughout the 2010s, and now we're in this situation.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Democrats should propose funding mexican border security on Guatemala. It would hurt with voters with Central America ancestry, but it could help to change the discourse on the issue a bit.
Biden will probably pass the Senate border bill if it enters his desk. That would only help in the short term, but a well done rethoric on the issue could help with some moderates.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

His appeal has always been about populism and nativism

[ProgressiveModerate]

It was always about the Great Replacement Theory, and its adherents fearing the loss of an America of their youth, with an overwhelmingly white, Christian majority where most people dutifully went to church on Sundays, and a culture that reflected that.  

Honestly I think a lot of it is fearing a loss of America that never existed. People romanticize the past way too much. Would love to see these folks teleported back to the 60s and see if life is really better.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Americans love 2019 and want to go back to it.

But they can’t because the previous President f—ked up so badly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It was always about the Great Replacement Theory, and its adherents fearing the loss of an America of their youth, with an overwhelmingly white, Christian majority where most people dutifully went to church on Sundays, and a culture that reflected that.  

Trump Voters are less likely to attend church.

"Christian nationalism is thought to have been an important factor in the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2016—and likely drove many of his supporters to the polls in 2020. Now, new research shows Christian nationalist support of Trump isn’t tied to religious institutions or attending church on a regular basis. Instead, it’s tied to not attending church.
 
Regardless of political or personal background, voters who hold strong Christian nationalist values voted for Trump at high levels if they didn’t go to church, according to 2017 survey data analyzed by Samuel Stroope and Heather Rackin, associate professors of sociology in the LSU College of Humanities & Social Sciences, with co-authors Paul Froese of Baylor University and Jack Delehanty of Clark University. The researchers define Christian nationalism as a set of beliefs about how Christianity should be prioritized in public life, in laws, and in America’s national identity. In a forthcoming paper in Sociological Forum, titled “Unchurched Christian Nationalism and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election,” they call for nuance in explaining the so-called “religious vote” for Trump:
 
“The 2016 election may not be a straightforward story of religious communities coalescing around the Christian nationalist candidate (…) Christian nationalism operates differently for those inside and outside of religious institutions [and] religion’s most dynamic effects on U.S. politics may have less to do with what happens inside churches than with how people—whether they are individually religious or not—use religious ideas to draw and impose boundaries around national identity.”

https://www.lsu.edu/research/news/2020/1109-unchurched.php

I wonder if this might have weird political implications where people who are more traditionally religious in the sense of attending church and being part of a community, as well as certain hyper religious communities like Mormons becomes communities Democrats actually try to invest in.

I've always felt like Trump's base were people who labeled themselves as religious or highly religious but with their "religion" being highly amendable so that they can basically amend their values to justifying anything they want. Trump has a lot of contradictions and instead of calling those out, we see his supporters twist their "religion" in knots to justify it.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Incorrect OP. The appeal was and still was about the economy. Not in the absolute sense, but about straight, white, blue-collar men no longer having the ability to make wages commensurate with single-earner household ownership.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Incorrect OP. The appeal was and still was about the economy. Not in the absolute sense, but about straight, white, blue-collar men no longer having the ability to make wages commensurate with single-earner household ownership.

We need a big asset crash for this to happen.

[jaichind]

The big difference between now and 2017-2020 is real interest rates.  The much higher cost of finance has a big impact on people looking to buy a house as well as those who rely on credit.  That real wages might be higher again than in 2021-2022 does not matter if real interest rates adjust cost of living for those that rely on credit have surged and stayed that way.

Credit card debt at record,  credit card and auto loans delinquency rate at highest since Great Recession

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The big difference between now and 2017-2020 is real interest rates.  The much higher cost of finance has a big impact on people looking to buy a house as well as those who rely on credit.  That real wages might be higher again than in 2021-2022 does not matter if real interest rates adjust cost of living for those that rely on credit have surged and stayed that way.

Credit card debt at record,  credit card and auto loans delinquency rate at highest since Great Recession

You know we are still in a COVID Environment, nothing can fix that