No Watergate and how future elections play out

[CPT MikeyMike]

What-if Watergate doesn’t occur. Simply Richard Nixon and his administration simply didn’t break into the Watergate. Here’s the alternate history.

To begin a few notes about 1972 and early 1973.

1. The 1972 Presidential and Congressional Elections have no change. Nixon wins by one of the largest landslides in American History. Spiro Agnew is re-elected Vice President. The 93rd Congress will have 56-42-2 margin, in favor of the Democrats, in the Senate and the Democrats control the House with a 242-192-1 advantage.

2. Nixon and Henry Kissinger reach a peace record with North Vietnam on 23 January 1973.

Here’s the story….

The spring and summer of 1973 play out generally as is except for Watergate. Nixon does keep John Ehrlichman and H.R Halderman on his staff and remain there throughout his administration. By August 1973, Nixon’s approval rating is at 54%. Those polled gave Nixon high ratings in foreign policy especially with the SALT Treaty with the Soviet Union and the cease fire in Vietnam. Nixon did score below 45% approval in domestic policy, especially with the economy as inflation continues the plague the nation.

Nixon is plagued in the fall of ‘73 by a couple of issues.

1. Vietnam and The War Powers Act. By September 1973, President Nixon realizes that South Vietnam’s government is not effective and is asking the United States for increased aid.  Nixon is more than willing to give assistance to South Vietnam. In September, Nixon announces that he will step up aid in South Vietnam. This in turn, triggers Congress to pass the War Powers Resolution, Nixon vetoes it immediately, and Nixon is successful in getting enough support by Republican and southern Democrats in congress to prevent the veto for being overridden. Nixon authorizes a 2,500 military advisor team to Saigon. 

2. Spiro Agnew.  As it actually happened, Spiro Agnew resigns on 10 October 1973 after he pleads no contest to charges of income tax evasion on $29,500 he received in 1967.  With a decent approval rating, Nixon nominates his top choice for the Vice Presidency; former Treasury Secretary and former Governor of Texas, John Connally.  The pick is criticized by some liberal Democrats who see Connally as a traitor after switching parties in 1972.  The hearings for Connally were brutal from Democrats like Ted Kennedy, Henry Jackson and  Robert Byrd.  A filibuster is further attempted by Thomas Eagleton and Walter Mondale however the filibuster is overridden by a 64-36 vote and on 07 January 1974, Connally wins approval from the Senate by a 56-44 vote and a week later wins approval by a  271-164 vote in the House.

One last note to 1973: The Yom Kipper War happens as is actually did - no change to that and of course the 1973 Energy Crisis, which was triggered from the Yom Kipper War happens as it as well.

The end of 1973 give President Nixon somewhat of a beating.  His approval rating on New Years Eve stands at 49%. 55% of Americans disapprove of Nixon sending military advisors back to Vietnam and are further discouraged by the energy crisis.  After Connally is confirmed by congress, a Gallup Poll gives Connally a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination (leads Nelson Rockefeller by a 56%-26% margin) and a slight lead over Hubert Humphrey (35%-33%) and Ted Kennedy (37%-34%) in a presidential match-up.

1974 is plagued mainly by domestic issues such as inflation. Nixon, like Jerry Ford actually did, devised a campaign called WIN (Whip Inflation Now) which did little to control the situation. In August, Nixon attempts to place another 90 day price freeze which further compounds the problem.  Nixon is able to temporally smooth the energy crisis by lowering the national speed limit to 55MPH.

By the fall of 1974, Nixon’s approval rating stands at 44%. Mainly based off of soaring inflation rates.  Democrats are positioned to make huge gains in the mid-term elections and all appears that way until the week before the election when President Nixon collapses while campaigning for congressional candidates in San Diego.  Nixon’s phlebitis, which he was suffering from since June, formed a blood clot in his lungs and needed emergency surgery in order to save his life.  With the news turning away from the campaign and turning into Nixon’s illness, the Democrats hopes for making gains in congress looked less promising.  Vice President Connally, campaigning in 15 states in the last 7 days used the rally theme “Let’s win this one for the President.”  The response turned out to help the Republicans on election night. 

1974 mid-term election: Republican, who looked like they would lose 25-30 seats, only lose 6 seats in the House.  In the Senate, the Democrats, who hoped to gain 6-8 seats, do not gain a seat.

The 94th Congress looks as follows:

House:
Democrats: 249
Republicans: 186

Senate:
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 42
Other: 2

Some notes to present day. Patrick Leahy and John Murtha, who won in 1974, lose their initial election.  Also, Democrats lose in the Senate, Birch Bayh and George McGovern to defeat.

Next - Nixon and South Vietnam (Does he save it?) and the race for 1976 heats up.

What do you guys think so far?

[Wakie]

No Watergate also means no Halloween Massacre which means no HW Bush as CIA head.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Absolutely correct. Some of those key players will play out in this story at some point - stay tuned!

[AndrewTX]

I'm liking it.

[TommyC1776]

yeah this it is great. cool.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1976 Ronald Reagan defeats Mo Udall
1980 Ted Kennedy defeats Ronald Reagan
1984 Ted Kennedy defeats George Bush
1988 Lowell Weicker defeats Micheal Dukakis
1992 Lowell Weicker defeats Bill Clinton

[Wakie]

My prediction would be ...

1976 Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter
1980 Ronald Reagan defeats Ted Kennedy
1984 Gary Hart defeats Richard Schweiker
1988 Gary Hart defeats Bob Dole
1992 Lloyd Bentsen defeats Lamar Alexander
1996 Lloyd Bentsen defeats Pat Buchanan
2000 John McCain defeats John Glenn
2004 John McCain defeat Howard Dean

[True Democrat]

My prediction would be ...

1976 Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter
1980 Ronald Reagan defeats Ted Kennedy
1984 Gary Hart defeats Richard Schweiker
1988 Gary Hart defeats Bob Dole
1992 Lloyd Bentsen defeats Lamar Alexander
1996 Lloyd Bentsen defeats Pat Buchanan
2000 John McCain defeats John Glenn
2004 John McCain defeat Howard Dean

It's unlikely fro every president to get reelected for 36 years (including Nixon).

[CPT MikeyMike]

1976 Ronald Reagan defeats Mo Udall
1980 Ted Kennedy defeats Ronald Reagan
1984 Ted Kennedy defeats George Bush
1988 Lowell Weicker defeats Micheal Dukakis
1992 Lowell Weicker defeats Bill Clinton

My prediction would be ...

1976 Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter
1980 Ronald Reagan defeats Ted Kennedy
1984 Gary Hart defeats Richard Schweiker
1988 Gary Hart defeats Bob Dole
1992 Lloyd Bentsen defeats Lamar Alexander
1996 Lloyd Bentsen defeats Pat Buchanan
2000 John McCain defeats John Glenn
2004 John McCain defeat Howard Dean

I'll let you folks know my timeline runs through 2008. I have already selected the candidates for each election. I just need to plug in the story. Jfrern had one Democrat candidate correct. Wakie has one Democrat and one Republican correct. Which one? You'll find out.

I was feeling a little under the weather last night and tonight, I need to do some yard work so it might be another day before I do an update - probably up to the 1976 election.

[CPT MikeyMike]

President Nixon recovers quickly from the phlebitis and in his State of the Union pledges to “make 1975 a year where we can achieve a permanent peace.” Clearly Nixon is referring to Vietnam. Nixon is desperate to see an end to issues with South Vietnam. In March 1975, Nixon engages China, Soviet Union, North Vietnam and South Vietnam to a D.C. summit.  In the end, China and the Soviet Union will honor and recognize the government of South Vietnam and promises to withdraw aid from North Vietnam if there is further military escalation.  Many see Secretary of State Henry Kissinger as the man being able to convince China and the USSR to agree to this deal. Nixon also sends an Army Corps to South Vietnam in order to maintain the cease fire in South Vietnam. No peace treaty ever comes about however, it brings more stability to South Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the economy remains somewhat sluggish however Nixon’s ability to broker a deal with the Soviet Union and China keeps Nixon’s approval numbers above 50% throughout the remaining two years of his term.

By mid-1975 the Republican party has generally centered their focus to Vice President Connally as their candidate for 1976.  Furthermore, conservatives like Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater hail Connelly and thus no conservative challenger emerges.  Liberal Republicans like Nelson Rockefeller remain spectacle. Rockefeller doesn’t formally announce his candidacy but does urge a write-in campaign for himself in New Hampshire.  Rockefeller announces that if he gets at least 25% of write-in votes, he will then challenge Connally. On primary day the results are as follows…

Connally: 76%
Rockefeller: 19% (Write-in)
Others: 5%

The following morning, Rockefeller announces that he will not explore any “further presidential campaigning in 1976.” With the exception of a few “favorite son” candidates, Connally gets no opposition to the nomination.  In Kansas City, Connally is nominated on the first ballot and shocks many conservatives (and pleases moderate/liberal Republicans) by selecting Nixon’s Attorney General Eliot Richardson as his running mate. 

---REWIND---

By the end of 1975, the Democratic field begins to form for the 1976 election. Veteran Senators Ted Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey, were considered the front-runners as early as 1973. To no surprise, both Kennedy and Humphrey announce their intentions to run. Conservative Democrats looks towards Henry Jackson and George Wallace to run and both announce their intentions to run as well.  Also, Jimmy Carter, Frank Church and Jerry Brown enter the race. As the Iowa caucus rolls around, polls are showing a three way race between Humphrey, Kennedy and Carter (Wallace refuses to campaign there).  On the day of the caucus, the caucus shows that it really wasn’t a three way race after all.

Humphrey: 42%
Kennedy: 25%
Carter: 10%
Jackson: 5%
Church: 4%
Brown: 3%
Others: 1%

Heading to New Hampshire, Kennedy is still favored to win however, after Hubert Humphrey’s big win in Iowa, it makes it a huge primary.  Despite, Kennedy’s victory, may see the primary victory as a huge blow to his campaign.

Kennedy: 38%
Humphrey: 37%
Carter: 13%
Brown: 4%
Jackson: 2%
Church: 2%
Wallace: 1%
Others: 3%   

After NH, came the Florida primary (with Church and Jackson now out of the campaign).  With a huge chance for either Wallace or Carter to make an impact to the nomination, it fails when Humphrey makes a huge media blitz and wins the all important Florida primary.

Humphrey: 35%
Wallace: 32%
Carter: 19%
Kennedy: 8%
Brown: 1%
Others: 5%

After Florida, Humphrey (in general) has a clear path to win the nomination for a second time.

Humphrey (Red)
Kennedy (Blue)
Others (Gray)
   Carter: GA
   Church: ID
   Jackson: WA
   Wallace: AK, MS, AL, NC, SC

The Democratic National Convention is held in NYC.  All Democrats move their delegates to Humphrey and is chosen unanimously. Humphrey selects Arizona Congressman Mo Udall as his running mate.

By Labor Day, Humphrey has a 7 point lead over Connally (48%-41%). The campaign focuses on two very opposite men. The liberal and professional Humphrey campaigns with the message of expanding the Great Society and improving the American quality of live and refrains from going after Connally directly.  Connally, on the other hand, attacks Humphrey for his performance as Vice President and (wrongfully) places blame on Vietnam on Humphrey.  Three debates are held (2 for the president and 1 for the vice president).  To everyone’s amazement, Connally performs better than expected though he blames Humphrey and the Democratic Party for “starting every war this centaury.” (Bob Dole actually used that claim in 1976). In the Vice Presidential debate, Richardson clearly outshines Udall though most pundits called the debate “more boring than a high school algebra class.”

The debates make little head room for Connally.  Humphrey leads Connally by 5 points on Halloween and results are no shock on election day. Hubert Humphrey’s life long dream has come true.

Humphrey/Udall: 304 (52%)
Connally/Richardson : 234 (46%)

The House sees the Democrats gain only 4 seats (instead of 1) while the Senate has no change (as per actual).

The 95th Congress looks as follows:

House
Democrats: 253
Republicans: 182

Senate:
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 42
Other: 2

Coming up - President Humphrey - An administration of hope and promise but also with tragedy.

Side Notes:

1. Without Watergate, Nixon would have has enough capital to prevent the over riding of the War Powers Act and he would have been able to select John Connally like he really wanted to. Without the War Powers Act, Nixon could continue to support South Vietnam.  The idea with South Vietnam is to have it similar to South Korea‘s cease fire and current state with North Korea. I do believe that Nixon’s relationship with the Far East might have been able to save South Vietnam and I do not think Nixon would have cared how the public felt about it.

2. Without Watergate, the idea of having a one-term governor from Georgia as the Democratic nominee does not sit well with the party.  I do believe that the Democrats would look towards experience and professionalism in 1976 in selecting their candidate. With Kennedy being tainted and Wallace being out-of touch, Humphrey falls into the nomination. Between Connally and Humphrey, Humphrey comes across more professional plus Connally continues to carry some unwanted baggage.

For you folks reading this: Regarding my side notes, what’s your view? Would Nixon save South Vietnam and would HHH make it in ‘76?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I've always wanted to write an Alternative History TL where no Watergate scandal occurs, but it looks like it's already been done. Keep up the good work.

So considering Hubert Humphrey was elected over John Connally in '76, I'm assuming that he'll die in '78 and that Vice President Udall will take office as America's 39th President, thus becoming America's first Morman president. Who would Udall select as VP? Would it be Teddy Kennedy?

In response to the question you asked before here's my answers:

I'm not sure if Nixon could have saved South Vietnam. I doubt it, primarliy because the Democrats in Congress signed the War Powers Act, stopping Nixon's plans of giving aid to the South Vietnamese. But, I could imagine Nixon trying to stop the War, after he promised he'd bring an honorable end to it when he was elected in 1968.

Well, Hubert could have won the nomination in 1976, but he said he'd drop out if he didn't do so well in the Buckeyed states primary and that was the case.  Apart from that he was still loved in the Democratic party and would have been welcomed back to be nominated by them.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Sorry for the delay - I still like to do this story!

I noticed an error I made in my last post. The Senate should have 57 Democrats and 1 Independent. I added an extra Independent by mistake.

President Humphrey’s inaugural address would be later known as the liberals' mantra…

"The moral test of Government is how that Government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped."

President Humphrey, within his first six weeks of his presidency, lays out his four point agenda.

1. Passage of a Universal Health Care System.
2. Guarantee full employment to all citizens over 16 and set up a permanent system of public jobs to meet that goal.
3. An increase in the capital gains tax in order to supplement points 1 and 2.
4. Turn over of the Panama Canal to Panama.

The agenda is warmly embraced by most Democrats however conservatives are up in arms over expansion of social programs. Humphrey is able to pass (narrowly) an increase of the capital gains tax and begins to tout this health care system through the country in late spring of 1977.  Despite conservative uproars over these actions, Humphrey’s pitch to the public is seen as very effective.

By August 1977, President Humphrey’s approval rating are at 59% despite the fact that conservatives give the president a 23% approval rating.   

On August 16, 1977, President Humphrey announces that he has cancer. The President does not reveal any more details other than the fact that he has cancer. President Humphrey assures everyone that “I will fight this cancer just like I’ve done in all my campaigns.” With Congress, in recess for the summer, there is little happening in Washington during the summer of 1977. President Humphrey announces that he will seek treatment at the Mayo Clinic during the summer recess.

By October, the President’s illness is taking a toll. President Humphrey is more haggard and thinner than ever. Refusing to resign or even temporally step aide to Vice President Udall, the government is still at a stand still throughout the remainder of 1977.  Despite the standstill, the nation rallies around the President and has a 76% approval rating on Christmas Day 1977.   On 13 January 1978, President Humphrey passes away from his illness that the age of 66.  Vice President Udall is sworn in as the 39th President that same day.

President Udall assures the nation that business will continue and that he will fulfill President Humphrey’s agenda. Udall nominates Pennsylvania Governor Milton Shapp  to become his Vice President.  Despite conservative Democratic Senator James Eastland’s threat to filibuster the nomination because of Shapp’s Jewish background, the threat is largely ignored by congress and Shapp wins confirmation by wide margins (96-3 in the Senate and 415-12 in the House). 

The primary problem facing President Udall, upon taking office, is the economy.  With the presidency under a freeze for almost 6 months, it proved to be harmful for the economy. First, no budget was sent to congress until April 1978. With the budget being  submitted about 2 months later than usual, it gave limbo to several government jobs. Republicans gave issue to the budget as President Udall called for a second increase in capital gains tax and an income tax rise to combats inflation as it continued to rise during President‘s Humphrey‘s illness. With the threat of a government shutdown on July 1st, Udall’s budget is passed in full with only two Republicans (Lowell Weicker and Jacob Javits)  voting in favor of it.  A public poll taken, after the vote, had 59% of Americans disapproving of the budget.

The Panama Canal Treaty is ratified by the Senate, by one vote, in September 1978. It quickly becomes a rally cry for conservative Republicans who charge that President Udall and the Democrats are selling away America’s security.  This rally cry actually becomes effective when the 1978 election gave the Democrats their biggest loss in decades. Republicans gain 38 seats in the House and gain 9 seats in the Senate.   For the first time since 1953, the Republican party has control of congress. The 96th Congress looks as follows:

House
Democrats: 215
Republicans: 220

John J. Rhodes (R-AZ) becomes Speaker of the House
Bob Michel (R-IL) becomes Majority Leader
Tip O’Neal (D-MA) becomes the Minority Leader

Senate:
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 51
Other: 1

Howard Baker (R-TN) becomes Majority Leader
Bob Byrd (D-WV) becomes Minority Leader

Exit polls had voters dissatisfied with rising inflation and the Senate passing the Panama Canal treaty.  President Udall’s approval rating is 43% with voters most upset over his handling of the economy and inability to control inflation.

A few Senate changes…

Ed Brooke survives re-election by defeating Paul Tsongas in Massachusetts.
Bob Griffin defeats Carl Levin in Michigan. 
Arch Moore defeats Jennings Randolph in West Virginia

Next - 1979 and the 1980 election.

One quick note..

The Panama Canal treaty is passed 6 months later than the actual one. This is based off of President Humphrey’s death. This was a huge issue in the actual ‘78 election however, it was defused by the Camp David talks. In this fiction, President Udall does no such action with Egypt and Israel.

[SPC]

Great timeline.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'm glad you have continued it again. I can't wait for the 1980 Presidential Election.

[CPT MikeyMike]

1979 gives President Udall a challenge with Iran. Unlike Carter, who waited 9 months to allow the Shah medical treatment, President Udall invites the Shah to the Mayo Clinic for medical treatment in March of 1979, after the Shah‘s government falls. The new Iranian government is in uproar over this action and demands the United States to send the Shah back to Iran for criminal trial. When the US refuses, Iranians storm the US Embassy on 04 June 1979 and hold 52 Americans hostages.  President Udall immediately calls for action.  After 3 months of talks fail, Udall takes military action by conducting a naval blockade of Iran. The United States Navy turned away over 100 economic and humanitarian ship coming towards Iran over the course of 90 days. President Udall announces that unless the hostages are released, this blockade will continue. Also, to help the United States, Iraq announced that they will block all commerce trade between Iraq and Iran. On 03 December 1979, all 52 hostages are released and upon all hostages arriving on US soil safe and sound, President Udall lifts the Naval blockade. There were no Sailors killed during the blockade and no military or civilian vessels damaged.

President Udall continues to face compounding problems for 1979. Inflation continues to grow and unemployment is rising. In submitting his budget, which called for again raising the capital gains taxes, it is shot down by the Republican congress.  Furthermore, Republicans attempt to cut President Humphrey’s plan to full employment to all citizens over 16. Funding is cut in the 1979 budget by nearly 60%. Despite President Udall’s veto, the veto is upheld by a single vote. Throughout 1979, President Udall can only watch as inflation and unemployment rise without being able to control it with a Republican congress. 

1980 is no different for President Udall. After the hostage release, President Udall’s approval rating jumped from 39% to 63% on New Years Day. However, by April 1980, President Udall’s rating again fell to under 50% (actually at 46%) as a result of the economy falling into a recession.

---REWIND---

By mid-spring 1979, several Republicans begin to line-up in the running.  To everyone’s amazement, Ronald Reagan announces in February 1979 that he will not run for president.  Several conservative Republicans jump into the race including former Vice President John Connally and Illinois Congressman Phil Crane.  Several moderates jump in as well like Kansas Senator Bob Dole and Massachusetts Senator Ed Brooke. By the end of 1979, conservatives are behind Congressman Crane while the moderate to liberals are backing Senator Brooke.

The Iowa caucus is a huge test for everyone.  Crane, who was favored, wins the caucus but it’s Bob Dole’s performance who shocks Ed Brooke and the Republican field.

Crane: 40%
Dole: 33%
Brooke: 13%
Connally: 8%
Others: 6%

New Hampshire primary was going to be “the do or die” state, according to Ed Brooke, who hoped that being from New England, he would have an upper hand. It failed. With a last minute endorsement from Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater, Crane wins New Hampshire with ease.

Crane: 52%
Brooke: 22%
Dole: 19%
Connally: 4%
Others: 3%

Bob Dole, who had a huge chance to capitalize from his Iowa performance fails to make any ground.  Brooke, a week later wins the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries (as expected).  A week after that, in the pivotal South Carolina primary, Crane asserts himself as the Republican nominee with a huge landslide.

Crane: 70%
Connally: 17%
Dole: 8%
Brooke: 2%
Others: 3%

Realizing Crane’s huge lead, both Connally and Dole withdraw from the race and endorses Crane. Meanwhile, Brooke vows to remain in the race.  Crane wins the Alabama, Florida Georgia and Illinois primaries setting up  a showdown with Brooke in two northeastern primaries: New York and Connecticut.   Needing to win both, to keep his campaign alive, Brooke suffers two devastating  losses.

New York
Crane: 58%
Brooke: 41%
Others: 1%

Connecticut
Crane: 54%
Brooke: 44%
Others: 2%

Realizing, he can not overcome Crane, Brooke withdraws from the race the morning after those primaries and backs Crane.  Crane wins every other primary (except for Brooke winning Rhode Island). The convention in Detroit is a smooth one and Crane is formally nominated with ease. Crane, who is predicted to select either Senator Bob Dole or Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada as his running mate, throws no punches and selects Dole.

President Udall, meanwhile, faces only token opposition in the primaries and wins everyone with ease.  He is nominated by acclamation and Vice President Shapp is Udall’s running mate.

A week after the Democratic National Convention, the election appears to be tight race with Crane holding only a four point lead over President Udall (45%-41%).  Both Udall and Crane went on the attack mode on each other. Crane, claiming that Udall ‘s policies are “leading us to a second Great Depression.” While Udall warned Americans that electing Crane as president would be  like “electing Barry Goldwater.” The two presidential debates did nothing more than showed the candidates their attack mode. Crane, during his final remarks at the second debate took the advice of his deputy Campaign Manager - Ronald Reagan to ask Americans “Are you better off than  you were four years ago?” Clearly, when the voters voted a few weeks later, America said “NO.” Crane wins by a 7 point margin and a near-landslide in the electoral college.

Crane/Dole: 389 (53%)
Udall/Shapp : 149 (46%)

Below are the House/Senate results. No change in the House to the actual 1980 elections. See my note on the Senate.

House
Democrats: 180 (-35)
Republicans: 254 (+34 as in 1980)
Other: 1

Senate:
Democrats: 41 (-7)
Republicans: 58 (+7)
Other: 1

Bob Dole’s seat falls into Democratic hands when he resigns and his seat and it goes to Kansas State Treasurer Joan Finney. She will hold that seat until the 1982 mid-term elections.

Next - President Crane’s first two years.  I do foresee a scandal coming up too!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What do you guys think so far?

I don't understand how the choice of Gerry Ford as VP doesn't happen without Watergate.

[CPT MikeyMike]

My reason behind John Connally becoming Vice President, instead of Gerald Ford, was based off Nixon's political capital, which was damaged by Watergate in October 1973.

Nixon's first choice, all along was John Connally. As everyone knows, Connally was a rather controversial choice and Nixon didn't go that route. Nixon then thought of Nelson Rockefeller or Ronald Reagan but it was clear than congress wouldn't approve of them either. Congress basically told Nixon that the only person who would win confirmation was Jerry Ford and Nixon listened to them. Nixon knew Ford well but Nixon didn't have high regard for Ford. Nixon once said that the only two men that were capable to run America effectively were Nelson Rockefeller and John Connally. Nixon felt that by having Ford as VP, there would be no impeachment charges brought upon him as, Nixon thought, Congress would not want to have Jerry Ford as president - of course Nixon was wrong.

IMO, without Watergate, Nixon would still have political capital. 1973 would have created some political capital for Nixon with the success of the Vietnam ceasefire and the US State Department's success in ending the Yom Kipper War. With this political capital, Nixon would have been more successful in his power of persuasion to get a controversial figure like John Connally confirmed. It would have been a struggle but Nixon probably would have had a stronger chance to get his own man in the #2 spot without Watergate.

That's my take on it. Of course, subject to debate. Good point brought up though!

One more point - In this timeline, Ford steps down as House Minority leader after the 1974 elections. He retires from Congress, and public life, after the 1976 election. I will also point out that there is no Betty Ford Clinic created - this will play out in my story soon. 

[SPC]

Please update this soon.

[pragmatic liberal]

I don't know that ultimately the political cycle would have been all that radically different.

Nixon completes two terms. Despite major domestic opposition, an oil crisis, a continuing stalemate in Vietnam and economic stagnation, there are some significant achievements. Major arms reductions treaties are signed with the Soviet Union, The U.S. opened contacts with Communist China, comprehensive national health insurance is passed by a bipartisan majority, a negative income tax is experimented with, and major environmental legislation, including creation of the EPA, is enacted.

By 1976, most U.S. forces are withdrawn from Vietnam, but several thousand remain. Despite the Democrats' congressional majority, even after the 1974 election, they lack the votes to force a complete withdrawal.

In the 1976 election, Vice President Spiro Agnew competes for the Republican nomination with former Democrat and Texas governor John Connally as well as former California governor Ronald Reagan, and New York governor Nelson Rockefeller. Nixon declines an official endorsement of any, but behind the scenes he backs Connally. Nixon, it later emerges, hopes that a Connally victory will lead to the creation of a new "Conservative Party" to formalize the effective realignment within American politics. His hopes are not realized, as Reagan eventually wins the nomination.

Agnew's campaign implodes when it emerges that he took bribes as governor of Maryland. It is suspected that the tip-off came from insiders in the Nixon White House, hoping for a Connally nomination. Connally is unable to overcome suspicions about his own business dealings, however, and comes under suspicions by the Republican establishment for his history as a Democrat and his closeness with Lyndon Johnson.

Reagan wins the nomination and nominates Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania as his running mate (would there be any reason to change this in an alternate timeline? I think not).

The Democratic nomination is won by Sen. Frank Church of Idaho who triumphs over a crowded field. He names Gov. Reubin Askew of Florida as his running mate. Promising a complete end to the Vietnam War, he defeats Ronald Reagan, with 326 electoral votes and 52% of the popular vote. (Reagan takes 212 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote).

Nixon would leave office a deeply divisive president. He remained heavily disliked by 40% of the population. But despite his missteps, he remained generally respected and well-regarded by a narrow majority of Americans. Left-leaning historians would rate him poorly in the immediate aftermath of his presidency, but historical assessments of Nixon would improve during the 1970s and early 1980s.

His reputation among scholars, however, took a nosedive in the late 1980s and early 1990s, as historians and archivists unearthed extensive corruption and illegal activities from within the White House. By Nixon's death in 1994, it was apparent that his administration had quietly been among the most corrupt in American history. Scholarly assessments of Nixon continue to be divided, with some surveys placing him comfortably in the top 20 presidents and others leaving him near the bottom.

President Frank Forrester Church III, 1977-1981

Church's presidency would see some major successes in foreign policy including continued detente with the Soviet Union and the Chinese. Church's administration recognized the PRC in 1977, as well as pulling all remaining U.S. troops out of Vietnam within weeks of taking office. In a move that proved wildly unpopular in his home state, Church negotiated the handover of the Panama Canal Zone to the Republic of Panama. Church also initiated diplomatic talks with Fidel Castro and relaxed many of the restrictions placed by the U.S. embargo in Cuba. He controversially overrode the recommendations of the State Department and the CIA to fund insurgents in Afghanistan following that nation's takeover by a pro-Soviet government. He refused to intervene in Iran following the fall of the Shah of Iran. Although the U.S. extended support to a moderate government, events quickly overtook U.S. plans and the radical cleric Ayatollah Khomeini seized power in 1979 and declared an Islamic Republic. After a period of mixed signals, Church chose to recognize the Islamic Republic and, in a move criticized by opponents in both parties, refused to admit the deposed Shah for medical treatment in 1979. The Shah would seek treatment in Turkey.

Under Church, a minor civil rights bill passed, as did an expansion of coverage under Nixon's comprehensive national health insurance. The Department of Energy was founded and major efforts were made to improve energy efficiency, including the imposition of a 55-hour speed limit. A small guaranteed annual income was enacted.

Nevertheless, the economy remained sour with inflation remaining high and growth anemic. Conservatives within the Democratic Party as well as hawks in the Republican opposition derided Church for his dovish foreign policy and his cuts to the CIA.

In 1980, Church would again face Ronald Reagan, who easily defeated Kansas senator Bob Dole for the Republican nomination. Reagan selected the well-regarded Tennessee senator Howard Baker as his running mate.

Church was assailed for his dovish foreign policy views, which had seen cuts to the intelligence and military budgets, withdrawal from Vietnam, and a refusal to intervene militarily in Iran or Afghanistan. The economic "stagflation" of the times also dampened voter enthusiasm for Church. Voters nevertheless were uneasy with Ronald Reagan's hawkishness.

In the general election that fall, in a virtual reversal of 1976, the Reagan-Baker ticket would defeat the incumbents Church and Askew by a 52-47% margin in the popular vote. Reagan's coattails brought gains for the Republicans in both Houses of Congress, although they failed to win control of either chamber.

Among Reagan's immediate reversals would be his appealing the guaranteed annual income enacted under Church and replacing it with large-scale income tax cuts. He would also quickly impose U.S. aid to insurgents fighting the Communist regime in Afghanistan, prompting a Soviet invasion in 1982 that would prove a major drain on the Soviet Union and would contribute to its 1990 collapse ...

***

Reagan would defeat Sen. Walter Mondale of Minnesota in 1984 in a landslide victory. Mondale had managed to attain the nomination over former Vice President Askew by his close alliance with Labor and leading liberals in the Democratic Party establishment. Askew's bid was further hurt by the insurgent campaign of Sen. Gary Hart, who split the anti-Mondale votes with Askew and cemented Mondale's victory.

Reagan's second term was marred, however, by revelations of illegal arms dealing with Iran, with funds used to support right-wing Nicaraguan Contras. The discovery sent Reagan's approval ratings into the low 40th-percentile and lead to his impeachment by the House. Nevertheless, the Senate failed to convict, although a majority of the U.S. Senate voted to remove (52-48).

The affair threatened to give the Democrats the White House in 1988, but Vice President Howard Baker denied any wrongdoing, and was indeed cleared of all charges by the independent counsel's office. Republicans would nominate Baker in 1988, and he chose Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole, wife of Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, to be his running mate. Gary Hart made a serious run for the Democratic nomination, but saw his candidacy implode late in 1987 when he was forced to admit to an extramarital affair. He came in a disappointing 2nd in Iowa and 3rd in New Hampshire, and the nomination was won by former Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis, who would lose to Vice President Baker in the general election that fall.

Although popular, Baker would see his reelection hopes dashed by a persistent economic recession between 1991 and 1992. After the refusal of New York governor Mario Cuomo to run, Arkansas governor Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination and in a three-way race with businessman Ross Perot, Clinton was elected president, along with Al Gore, like Baker, a Tennessee senator.

Clinton would defeat Bob Dole in a landslide election in 1996, paving the way for Al Gore's nomination in 2000. Gore and his running mate Dianne Feinstein defeated the Republican ticket of Michigan governor John Engler and Florida senator Connie Mack by narrowly defeating the Republican ticket in Florida and winning a 278-260 electoral college victory.

2004 would see the Republicans regain the White House after 12 years with the nomination of Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska...

[pragmatic liberal]

(Continuing the last post..)

So to recap, changes to the timeline would be:

Presidents from 1961 on...

35. John F. Kennedy, Democrat (1961-1963)
36. Lyndon B. Johnson, Democrat (1963-1969)
37. Richard M. Nixon, Republican (1969-1977)
38. Frank F. Church III, Democrat (1977-1981)
39. Ronald W. Reagan, Republican (1981-1989)
40. Howard Baker, Republican (1989-1993)
41. William J. Clinton, Democrat (1993-2001)
42. Albert A. Gore, Jr., Democrat (2001-2005)
43. Chuck Hagel, Republican (2005- )

As you can see, there weren't as many major changes as one might expect. There were some differences in policy, the most important one being national health insurance and an experiment with a guaranteed annual income. Without Watergate, there is no reason to go outside Washington for the Democrats and Frank Church wins the nomination and the presidency.

Reagan comes to power as in the original timeline, but the Soviet-Afghan War is delayed by 4 years and the Congress isn't quite as conservative as the one Reagan had in the real timeline. His victory in 1980 is much more narrow.

Without Watergate, there is no "impeachment" fatigue preventing impeachment of Ronald Reagan over Iran-Contra. However, he remains relatively popular and he is not removed from office.

Without Nixon's removal from office, George H.W. Bush's career is stymied. This is a point that is more debatable, but I considered it because Bush's advancement to liason to PR China and to CIA director occurred under Ford, who isn't president. Nevertheless, Bush was a Nixon loyalist, so he may have received a plum job or a cabinet appointment under Nixon, which might have resulted in him running in '80 and winning the vice presidential nomination as in real life. If that's the case, then the timeline actually dramatically traces the actual one. As I structured it, Bush doesn't attain any major political significance, doesn't become President or Vice President, and as such the Bush dynasty is cut short. Although it is plausible that Jeb Bush may still have risen quite far within the party and could have won the Florida governorship, although he would have needed more than his name to get him there.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Not a bad outlook.  I do agree with your analysis on George Bush's career. He would still have some future role but I do not see him become president.

As you will see, mine is a bit different. My timeline with go through 2008.

To be continued...

[CPT MikeyMike]

President Crane assumes office with the biggest Republican majority in almost a half century.  Seventy days after taking office, on March 30, 1981, President Crane is shot at the Washington Hilton by John Hinckley Jr.  The bullet hits President Crane in the right shoulder and is treated and released from the hospital in less than 72 hours. The assassination attempt does give President Crane a boost in the polls and stands at 74% approval in May 1981.

Because of the large majorities in congress, President Crane is successful in passing legislation in cutting taxes and calls for a 30% reduction in government spending to social programs over the next 5 years. Many Democrats cry that the President will drive the economy into another depression. Also President Crane calls for expansion of the military, practically in expanding forces in Western Europe. He is met in opposition by the Soviet Union, with President Crane stating that he will not negotiate over his military expansion, thus there are no talks with the Soviet Union in 1981 or 1982. 

Side note: In August 1981, President Crane appoints former Solicitor General Robert Bork to replace Potter Stewart on the Supreme Court turning the court further to the right.  Despite debate, Bork is confirmed by a 53-47 vote.

1982 shows little signs of any improvement with the economy. Unemployment and inflation are still rising. Blame begins to fall on President Crane to raise taxes and reduce the amount of social budget cuts. President Crane refuses to do so and we see a downward spiral in the polls from taking office in 1981 through 1982.

A break down of President Crane’s approval ratings (1981-1982)

March 1981
   Approve: 53%
   Disapprove: 39%

May 1981
   Approve: 74%
   Disapprove: 20%

October 1981
   Approve: 51%
   Disapprove: 43%

March 1982
   Approve: 45%
   Disapprove: 47%

August 1982
   Approve: 40%
   Disapprove: 52%

The 1982 elections reflect the American people’s sentiment regarding the continuing recession that is plaguing the nation. Democrats were able to gain 35 seats in the House and 5 seats in the Senate. Republicans still hold majorities in both houses of congress however, it is clear that the American people are not happy with President Crane’s economic policies.

House
Democrats: 214 (+34)
Republicans: 221 (-33)

Republicans gain only Bob Dole’s old Senate seat. Connecticut Senator Lowell Weicker goes down in defeat.

Senate:
Democrats: 46 (+5)
Republicans: 54 (-4)

One note: House Speaker John Rhodes retires and Majority Leader Bob Michel becomes Speaker of the House. Mississippi Representative Trent Lott becomes House Majority Leader.

The next morning, in a stunning announcement, former President Mo Udall announces that he will run for the Democratic Presidential  nomination in 1984.

President Crane’s approval ratings stands at 33%. Furthermore, polls are showing that President Crane would lose re-election in 1984 to former President Udall by a 47-31 margin. Three weeks later, more trouble compounds the President. Caught on camera, by several Chicago news stations covering the President trip home for Thanksgiving , President Crane appears to be severely intoxicated upon arrival in Chicago. The President facing one news outlet is slurring his words as he comments on his vacation plans and is lacking balance. Several members of his staff quickly move the President along to his limo however the 15 second of the president, on camera, is shown across the nation on the nightly news as several reporters ask “Can the president handle this job?” President Crane’s press secretary attempts to clear the issue up by saying the President was having a bad cold and took some drowsy cold pills however, two members of the White House Press Corps claim to have smelled liquor on the President as he spoke to a few members on the flight out.

The damage was done. Within a week of the incident, President Crane’s approval rating now stands at 29% with 76% believing that the President was intoxicated on the flight to Chicago.

In December, it is leaked to the press that Massachusetts Congressman Gerry Studds has a sexual relationship with a 17 year old male page. This will play out big in 1983 for President Crane...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Great scandal to bring down Crane!

Will anyone challenge President Crane for the 1984 Republican Nomination? Like George H.W. Bush or Pat Robertson. You could make Robertson run against Crane, he loses the GOP nomination then runs as a conservative indepedent. That could make the 1984 Presidential Election interesting, however it's your timeline so do what you wany with it.

Great job. MikeyMike!

[CPT MikeyMike]

Rocky - the intoxicated incident is only the beginning for Crane. I have more, and it has to do with the last blurb. In actuality, Phil Crane was an alcoholic and confessed to it in his 2000 reelection campaign.

I’ll have more later. I’m working on 1983 and 1984 right now and there is a lot for me to cover.

[CPT MikeyMike]

President Crane begins 1983 with one of the lowest approval ratings in over 30 years. The economy is still in a recession, the Cold War is still a threat and the intoxication incident is still being mentioned throughout Washington. President Crane, despite all of this, makes clear that he intends to run for re-election in 1984 and will be re-elected.

Congress begins investigations into Massachusetts Congressman Gerry Studds and his sexual relationship with a 17 year old male page. Studds (as in reality) is censured by the House in July 1983. Many Democrats, felt that Studds’ censured was part of a “witch hunt” conducted by the Republicans. However, in August, it is leaked to the press that President Crane’s brother, Indiana Congressman Dan Crane, engaged in sexual relations with a 17 year old female page back in 1981. Democrats, seeing an opportunity to revenge the Republicans, attempt to investigate.  With a handful of Republicans supporting the investigation, the investigation is conducted. Hearings are held in late August. One of the first witnesses to testify before the ethics panel is the female page. The page, confesses to having a relationship with Dan Crane however is told to keep quite about it.

She replied “I was paid $10,000 not to speak.”

When asked who kept her quite, she replied, “Mr. Crane told me that his brother would financially reward me if I kept quite.”

“Are you referring to, Phil Crane?”

The page replied, “Yes sir, President Crane.”

The Ethic Committee is outraged. It appears that President Crane has attempted to pay off a congressional page in return for silence. House Minority Leader Tip O’Neil calls immediately for impeachment proceedings to begin on the President. Speaker Michel, more restrained ,calls for “completing the current investigation and then determine where to go on the President.”

With this plaguing the president, the president faces anther crisis when on 01 September 1983, Korean Air Flight 007 is shot down by a Soviet Union jet fighter when the commercial aircraft enters Soviet airspace. All 269 on board are killed. President Crane, who has not had any diplomatic relations with the USSR to date, calls this “an act of terrorism” and calls for immediately military action on the Soviet Union.  This places fear with some members of congress and in his own cabinet. The President’s Secretary of State, Al Haig, states, “Action? I’m in favor of conducting diplomatic action, not military action. Military action would launch World War Three” After a week, the President instead, calls for an immediate expulsion of the Soviet Union from the Soviet Embassy in Washington. Secretary Haig, as well as 10 Senators (bipartisan), object to the Presidents call and head to the Soviet Embassy to announce their opposition to the expulsion. Haig makes clear that he “is disgusted over the Soviet’s actions but we need to open dialog and not close it.”  President Crane, angered over Haig’s public opposition, is immediately dismissed.  Despite the President’s threat of expulsion of the Soviets, the action is never carried out.

Americans are outraged. With the page scandal and the reaction to the Soviet Union,  Crane’s approval ratings are standing at 23% - a record low for the President. On 02 October 1983, Rhode Island Senator John Chafee, becomes the first Senator to state that he would convict the President if a trial comes to the Senate. Furthermore, Chafee announces that he will challenge the President in the 1984 Republican primaries. Polls show Chafee with nearly a 2-1 margin over the incumbent.

In December 1983, Dan Crane is censured by the House.  Republicans in the House, announce that they will investigate the President’s actions involving the page scandal after the winter holiday.

President Crane does receive good news, shortly before Christmas, as the economy is beginning to improve with the first signs of solid economic growth in almost 5 years.  The same day however, as the economic news is released,  an 20/20 interview with Al Haig is broadcasted with some shocking discoveries about the Crane administration.

Barbara Walters: What would you say what the biggest issue you had working with the President?

Al Haig: Overall, I think his inability to cope. There were…

Walters: Wait, to cope?

Haig: Yes Barbara. The Presidency is a very stressful job to have. I saw the stress with Nixon when I was Chief of Staff and Nixon could handle it pretty well. Phil Crane is different. His family is not strong like Nixon’s was. Nixon could turn to Pat when he was stressed. Crane turns to alcohol.

Walters (camera shows her mouth drop and pauses for a second): General Haig, are you saying that Phil Crane, the President of the United States is an alcoholic?

Haig: If he isn’t, then I don’t know what is an alcoholic.

The interview only backs up the intoxication incident from a year ago. It is clear that it is damaging to the Presidency.  As 1983 ends, here is the breakdown of the following polls.

President Crane’s approval rating
   Approve: 21%
   Disapprove: 76%

Republican Primaries
   Chafee: 56%
   Crane: 30%
   Undecided: 14%

In a hypothetical election match-up
   Former President Udall: 55%
   President Crane: 29%
   Undecided: 16%

Next: 1984. What happens to President Crane? Can he defeat John Chafee and does Former President Udall “simply walk” to the nomination?

What happens next may surprise you!