Trump and low propensity voters

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting theme of this cycle has been the divergence between polling and election results, with polling indicating a very promising picture for Trump and the GOP, but midterm, special, and primary elections not reflecting those gains.

A huge argument I see is that it's because there are a bunch of low propensity voters who will only show up to vote in November 2024 for Trump. There is some basis to this, Presidential elections have higher turnout than midterms and some polls have suggested less reliable voters breaking heavily for Trump by as much as 2-1. We've also generally seen the GOP gain with more working class non-college voters who are generally less likely to vote in off-elections.

However, there are also some reasons to be skeptical. For one the heavy skew many people suggest seems unlikely and would suggest a pretty dramatic under the surface re-alignment. Statistically, one would expect reliable voters and less reliable voters to have a pretty small delta unless politics becomes divided by political engagement, which just isn't the case. Another point is that if these are people who haven't voted in any election since 2020, what's to say they'll show up in 2024, especially since the consensus of this forum seems to be 2024 will be lower turnout than 2020?

What do ya'll think? Do these people actually exist, or is it a mirage to try and explain faulty polling?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Another point is that if these are people who haven't voted in any election since 2020, what's to say they'll show up in 2024, especially since the consensus of this forum seems to be 2024 will be lower turnout than 2020?

Occam's razor suggests that a large subset of the voters who showed up in 2020 who won't show up in 2024 are disproportionately VBM cohorts, who turned out the first time it became widespread (and because there was nothing else to do during Covid). Keep in mind VBM utilization has dropped each cycle, from 2020->2021->2022->2023.

[mjba257]

I do subscribe to the low propensity voter theory. This is actually the first election in my lifetime where higher turnout benefits the Republicans. Used to be the exact opposite case.

[Respect and Compassion]

The thing is, you'll have to immediately scrub the "special elections" AND the 2023 elections out of your list of (election results that arguably are more predictive of 2024 than 2024 Presidential polling).

Special elections are far too low turnout and have far too much variation based on turnout differentials. For instance, during primary night in New Hampshire, Republicans swung a couple state legislative seats their way. I don't think that meant that the 2024 election was suddenly more R friendly.

Note that in 2022, Republicans did much better in NE-01 in the general than they did in the special, once higher turnout kicked in. What do you think even higher turnout for a Presidential race would do? Same thing applied to the NY-19 special election between Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro, though the district lines were different in November (and Ryan wasn't up against Molinaro that time around).

The 2023 elections were a totally different animal compared with the 2024 elections. Kentucky and Mississippi's gubernatorial elections, along with the Ohio abortion referendum, are way too different from 2024 in terms of candidates, attention, turnouts from demographics, issues, etc. There were many Trump voters who voted to keep abortion rights in Ohio...and many Trump voters who stayed home in 2023 for that referendum but will turn out for Trump in 2024.

I would suggest focusing on the pattern we've seen within districts for the same exact kind of seat where R's improve the more turnout rises. For instance, Tom Tiffany did better in the general in November with Trump at the top of the ticket than how Tom Tiffany did in the special earlier that year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Wisconsin%27s_7th_congressional_district_special_election

and as mentioned before, NE-01 general was much more favorable to R's than the NE-01 special in 2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nebraska%27s_1st_congressional_district_special_election

As more and more noncollege/working class/lower propensity white voters show up, R's do better. Trump is the best R for those kinds of voters, and those voters are already more likely to show up in Presidential cycles than they are in off-year cycles. On top of all that, Trump is a better R for lower propensity minorities as well, as shown in his improvements in multiple areas in 2020 relative to 2016&2018. R's improved slightly in 2022 in some places, but they don't have the same level of cred with them as Trump does.