Rate the chances of the following things happening
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Rate the chances of the following things happening
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Author Topic: Rate the chances of the following things happening  (Read 315 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 08, 2024, 07:55:28 PM »

-Biden wins a second term
-Trump wins a second term
-Neither Biden nor Trump win a second term

-The Democratic nominee wins the election
-The Republican nominee wins the election

-The Democratic nominee wins the popular vote
-The Republican nominee wins the popular vote

-Trump is convicted and is forced out of the race
-Trump is convicted but stays in the race
-Trump is not convicted by Election Day

-Biden withdraws from the race
-Biden stays in the race
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2024, 08:10:49 PM »

Biden/Trump/other victory: 80% - 20% - negligible

EC victory: 80% - 20% (as above)

PV victory: 90% - 10%

Conviction with teeth/conviction without teeth/no conviction: 0% - 25% - 75%

Biden withdrawal: Not happening
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2024, 08:14:44 PM »

Another scenario to consider:

President Biden wins the Democratic nomination, but subsequently either dies or becomes incapacitated.  With the 25th amendment being invoked, Vice-President Kamala Harris becomes the nominee in time for the Democratic National Convention, and wins the election on a mix of the sympathy vote and on the back of Biden's accomplishments in his term in office.  Seems a lot more likely than having him resign or being impeached for being too old (Huh).  
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It's Time.
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2024, 08:21:06 PM »

25%
40%
35%

59%
41%

58%
42%

0%
50%
50%

35%
65%
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2024, 08:26:08 PM »

-Biden wins a second term: 30%
-Trump wins a second term 65%
-Neither Biden nor Trump win a second term 5%

-The Democratic nominee wins the election 34%
-The Republican nominee wins the election 66%

-The Democratic nominee wins the popular vote 33%
-The Republican nominee wins the popular vote 67%

-Trump is convicted and is forced out of the race 3%
-Trump is convicted but stays in the race 7%
-Trump is not convicted by Election Day 90%

-Biden withdraws from the race 15%
-Biden stays in the race 85%
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2024, 08:34:57 PM »

Another scenario to consider:

President Biden wins the Democratic nomination, but subsequently either dies or becomes incapacitated.  With the 25th amendment being invoked, Vice-President Kamala Harris becomes the nominee in time for the Democratic National Convention, and wins the election on a mix of the sympathy vote and on the back of Biden's accomplishments in his term in office.  Seems a lot more likely than having him resign or being impeached for being too old (Huh).  
This is not how the Democratic National Committee chooses its nominees - or at least was not at the time of the 2020 Convention (I have not been able to find the corresponding document for 2024, if it exists at all).

If a prospective nominee cannot discharge their duties sufficiently, pledged delegates shall vote on the first ballot as normal anyway, but "shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." It is likely for this obvious reason that Harris would be nominated instead in such an event.

If an actual nominee cannot do so, the chair of the DNC is always to meet with Congressional and Democratic Governors Conference leadership, report to the DNC at-large, and authorise them to select some other nominee.
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