Whether Biden wins or loses, he will do better than expected in this year's election

[GAinDC]

Here's why I think this:

-Incumbency is still an advantage, and incumbents usually outperform their polling in competitive elections.

-The polling is not picking up soft Biden support. I know these people. They are not fans of Biden (for all the reasons you can imagine) but will absolutely vote for him against Trump.

- Biden's campaign is focused on his legislative achievements, not flash. This will not get the same kind of attention in the media, but it will matter to voters.

-Presidential approvals lag behind consumer sentiment, which lags behind economic conditions. If the economy continues to improve, it probably won't affect Biden's poll numbers until late in the campaign, if it shows up at all.

-The dems will have a much better ground game this time around. Remember that back in 2020, Dems didn't canvass door to door while Republicans did, which gave them an advantage. That won't be the case this year.


People will be surprised by Biden's strength once the votes are counted.

[SnowLabrador]

If they're going to vote for Biden against Trump, why wouldn't they tell pollsters that?

[Minnesota Mike]

Expected by who?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Here's why I think this:

-Incumbency is still an advantage, and incumbents usually outperform their polling in competitive elections.

-The polling is not picking up soft Biden support. I know these people. They are not fans of Biden (for all the reasons you can imagine) but will absolutely vote for him against Trump.

- Biden's campaign is focused on his legislative achievements, not flash. This will not get the same kind of attention in the media, but it will matter to voters.

-Presidential approvals lag behind consumer sentiment, which lags behind economic conditions. If the economy continues to improve, it probably won't affect Biden's poll numbers until late in the campaign, if it shows up at all.

-The dems will have a much better ground game this time around. Remember that back in 2020, Dems didn't canvass door to door while Republicans did, which gave them an advantage. That won't be the case this year.


People will be surprised by Biden's strength once the votes are counted.

The economy is getting worse right now, so consumer sentiment and Biden's approval ratings will probably decline later this year if this is the case at all.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Ds always overperform polls look at all the specials we beat Rs and Snowlabrador and Redban look at trash MC polls , you take all R polls with a grain of salt. Rs haven't won't since 2016 only if Eday verified. If IAN didn't happen Johnson would have absolutely lost. IAN INTERVENTION HELPED RS IN NY AND WI

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If they're going to vote for Biden against Trump, why wouldn't they tell pollsters that?

Because Middle class whites lie and polls you can lie on who you are gonna vote for, I lie too I said I was voting for Porter and now I switched and changed to Schiff, you don't have to go bye who you are gonna vote for in a poll v ballot, thats wjy it's secret ballot

How many surveys did I take saying I was a Porter support 2Oo

[ralstonfan65]

Here's why I think this:

-Incumbency is still an advantage, and incumbents usually outperform their polling in competitive elections.

-The polling is not picking up soft Biden support. I know these people. They are not fans of Biden (for all the reasons you can imagine) but will absolutely vote for him against Trump.

- Biden's campaign is focused on his legislative achievements, not flash. This will not get the same kind of attention in the media, but it will matter to voters.

-Presidential approvals lag behind consumer sentiment, which lags behind economic conditions. If the economy continues to improve, it probably won't affect Biden's poll numbers until late in the campaign, if it shows up at all.

-The dems will have a much better ground game this time around. Remember that back in 2020, Dems didn't canvass door to door while Republicans did, which gave them an advantage. That won't be the case this year.


People will be surprised by Biden's strength once the votes are counted.

The economy is getting worse right now, so consumer sentiment and Biden's approval ratings will probably decline later this year if this is the case at all.

What are you talking about? Are you a moron?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Here's why I think this:

-Incumbency is still an advantage, and incumbents usually outperform their polling in competitive elections.

-The polling is not picking up soft Biden support. I know these people. They are not fans of Biden (for all the reasons you can imagine) but will absolutely vote for him against Trump.

- Biden's campaign is focused on his legislative achievements, not flash. This will not get the same kind of attention in the media, but it will matter to voters.

-Presidential approvals lag behind consumer sentiment, which lags behind economic conditions. If the economy continues to improve, it probably won't affect Biden's poll numbers until late in the campaign, if it shows up at all.

-The dems will have a much better ground game this time around. Remember that back in 2020, Dems didn't canvass door to door while Republicans did, which gave them an advantage. That won't be the case this year.


People will be surprised by Biden's strength once the votes are counted.

The economy is getting worse right now, so consumer sentiment and Biden's approval ratings will probably decline later this year if this is the case at all.

What are you talking about? Are you a moron?

The Red Sea blockade is pushing up producer prices, which will pass on to consumers; regional banks are under stress again with commercial real estate values falling so much, and layoffs are accelerating, with hiring rates down to 2014 levels. Credit card delinquencies are the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.

[ralstonfan65]

Here's why I think this:

-Incumbency is still an advantage, and incumbents usually outperform their polling in competitive elections.

-The polling is not picking up soft Biden support. I know these people. They are not fans of Biden (for all the reasons you can imagine) but will absolutely vote for him against Trump.

- Biden's campaign is focused on his legislative achievements, not flash. This will not get the same kind of attention in the media, but it will matter to voters.

-Presidential approvals lag behind consumer sentiment, which lags behind economic conditions. If the economy continues to improve, it probably won't affect Biden's poll numbers until late in the campaign, if it shows up at all.

-The dems will have a much better ground game this time around. Remember that back in 2020, Dems didn't canvass door to door while Republicans did, which gave them an advantage. That won't be the case this year.


People will be surprised by Biden's strength once the votes are counted.

The economy is getting worse right now, so consumer sentiment and Biden's approval ratings will probably decline later this year if this is the case at all.

What are you talking about? Are you a moron?

The Red Sea blockade is pushing up producer prices, which will pass on to consumers; regional banks are under stress again with commercial real estate values falling so much, and layoffs are accelerating, with hiring rates down to 2014 levels. Credit card delinquencies are the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.

Every single thing you said takes a single data point and applies it broadly to the entire economy. Go take an economics class.

[Ferguson97]

The Red Sea blockade is pushing up producer prices, which will pass on to consumers; regional banks are under stress again with commercial real estate values falling so much, and layoffs are accelerating, with hiring rates down to 2014 levels. Credit card delinquencies are the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.

Go take an economics class. Four very specific and isolated data points does not mean the economy is “getting worse”.

[Beet]

Here's why I think this:

-Incumbency is still an advantage, and incumbents usually outperform their polling in competitive elections.

-The polling is not picking up soft Biden support. I know these people. They are not fans of Biden (for all the reasons you can imagine) but will absolutely vote for him against Trump.

- Biden's campaign is focused on his legislative achievements, not flash. This will not get the same kind of attention in the media, but it will matter to voters.

-Presidential approvals lag behind consumer sentiment, which lags behind economic conditions. If the economy continues to improve, it probably won't affect Biden's poll numbers until late in the campaign, if it shows up at all.

-The dems will have a much better ground game this time around. Remember that back in 2020, Dems didn't canvass door to door while Republicans did, which gave them an advantage. That won't be the case this year.


People will be surprised by Biden's strength once the votes are counted.

The economy is getting worse right now, so consumer sentiment and Biden's approval ratings will probably decline later this year if this is the case at all.

What are you talking about? Are you a moron?

The Red Sea blockade is pushing up producer prices, which will pass on to consumers; regional banks are under stress again with commercial real estate values falling so much, and layoffs are accelerating, with hiring rates down to 2014 levels. Credit card delinquencies are the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.

Yup, I've noticed that the inflation rate has stalled out and is no longer falling since October 7. The Fed has noticed too, and is slowing the schedule for interest rate cuts. This is going to hurt debtors (e.g. most consumers), those who have assets (401ks, etc.) and of course hurt on the consumer side. What Biden should do is call for a cease-fire, and then negotiate a deal with the Houthis where they will allow more ships through in exchange for U.S. pressure on Netanyahu.

Otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if Netanyahu announces the end of his military operation on Jan. 20, 2025, as Trump is being sworn in. Similar to how Iran released the hostages during Reagan's swearing-in ceremony.

[7,052,770]

Republicans have been promising a recession for over 3 years but maybe they'll finally be right one day!

[Banana Republican]

If they're going to vote for Biden against Trump, why wouldn't they tell pollsters that?

The purpose of answering a poll is not to say the truth of what you will do, but to send the message that you want to send.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NY 3 GE shows that's Rs continue to lose ground in Special eDays

[KaiserDave]

The economy is not getting worse. This is just...completely untrue. Read the extensive reports of the Vermont Legislative JFO, the economy isn't getting worse, it just isn't.

[heatcharger]

The economy is not getting worse. This is just...completely untrue. Read the extensive reports of the Vermont Legislative JFO, the economy isn't getting worse, it just isn't.

I couldn’t help but laugh.

[GAinDC]

The economy is not getting worse. This is just...completely untrue. Read the extensive reports of the Vermont Legislative JFO, the economy isn't getting worse, it just isn't.

What is the Vermont Legislative JFO? Never heard of them

[KaiserDave]

Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office, trained economists whose job is to provide legislators with a comprehensive economic assessment, every state has it and they'll say the same thing. Which is that economic fortunes, while looking quite sour in 2022, have improved. Part of my job to read this stuff.