Which polling scenario is closer to the truth?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which polling scenario is closer to the truth? That the 2024 election will look like a repeat of 2020 or that Trump is on track for a landslide win?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 290 map we don't need GA or NC but AZ is very important for S and the 279, it's based on turnout not polls and there are more Ds especially in MI, WI and PA PA MC polls are just wrong

[7,052,770]

There are too many people who hate Trump for a "landslide" victory to be plausible. If (god forbid, and I mean that more strongly than anything else I've ever said that phrase about) he does win, he'll be scraping out a low turnout sh**tshow, not winning in a landslide.

I'm always amused how Republicans will mock Democrats for how much they hate Trump ("Trump Derangement Syndrome" and all that) and at the same time be perplexed at how motivated Democrats are to vote against him and his lackeys.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

2020 repeat is more likely.
But a 2016 repeat is more likely than a Biden landslide.

Because at the end of the day, this election will be very close wither way.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A landslide for either candidate is not feasible, therefore option one.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Despite what the polling says, trump winning in a landslide would be one of the most bizarre outcomes in our history. I cannot fathom how he could improve on his last two performances. If he wins, it’ll be close.

[2,284,967]

Despite what the polling says, trump winning in a landslide would be one of the most bizarre outcomes in our history. I cannot fathom how he could improve on his last two performances. If he wins, it’ll be close.

The economy getting worse and the migration issues in blue cities can put Biden in a tough spot as well as the 'burbs swinging back from their COVID spook.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Despite what the polling says, trump winning in a landslide would be one of the most bizarre outcomes in our history. I cannot fathom how he could improve on his last two performances. If he wins, it’ll be close.

The economy getting worse and the migration issues in blue cities can put Biden in a tough spot as well as the 'burbs swinging back from their COVID spook.

Except the midterm suggests Dems probably continue their suburban gains overall. Dems held up well even in suburbs with Historic downballot lag.


You’d think all this bad showing would show up in election results at some point - so far the only bad sign for Dems is that nonwhite turnout was low in 2022 but Dems still maintained decent margins.


And if the argument is all these non voters heavily favor Trump (questionable), then how are we even sure they pull up in 2024, which most people on this forum expect to be a lower turnout election than 2020?