Gallup confirms the crosstabs for Trump support w/ blacks, youths, & hispanics

[Redban]

VERY bad news for the poll un-skewers

https://news.gallup.com/poll/609776/democrats-lose-ground-black-hispanic-adults.aspx?

Cliffs:

- Democratic Advantage at Record Lows Among Black and Hispanic Adults

- Although Democrats continue to hold a formidable advantage over Republicans among non-Hispanic Black adults in the U.S., their current 47-point lead is the smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.

- Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020

- Likewise, Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English.

- Adults aged 30 to 49 became more Democratic between 2013 and 2018, but since then have returned to being roughly equally divided (R+2). If these figures hold in 2024, it would be the first presidential election year since 2004 that Dems have been at a deficit among 30- to 49-year-olds.

- Adults aged 18-29 are D+8.  They were D+21 in 2020. If these figures hold in 2024, it would be the first presidential election year since 2000 that Dems haven’t had a double-digit advantage among 18- to 29-year-olds

- The ONLY group that did not see a decline in Democratic ID and an increase in Republican ID is adults with post-graduate degrees

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Is Gallup still trustworthy? They aren’t bad with approvals but I thought they were discredited as a bellweather a while back. I could be wrong though

[GAinDC]

and yet even with ALL these shifts in their direction, Republicans only picked up 9 seats in the House and lost a seat in the Senate

[DrScholl]

You all are so obsessed with what supposed "unskewers" think that you have to spam the board with these sort of posts.

Gallup doesn't even poll presidential elections anymore because they screwed up so badly. As GAinDC already mentioned none of this has shown up in election results. Party ID has always been a tricky number which is why pollsters don't weight by. Either the numbers aren't accurate or pollsters are picking up on people who never turn out to vote.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Gallup isn't right Trump is not gaining with blks and Latinos this is a Redban threaf

[ProgressiveModerate]

and yet even with ALL these shifts in their direction, Republicans only picked up 9 seats in the House and lost a seat in the Senate

Yeah this is the crazy thing. There is such a delta between what midterm, special elections, and primaries indicate vs what polling indicates. Obviously, neither are perfect metrics but they're the 2 biggest metrics we have and keep pointing in opposite directions.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

1/3 rd of blks and Latinos are impoverished and 20/200 M whites are impoverished and Ds outvoted Rs 65/60 M eDays that's not gaining with blk and Latinos when we won the PVI in 20 80/75 M and 22 71/60 M

Rs haven't won PVI in Prez campaign since 2004

Trump tax cuts for rich is polarized in blk and Latino communities

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

You take polls with a grain of salt until we vote them if the evidence shows that it affirms what that pollster said is true at full value, we haven't voted yet and George Floyd got 33 M where are blk reparations. By the way Hollywood Celebrities and black and Brown Football, Basketball and Baseball players support amnesty and Reparations they are connected with Oprag

7/33 K can be taken out of the Trump tax cuts for rich

[CheapDollarEra?]

You take polls with a grain of salt until we vote them if the evidence shows that it affirms what that pollster said is true at full value, we haven't voted yet and George Floyd got 33 M where are blk reparations. By the way Hollywood Celebrities and black and Brown Football, Basketball and Baseball players support amnesty and Reparations they are connected with Oprag

Only ADO(A)S demand reparations for ADO(A)S. Most non ADOS moderates (which includes some non-ADO(A)S blacks) are against the idea.

[SnowLabrador]

and yet even with ALL these shifts in their direction, Republicans only picked up 9 seats in the House and lost a seat in the Senate

Yeah this is the crazy thing. There is such a delta between what midterm, special elections, and primaries indicate vs what polling indicates. Obviously, neither are perfect metrics but they're the 2 biggest metrics we have and keep pointing in opposite directions.

Hot take: There'll be record ticket-splitting in November. It won't be enough for Democrats to hold the Senate, but I could see them flipping the house while Trump flips the Big Six states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, and WI).

[GAinDC]

I’m against unskewing polls simply as a form of denial, but I do think it’s fair to scrutinize polling after some high profile misses through several recent cycles.

I personally do believe that Republicans will gain with POC, but it’s not gonna happen under Trump. Opinions on him are too set in stone, and he has built his political brand on white resentment. Voters of color understand that.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Yeah, I concur with the others in this thread. These sort of shifts would be playing out in elections if they were actually happening.

“But special elections have such low turnout rates, they can’t accurately represent voting patterns!”
Sure, but polling crosstabs with sample sizes of 20 people can?

[Redban]

Yeah, I concur with the others in this thread. These sort of shifts would be playing out in elections if they were actually happening.

“But special elections have such low turnout rates, they can’t accurately represent voting patterns!”
Sure, but polling crosstabs with sample sizes of 20 people can?

20 is hyperbole. They have at least a couple hundred (sometimes over a thousand). They weigh the sample to reflect the population's demographics

Special elections usually draw out  the highly educated, who are heavily Democrat. The Republican base are regular folks who are so busy living their lives that they don't even know the special elections are happening

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Yeah, I concur with the others in this thread. These sort of shifts would be playing out in elections if they were actually happening.

“But special elections have such low turnout rates, they can’t accurately represent voting patterns!”
Sure, but polling crosstabs with sample sizes of 20 people can?

20 is hyperbole. They have at least a couple hundred (sometimes over a thousand). They weigh the sample to reflect the population's demographics

Special elections usually draw out  the highly educated, who are heavily Democrat. The Republican base are regular folks who are so busy living their lives that they don't even know the special elections are happening

And you lecture me on using hyperbole.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, call me crazy, but the other side of this is that Gallup is showing the same thing simply because they're having the same issues as other pollsters are.

Nothing of empirical evidence and actual election results shows that black voters identify nearly 20% Republican or that Democrats only have an 8% lead with young voters. Polling (only in the last 6-12 months, I might add) is quite literally the *only* thing that is showing that.

[Redban]

Gallup sample size: 1426 Hispanic adults, 1170 Black adults, and 1636 adults aged 18-29.

The margin of error is smaller than the crosstabs for all those Biden vs Trump polls that come out every day. Those polls will use maybe 100-150 black and Hispanic adults