If Democrats are truly fractured, why is Biden doing so much better than Trump in primaries?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like the mainstream narrative in pundit circles is that generally the Dem base is more fractured about Biden than the Republicans about Trump - progressives and Arab Americans are angry at Biden over the Israeli-Palestine situation, Democrats are rapidly losing support with non-whites, ect.

Yet so far in the primaries we have, Biden has performed way better than Trump in terms of % of the vote received, including in states like Nevada where "none of these candidates" was an option and New Hampshire where people could write in whoever they wanted.

Is this because the alternatives to Biden in the Democratic Primary are less viable? Is it because anti-Biden Democrats are less likely to vote than anti-Trump Republicans? Is the narrative that Biden and Dems are really fractured just wrong? A combination of all of these possibilities?

[GAinDC]

It’s because Dems aren’t fractured — at least when it comes to Biden vs Trump

[Del Tachi]

Donald Trump is still less popular among Republicans than Joe Biden is among Democrats, and somewhat always has been.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Well, Biden’s weaknesses have never really been among partisan Democrats or high-propensity voters, ones most likely to vote in a primary…

Still hard to suss out.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden's problems with Democrats are the low propensity voters that only show up in Presidential elections. Ie ancestral Democrats in the Appalachia are probably those answering the polls for someone else in the Democratic Primary, but they are relatively low propensity and don't show up in primaries (or even the midterms).

Similarly, black/Hispanic turnout in primaries (and midterms) has been quite low, and it's very possible that a lot of the ones planning to vote for Trump did not vote in 2022 or the primaries.

[wbrocks67]

Well, Biden’s weaknesses have never really been among partisan Democrats or high-propensity voters, ones most likely to vote in a primary…

Still hard to suss out.

If that's the logic then, then Trump should have no problem then with his own GOP "high propensity voters" in his own primary.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Well, Biden’s weaknesses have never really been among partisan Democrats or high-propensity voters, ones most likely to vote in a primary…

Still hard to suss out.

If that's the logic then, then Trump should have no problem then with his own GOP "high propensity voters" in his own primary.

He’s not having any problem with them. He’s basically losing only (former) GOP suburban voters who now either quasi-identify as Republicans or have fully abandoned the label but still participate in GOP primaries to Haley. And most of these people went Biden in 2020.

Like river walk said, the softness of Biden’s support in GE polling is largely with blocs that don’t turn out for primaries or special elections anyway, making his overall situation hard to read.

I wouldn’t point to primary performance as necessarily predictive for the GE given that. But it does confirm trends we have already seen for several elections now: Ds will continue to get college educated whites, GOP has gone full MAGA, etc.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I feel like the obvious answer is that he doesn't have a serious challenger.

Then again, Haley losing a primary that doesn't mean anything to "none of the above" by 30 points kinda makes her look like not that serious of a challenger anymore, tbh.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While you can definitely say that he isn't facing as competitive of a primary, and less voters are turning out for that reason, one would think literally anybody would be preferable to him if he was as unpopular as posited among his own party members.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Because polls aren't votes as I keep saying you can take primary polls but GE polls seriously

[Cyrusman]

What defines him doing well in the primary?  He doesn't have a challenger and is the incumbent president, so what else would we expect?

He got 96% of the vote in the SC primary being the main person on the ballot and honestly the only "real" Dem nominee for 2024, in a low turnout election.

I don't think going off of that tells us anything about the general election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden is running behind Trump 2020 primary margins.

[Joe Biden 2028]

President Biden is far more popular than polls suggest

The "low approval" polls is because he is viewed as a old straight white male. When it comes to actual job performance, Democrats think he's doing a good job

Does anyone really think Obama or Harris would have such low approval ratings with this booming economy and many legislative achivments?

[Birdish]

Biden is running behind Trump 2020 primary margins.

How so?

Biden wasn't on the ballot in New Hampshire while Nevada and South Carolina canceled their primaries in 2020.

Biden probably will run behind Trump at the end of the day, but Obama also ran behind Trump. So did Bill Clinton for that matter. Trump's 2020 primary performance was impressive.

[Cyrusman]

President Biden is far more popular than polls suggest

The "low approval" polls is because he is viewed as a old straight white male. When it comes to actual job performance, Democrats think he's doing a good job

Does anyone really think Obama or Harris would have such low approval ratings with this booming economy and many legislative achivments?

I think its way more than just that. While Dems are crazy about identity politics I don't think this is the only reason. If Gavin Newsom or Roy Cooper was president, i doubt their approvals would be where Biden is

[Ferguson97]

Biden is running behind Trump 2020 primary margins.

[Joe Biden 2028]

President Biden is far more popular than polls suggest

The "low approval" polls is because he is viewed as a old straight white male. When it comes to actual job performance, Democrats think he's doing a good job

Does anyone really think Obama or Harris would have such low approval ratings with this booming economy and many legislative achivments?

I think its way more than just that. While Dems are crazy about identity politics I don't think this is the only reason. If Gavin Newsom or Roy Cooper was president, i doubt their approvals would be where Biden is

The media loves Newsom. The media loved Obama.

A huge part of the current media narrative is because the media never cared for Biden. They did not want him to be the nominee. He was the frontrunner but only got a fraction of airtime compared to Buttigieg, who had close to zero support in the rest of the nation. I wonder why...

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

President Biden is far more popular than polls suggest

The "low approval" polls is because he is viewed as a old straight white male. When it comes to actual job performance, Democrats think he's doing a good job

Does anyone really think Obama or Harris would have such low approval ratings with this booming economy and many legislative achivments?

I think its way more than just that. While Dems are crazy about identity politics I don't think this is the only reason. If Gavin Newsom or Roy Cooper was president, i doubt their approvals would be where Biden is

The media loves Newsom. The media loved Obama.

A huge part of the current media narrative is because the media never cared for Biden. They did not want him to be the nominee. He was the frontrunner but only got a fraction of airtime compared to Buttigieg, who had close to zero support in the rest of the nation. I wonder why...

This. He might not exactly be loved by the media/hollywood types like Obama was or like Whitmer/Newsom/Harris etc would be, but the truth is the median voter does not care about those people much aside from information/entertainment (the “information” part is ironically is also dragging Biden down) and thus does not care what they have to say or what they think. A 55 year old suburban mom from the Midwest does not care about what Snoop Dogg, Michael Rapaport etc have to say about the election. Biden won in 2020 cause he realized this and thus was the only candidate to make an effort to reach out to these voters and they’re gonna be a big help to him in 2024.

[Senator Incitatus]

Is he? There hasn’t yet been a state where both were on the ballot simultaneously. Trump got 100,000 more votes than the Biden write-in option in New Hampshire, a Democratic state.

The issue isn’t that Democrats are “fractured”—it’s that they’re unpopular.

[Beet]

Is he? There hasn’t yet been a state where both were on the ballot simultaneously. Trump got 100,000 more votes than the Biden write-in option in New Hampshire, a Democratic state.

The issue isn’t that Democrats are “fractured”—it’s that they’re unpopular.

Exactly. Once Trump is the presumptive R nominee, and more states vote where they are both on the ballot and both presumptive nominees, we can see who gets more votes in R states, D states and swing states.

[mjba257]

Here's something worth noting - a lot of the young leftists that dislike Biden aren't actually registered Democrats. Many are registered independents, so they can't vote in a closed primary.

[Birdish]

Is he? There hasn’t yet been a state where both were on the ballot simultaneously. Trump got 100,000 more votes than the Biden write-in option in New Hampshire, a Democratic state.

The issue isn’t that Democrats are “fractured”—it’s that they’re unpopular.

I'd argue the NH Republican primary was considered more competitive than the Democrat one, hence the turnout advantage. And that a good chunk of Haley's vote total came from Biden voters.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Trump lose in 2020.
Biden won in 2020.
Biden is the incumbent.
No well know candidate tried to primary Biden for this election.
No primary candidate consolidated the antizionist vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If the Hur report is to hurt Biden we should get an indication of that in the Michigan primary. What better opportunity is Phillips going to have than this?

[DaleCooper]

If the media is capable of printing anything but lies, I've yet to see them do it.