What is your 2024 battleground map?

[oldtimer]

Tossup New Jersey and "realistic map" don't go together.

There has been only 1 single poll of New Jersey, one Congressional District that points towards a 2021 Murphy result, and tons of New York polling that says Hochul 2022 for Biden.

Until New Jersey polls say it's safe Biden, I have to go with what we have.

It could be like Murphy, a Biden +3, but can't be more Democrat than New York which is currently Biden +9.

[Crumpets]

Tossup New Jersey and "realistic map" don't go together.

Not to mention the combo tossup NJ along with titanium blue NH.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I still have the 235-226 battleground map

I basically agree with this "six swing states" map.  Some other states aren't completely safe (NC, FL, MN, NH, ME, NE-02, NM), but they don't really matter because they wouldn't flip until after the election were decided.

Of the six swing states, I think Trump is a decent favorite in Georgia, and the other five are pretty much tossups.  That's why I think that Trump is a slight favorite in the general election right now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup New Jersey and "realistic map" don't go together.

There has been only 1 single poll of New Jersey, one Congressional District that points towards a 2021 Murphy result, and tons of New York polling that says Hochul 2022 for Biden.

Until New Jersey polls say it's safe Biden, I have to go with what we have.

It could be like Murphy, a Biden +3, but can't be more Democrat than New York which is currently Biden +9.

You're looking at polls in way too much of a vaccuum. By this logic Biden is going to win Pennsylvania by more than New Jersey, or almost as much as Trump will win Utah by.

[oldtimer]

Tossup New Jersey and "realistic map" don't go together.

There has been only 1 single poll of New Jersey, one Congressional District that points towards a 2021 Murphy result, and tons of New York polling that says Hochul 2022 for Biden.

Until New Jersey polls say it's safe Biden, I have to go with what we have.

It could be like Murphy, a Biden +3, but can't be more Democrat than New York which is currently Biden +9.

You're looking at polls in way too much of a vaccuum. By this logic Biden is going to win Pennsylvania by more than New Jersey, or almost as much as Trump will win Utah by.

And yet New York was better for Republicans than Pennsylvania in the midterms.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup New Jersey and "realistic map" don't go together.

There has been only 1 single poll of New Jersey, one Congressional District that points towards a 2021 Murphy result, and tons of New York polling that says Hochul 2022 for Biden.

Until New Jersey polls say it's safe Biden, I have to go with what we have.

It could be like Murphy, a Biden +3, but can't be more Democrat than New York which is currently Biden +9.

You're looking at polls in way too much of a vaccuum. By this logic Biden is going to win Pennsylvania by more than New Jersey, or almost as much as Trump will win Utah by.

And yet New York was better for Republicans than Pennsylvania in the midterms.

Midterm turnout is different from presidential turnout.